The Thing Everyone Needs to Understand About the Transfer Portal Era

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Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen

Appreciate that link. Ill admit I didn't ace differential equations...... however, Ive been doing the math. Aren't teams building themselves up for a one year run and creating a hole in the roster that will sink them for seasons. I mean if your signing class is 20-30% portal, 1 year guys. Don't you have to sign 20-30% of 1 year guys forever or until finally you sign 25 HS guys and have a void in the upper classes.

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Signing a lot of 1 year guys is a problem, but if you sign 25 guys a year, and redshirt 12 guys, with no attrition, you'd have 112 players. So you can have around 6 or 7 in a class leave if you are signing players with 4 years of eligibility. Signing 4-6 one year players each year would accomplish the same thing for numbers. Of course that ignores that you are going to have natural attrition, presumably at a higher rate than previously because of lax transfer rules. I think you are going to see a lot more transfers with more than 1 year of eligibility moving forward, as people figure out by their RS So year what their role will be and whether they're happy with it. QB's and K's may be an exception. Might see a lot of them transfer as a sophomore or junior, and then if they get passed over again, try to do a grad transfer to a starting position.

If a guy is transferring in his RS sophomore year, most likely he has never played and won't be playing anytime soon. Who is going to want those guys unless they were 4 stars or better out of HS.

A 3 star guy that has never shown anything on tape, might find himself out of football.

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Originally Posted by Hot Rock

If a guy is transferring in his RS sophomore year, most likely he has never played and won't be playing anytime soon. Who is going to want those guys unless they were 4 stars or better out of HS.

A 3 star guy that has never shown anything on tape, might find himself out of football.

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A team like USM will take a RS So that hasn't played for us for the same reason we would take a RS SO who hasn't played for Bama. Having a need plus thinking they are a better risk than the realistic options they have in high school recruits.

But I do think there's going to have to be a reckoning for a lot of players. Unless midtier P5 teams just start trading players, there are going to be a lot more people looking for playing time than there will be G5 teams with spots available.

You'll have a decent number of players looking to go from Blue blood to midtier P5 teams. A decent number of players looking to leave mid tier P5 teams for playing time (presumably to go to G5 schools). A small number of established G5 players looking to move up to P5. Unless you have lots of players that leave schools like say USCe and get picked up by a school like MSU or Ole Miss and vice versa, there are going to be a lot of players left in the cold or transferring to FCS or DII.

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Originally Posted by Johnson85

A team like USM will take a RS So that hasn't played for us for the same reason we would take a RS SO who hasn't played for Bama. Having a need plus thinking they are a better risk than the realistic options they have in high school recruits.

But I do think there's going to have to be a reckoning for a lot of players. Unless midtier P5 teams just start trading players, there are going to be a lot more people looking for playing time than there will be G5 teams with spots available.

You'll have a decent number of players looking to go from Blue blood to midtier P5 teams. A decent number of players looking to leave mid tier P5 teams for playing time (presumably to go to G5 schools). A small number of established G5 players looking to move up to P5. Unless you have lots of players that leave schools like say USCe and get picked up by a school like MSU or Ole Miss and vice versa, there are going to be a lot of players left in the cold or transferring to FCS or DII.

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My point is this: A 3 or even low 4 star RS soph that has not seen the field for Mississippi State is not going to another SEC school and his P5 offers will be few and far between.

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Originally Posted by Hot Rock

My point is this: A 3 or even low 4 star RS soph that has not seen the field for Mississippi State is not going to another SEC school and his P5 offers will be few and far between.

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Right. Just like a RS Soph that has not seen the field for Bama is probably not going to UGA or OSU right now (or vice versa).

Very few of these transfers are going to be making lateral moves. They will mostly be moving "down" for playing time. A small number will be moving "up" after a few good years to show that they can play at a higher level. A small number will be moving because of getting passed by or having disputes with coaches or whatever and have the option to make a lateral move because a lateral school just has a need. And you will occasionally have players taking a coaching change as an opportunity to make a lateral move. But this is mostly going to be players trading a spot on a bench at a more prestigious school for playing time at a less prestigious school.

One of the reasons that MSU (and similarly situated schools) is well suited for the portal is that players leaving will likely have to go G5, so leaving won't be attractive to a lot of players, but we will be an attractive landing spot for G5 players looking to move up and prove themselves as well as for players coming from blue bloods looking for playing time.

Adapt or die, our program has to adapt.