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This is why we have numbers. The bolded part is not true. Frazier has been thrown a fastball 52.8% of the time, up a whopping 0.8% from last year when he saw a fastball 52% of the time. Contrary to the traditional though, having speed on the bases does not increase the amount of fastballs thrown to hitters behind the speed guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Never ever ever ever ever tell me about runs scored or RBI when talking about "norms". Those are results, NOT statistics. Like pitcher W-L record.
I don't care if he hits .290, if he is still a sub .300 OBP guy, he is a liability.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
Percentages are very misleading. Tell me who the better base stealer is: A guy with a 100% SB% or a guy with a 82.3% SB %. The first guy is Brian McCann from 2012, who attempted all of 3 SB that year. The second one is BJ Upton, who is 14/17 on the year for 2014. But since McCann had a higher SB % that means he's got a higher propensity to be successful at stealing bases in certain situations? Laughable. It's all about sample size and % doesn't tell you anything about sample size. Brian McCann had a 100% SB % in 2012. But is he a better base stealer than BJ Upton? Absolutely not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
It's like asking what the relative humidity is outside. Well it's 85%. What does that tell me? Nothing because I don't even know how hot it is. 85% relative humidity in 90 degree weather is a hell of a lot different than it is in 40 weather. That's why percentages are very misleading. You almost never have the full picture.
You have to look at it without being ignorant.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
They are statistics. Now they are dependent upon how others on your team do which is different than sabermetrics which is typically more individual driven, but they also explain how a person performs over the course of a given period of time. Then you take the average of them all and you can figure out what they can be expected to do. That's the absolute definition of a statistic. You may not like that, but it is a statistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
You 100% all in on sabermetric folks have redefined what you think are the "real" statistics to make the rest of the baseball world who trust their eyes and their gut and their observational skills feel like they don't know anything. I'm way too informed to allow that crap as are most others on here. Statistics don't take into account extra work in the cage, corrective eye surgery, injuries that may or may not be disclosed, mental changes by changing a person's position in a line up. Until they come up with statistics for those things, the eye test and the gut will still be viable tools in baseball.
Not ignorant, just proving you wrong. Saying SB% is greater than number of stolen bases is absolutely ridiculous. Obviously Brian McCann isn't a better base stealer than BJ Upton, but under your thinking that it is, he could be just looking at the way one statistic is displayed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
What if La Stella goes 0-15 over the course of 4 games in the lead off spot for the Braves. He would still have a higher OBP and BA than Upton. Is he still the better option in lead off?
I would love for you to find me an example as grossly horrible as the one I gave you towards the argument that # SB > SB %. You won't be able to.
The problem is this fight will never be resolved. Sabermetric people will always find some statistic or some historical post to say why something in the short term won't work in the long term, even though what's working in the short term is beneficial for the team. Eye test and gamers will look at the short term and adjust on a day to day or series by series basis. Probably lose extra games in the process due to their inability to step away from the situation and look at what guys have typically done over their career.
So tell me this. BJ continues his .275 OBP average over the coarse of the next few weeks. However, Freddie Freeman goes into a slump and it takes Evan Gattis a while to get going once he comes off the DL. As a result, BJ Upton isn't scoring runs at as high of a clip. He's doing the same thing he is currently doing from the lead off position, which is getting on base rarely, but the guys behind him isn't knocking him in. Is BJ now less effective as a player since he is scoring runs at a lower rate even though he's doing everything else the same as he was?Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
Well something is helping Frazier this year and that something is Billy Hamilton being on base in front of him is my guess. Maybe they can't afford to have both of them on in front of Votto, Meso and Bruce. Idk but Frazier is out of his skull this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
No he's not less effective. His teammates are being less effective and anyone who knows anything about baseball could see that. That still doesn't negate the fact that runs are a statistic. Does it negatively affect BJ's runs scored even though he's not directly involved with the decrease in runs scored? Absolutely. But that doesn't necessitate change on BJ's part. That's why most managers wouldn't make a change with BJ but to Freeman. Day off, change his spot in the line up, something like that. It was pretty easy to tell that Freeman was sucking it up when his BA dropped almost 25 points in 2 weeks back in early June. We struggled then and didn't score runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
But until that happens there's no need to adjust anything. What you said is going to happen at some point and it could be tomorrow and last a week. BJ may not get on again the next week or Freeman may go 0 fer with BJ on base and our runs/game goes down the toilet. We all know that right now BJ isn't a lead off hitter. You ideally want a higher OBP, a higher BA, and a better contact bat. But why change right now when what he's doing is helping the team the way it is? Might it screw us a few games if he slumps and Fredi doesn't adjust? Probably. But you don't mess with something that's working like it is right now.
