Keep an eye on next Tuesday

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03-20-2022, 12:47 PM
parabrave

Hey you might want to stage out of CCs place. Quick access to the north/south Corridors and East West corridors.
03-20-2022, 12:52 PM
shoeless joe

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Hey Vdog every time I check on the Models they keep on moving the severe threat more to the south. Think CC and Shoeless need to replenish their bunkers?>

Appreciate the concern…but I only have a family place down in the pine belt. I’m back home in the golden triangle now. Back to the real world tomorrow. We look to be out of the bullseye up here but I’ll keep an eye out just in case.

Back in the 90s two separate tornadoes hit our place in smith county. Destroyed some timber and one threw a 14 ft Jon boat about 150 yards and wrapped it around a light pole. I always pay special attention to the warnings when I’m down that way.
03-20-2022, 01:11 PM
parabrave

Hunter going to be getting a lot of Intv walks for now on.

Sorry Wrong thread
03-20-2022, 06:32 PM
Dolphus Raymond

It looks like it may be bad. Any update?
03-20-2022, 06:36 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond

It looks like it may be bad. Any update?

Potential is there but I'm also seeing something that may mitigate things. Some of the models are showing this more of a qlcs event and less of a discrete cell event. If this ends up being the case Tuesday will be more of a damaging wind threat than a tornado threat. But if discrete cells form out in the warm sector then it could be bad. I'm waiting for the 7:00pm model runs to start coming in around 9:00pm and then the SPC update at 1:00am.
03-20-2022, 06:39 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Potential is there but I'm also seeing something that may mitigate things. Some of the models are showing this more of a qlcs event and less of a discrete cell event. If this ends up being the case Tuesday will be more of a damaging wind threat than a tornado threat. But if discrete cells form out in the warm sector then it could be bad. I'm waiting for the 7:00pm model runs to start coming in around 9:00pm and then the SPC update at 1:00am.

Thanks man! Keep us posted! You're info is invaluable!
03-20-2022, 07:01 PM
ArrowDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Definitely been a trend doing that. Also, a lot of the models showing a qlcs type event instead of discrete cells. If that materializes then be more of a wind event and less of a tornado threat. Just got to see how it all plays out.

I've also noticed things trending more to the southwest corner of the state, and La. Certainly hope it's more of a QLCS event, regardless.
03-20-2022, 07:21 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArrowDawg

I've also noticed things trending more to the southwest corner of the state, and La. Certainly hope it's more of a QLCS event, regardless.

I've been thinking that area will be ground zero for a while. For a couple days a few models tried to push it further north and one is trying to develop things in the SE so there's some disagreement on things. Why I'm very interested in seeing these updates.
03-20-2022, 09:37 PM
parabrave

From NWS New Orleans

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/g...f8f390cbe723f2

You're screwed CC.
03-21-2022, 12:48 AM
defiantdog

The NAM has this thing lining up still and not sporadic. Will be interesting to see the HRRR. Will hopefully know more in about an hour.
03-21-2022, 01:21 AM
parabrave

Wow I just read the NWS shorterm foercast discussion for the New Orleans area and am having brain freeze. Never seen it as long and as detailed.

If you are very bored or want a nerd head explosion here you go:

https://forecast.weather.gov/css/def...ackground1.gif

Sorry try this one.

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossar...t%20Discussion
03-21-2022, 01:26 AM
parabrave

Hey SVD and Scooba Is this a bad graph?/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...90N_87.77W.png

And please decipher it for us
03-21-2022, 01:50 AM
defiantdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Hey SVD and Scooba Is this a bad graph?/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...90N_87.77W.png

And please decipher it for us

That hodograph is really curved
03-21-2022, 05:39 AM
starkvegasdawg

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.
03-21-2022, 09:20 AM
ArrowDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

Are you seeing what I'm seeing from about Meridian down to the coast around noon?
03-21-2022, 10:42 AM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

Hattiesburg or Wiggins.
03-21-2022, 10:56 AM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

So this is bad:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...13N_88.82W.png

And this is not so bad?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...73N_89.30W.png

And this is??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...95N_89.44W.png
03-21-2022, 11:01 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

So this is bad:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...13N_88.82W.png

And this is not so bad?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...73N_89.30W.png

And this is??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...95N_89.44W.png

Explain it to me like I'm 5.
03-21-2022, 11:05 AM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Explain it to me like I'm 4
03-21-2022, 11:50 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArrowDawg

Are you seeing what I'm seeing from about Meridian down to the coast around noon?

I have seen that and it made me pause. I'm just hesitant to think those will be severe due to how far away they are from the heart of the storm. They may be too far out ahead of the best instability and shear to be more than low end severe. Just got to see how the moisture and instability work north.

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