That something is BABIP. He has a .330 BABIP this year, where it was .269 a year ago. He's more lucky this year. All his other peripherals are around the same. The guy has always been a good hitter, but Dusty Baker would never give him the opportunity he deserved. Todd had a .225 ISO and a 121 wRC+ in his first full MLB season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Do you actually think fredi is the one making the decision to hold on to uggla?Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
My point is, going with the hot hand is a foolish decision the large majority of the time. If you want to optimize things and put yourself into a position to have sustained success, you make the change that needs to be made. If you wait, like Fredi typically does, then you may just cost the team a playoff spot.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
It's really not a novel concept to put your best on base guy in the lead off spot, because him getting on base is the most important aspect of his job.
Does he make the final decision? No. Does he have input on the decision? As my son said at supper tonight, "you betcha".Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Uggla still being a brave is on wren/liberty. How many at bats has fredi given uggla? Since 6/11, FG has let uggla hit 11 times. No way this is fredi's decisionQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Frazier has gotten much better with his plate discipline. Time with Votto well spent. Not swinging at balls has improved his game.
As to Upton he's actually swinging at more balls out of the zone this year as opposed to last. Check his plate discipline numbers of old compared to now and you will see why he won't be retuning to old BJ. Contact% still drastically down from old BJ. His contact rate is on balls in the zone is down 10% from his 2011 good year. Line drive % is down from last years debacle.
What Pioneer says when he loses an argument. Again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
There's a reason why every manager from college to MLB pinch runs later in the game when they don't have speed on base. Just getting on base isn't enough. I'd take BJ Upton on 1st base 3 out of 10 times over a slow guy 4 out of 10 times because BJ can stay out of double plays better, steal a base better, go from 1st to 3rd better, tag up and move to the next base better, score from 2nd on a hit better, tag up and score better and score on a squeeze/sacrifice better to make up for that 1 less time he's on base. The other 3 times he's a better scoring player than the slow guy. After saying all of that I do think the Braves need to go get a leadoff hitter and another SP. BJ is not the answer for the entire season and when it comes time for the playoffs or the final push for the playoffs the Braves need a more reliable player at the top imo.
Most of what you are talking about falls on the GM. It's not as cut and dried as this guy sucks, this guy looks better- even though that's what is should be about. There are salary implications on both the veteran and the minor league player because once you call up the minor league guy his clock starts. And the minor league guy is someone that has zero or very little MLB experience so, the odds are you aren't going to get all that much more production than a guy that you are already paying a couple of million dollars to at the MLB level is risky at best. Plus, you have to consider whether a guy is on the 40 man roster or not and then you have to make corresponding moves, which may mean releasing a guy that your team may not want to put out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
1. You yourself have talked about the rate needed to be considered effective at stealing bases which is what I'm saying. But keep that "cred" up Toddy boy. Cool points all around.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
2. 49 extra runs when the playoffs come down to a very small number of games separating teams MIGHT just come in handy. That was one of the more asinine posts I've seen. But then again people opposing me in these arguments routinely spout idiotic things.
Show me the numbers that prove having speed creates more runs scored than getting on base does? The threat of a stolen base or more speed to go from 1st to 3rd means very little when the players hitting behind you hit a lot of extra base hits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Here's what you will get if you continue to hit BJ Upton #1 and Andrelton Simmons #2. Freddie Freeman batting with no one on base. I'd much rather have Freddie Freeman hitting with a runner on base 40% of the time than him hitting with a runner on base less than 30% of the time.
What does pinch running have to do with getting on base? Your scenario fits exactly what we are saying Dawg61. There's a reason that guy that's PR isn't starting and the guy that actually got on base is.... Yeah speed is better once you get on base but it's more important to get there first. So when you need speed and only speed AKA late in the game you put it in AFTER the better hitter has gotten on.
Just curious why you think Simmons obp won't continue to go up. Hasn't Simmons batted 8th pretty much his whole career? Wouldn't you say hitting 8th in the nl is the toughest slot?Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
When Fredi is making the decision to pinch run someone, you know what it does? It gets Evan Gattis's bat out of the line up for the rest of an extra inning game. The only thing more foolish than Fredi's decision to pinch run Jordan Schafer for Evan Gattis in extra innings against the Angels when that run meant nothing is batting BJ Upton in the lead off spot. The only thing Fredi did when he made that decision is take Gattis's bat out of the line up for the rest of the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Because he is a hacker. He lacks patience at the plate. He has not learned to take a walk. He's the best defensive short stop in baseball, maybe ever, but he is a hacker at the plate.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Awwwww......did I hurt your wittle insecure feelings again?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
You talking about someone trying to get "cool" points is laughable considering you lead the board in "hey, look at me! Look at all the things I was right about!!!" threads started by someone.
1. I do talk about stolen base percentages, but I also talk about them in the proper context. Something you routinely fail to do when talking about statistics.
2. We'll see how Upton finishes things out. If he continues to perform like he has he can certainly change his numbers.
Well as an 8th place hitter wouldn't you want someone who hacks? You don't wanna walk with runners on hitting 8th esp with 2 outs. I'm not sold on Simmons hitting 2nd either, but he could have a different approach hitting 2nd. Maybe we'll see a different approach from Simmons in the 2-hole. He won a batting title in the minors so he has hitting abilityQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Pinch running is a glimpse into every manager ever that they value speed on the basepaths. KB21 said it makes no difference that it only matters to get on base. My argument is that the great speed more than makes up the difference once they both get on then the increased OBP the slower guy has. I am NOT saying the Braves should use BJ as the leadoff hitter the entire year because he sucks. I'm just arguing against the theory that OBP is all that matters. I'll take Billy Hamilton's .300 OBP over La'Stella's .400 OBP all day every day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
You didn't address your statement on 49 extra runs being "negligible". I would like an explanation on how you came to that conclusion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
You're missing the point I'm making. If EVERY MANAGER values speed above getting on base then there wouldn't be that need to PR because the speed would be STARTING. Every manager seems to agree with us. Obviously speed is preferable once on base all things equal, but it's not worth .100 points of OBP.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
On MLB Network, they were talking about the hitting/offense crisis in baseball right now, and one of the things that they talked about was speed as a way to create more runs/offense. Very interesting discussion. They talked about how speed can change the momentum of a game and it changes the way a pitcher attacks the hitter and pitches. All of the ex-MLB players agreed on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
If you are a good baserunner, as good baserunning doesn't necessarily mean the fastest, and you can steal bases for your team, you can increase the chances of scoring for your team. A runner on second with no one out has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first with no one out. If you want stats that back it up, look at the run expectancy tables. If you have a guy that can take an extra base on a single and get to third from first rather than just to second, you open up a lot more scoring options as well because then wild pitches, balks, and if there are less than two outs a sac fly comes into play.
0.3 runs a game = less than 1 run a game. Less than 1 run a game = basically the same since you don't score runs in percentages.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
And I will win a lot more games with La Stella leading off than you will with Billy Hamilton leading off, particularly since Hamilton's stolen base percentage is barely at the break even mark at 74.4% (75% being the break even mark).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Show you the numbers that prove it is better to have a fast runner on 1st over a slow player? Is that what you are asking me? Seriously? So speed has no value whatsoever on offense now? Ok geniusQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
There aren't a lot Rickey Henderson's, or even Vince Coleman's out there right now. What's Shafer hitting? .182?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
But I do think you are going to start to see some more Billy Hamilton's in the future with the way offense is going.
2004 ALCS GAME 4
Most famous stolen base I can remember. 9th inning Kevin Millar (very slow.. 7 career SB.. .383 OBP) leads off the inning with a BB. Dave Roberts (very fast..243 career SB.. .337 OBP) pinch runs and steals 2nd leading the Red Sox on a historic comeback. You would have let Roberts lead the inning off 61?
Speed has very little to do with that though. Speed does not equal good base running. Jordan Schafer has great speed, but he's a horrible base runner.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
The thing with BJ is that he is actually a very good base runner. He just isn't on base enough to utilize that tool.
Folks when I talk about a lack of logic when opposing me in these debates this is what I'm referring to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ses-lack-valueQuote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Overall, there is very little value to the stolen base, as there is more risk that you run into an out. There is clearly not as much value in a stolen base as there is in getting on base in the first place.
Does that percentage factor in being picked off? Btw BJ Upton and his shit OBP has 41 Runs scored and La'Stella and his .360 OBP has 11 runs scored. Billy Hamilton 41 Runs and 34 SB, Todd Frazier 53 Runs and 13 SB, La Stella 11 Runs (9 before today) and 2 SB. And yes we all know La'Stella has a lot less ABs. Before today he only had 9 runs scored. 9!!Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21