First spring severe threats on the horizon

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03-16-2021, 08:49 AM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout

Thanks for the heads up! We always seem to be in the shooting gallery here lol. Appreciate all y'alls info!
03-16-2021, 09:09 AM
jgunn

Starkvegasdawg, what are you thinking about Olive Branch area?
03-16-2021, 09:52 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgunn

Starkvegasdawg, what are you thinking about Olive Branch area?

You're in the area to catch the first round of storms early in the morning as well as the later rounds in the afternoon. Anywhere in the moderate and enhanced risk areas needs to be weather aware tomorrow. At some point I think the moderate risk area will expand to encompass more of west central MS.
03-16-2021, 11:07 AM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Thanks for the heads up! We always seem to be in the shooting gallery here lol. Appreciate all y'alls info!

They're talking a lot about Jackson and Huntsville. Just like they were Easter last year........
03-16-2021, 11:15 AM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

They're talking a lot about Jackson and Huntsville. Just like they were Easter last year........

Yeah I'm not liking the way this is looking.
03-16-2021, 11:56 AM
shoeless joe

I’m down here in the pine belt (southern smith county) for spring break. Tryin to decide between stayin here or heading back the the golden triangle to ride out the storms...looks like this far south is slightly less volatile. An recommendations from those of you in the know?
03-16-2021, 12:05 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless joe

I’m down here in the pine belt (southern smith county) for spring break. Tryin to decide between stayin here or heading back the the golden triangle to ride out the storms...looks like this far south is slightly less volatile. An recommendations from those of you in the know?

Wow, I had no idea Southern Smith county was a spring break destination, ha!
03-16-2021, 12:05 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless joe

I’m down here in the pine belt (southern smith county) for spring break. Tryin to decide between stayin here or heading back the the golden triangle to ride out the storms...looks like this far south is slightly less volatile. An recommendations from those of you in the know?

Right now it's all a roll of the dice.
03-16-2021, 12:17 PM
shoeless joe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Wow, I had no idea Southern Smith county was a spring break destination, ha!

Ha...I knew I’d prolly get that reaction. Gobblin turkeys and spawning bass have quite a strong draw for me!
03-16-2021, 12:33 PM
Churchill

Is it my imagination or is the forecast kinda deteriorating for central Ms. (Jackson metro area) ?
03-16-2021, 12:34 PM
basedog

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Wow, I had no idea Southern Smith county was a spring break destination, ha!

Me to, but bring me some of dat sweet watermelon's those peeps grow in Smith County!
03-16-2021, 12:39 PM
starkvegasdawg

The news gets grimmer. The moderate risk area has been expanded and they are contemplating an upgrade to a high risk. Below is from the SPC.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO MS AND AL A MORE CONCERNING
SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEAKER ASCENT, DRIVEN BY HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30-40 KT WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT. GIVEN WEAKER
FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND ANY CELL WILL QUICKLY BECOME A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AROUND 00-03Z, INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MS AND INTO AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MS/AL. IF THESE TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED, AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK
COULD BE NECESSARY WITH THE INITIAL DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 06Z
TONIGHT.
03-16-2021, 12:40 PM
State82

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless joe

Ha...I knew I’d prolly get that reaction. Gobblin turkeys and spawning bass have quite a strong draw for me!

Now that's what I'm talkin' 'bout!
03-16-2021, 12:58 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless joe

Ha...I knew I’d prolly get that reaction. Gobblin turkeys and spawning bass have quite a strong draw for me!

I hear ya! Good stuff!
03-16-2021, 01:01 PM
mcain31

I appreciate the you guys. I now live in Columbia and work in Hattiesburg. I'm going to tell my wife to batten down the hatches while I'm at work tomorrow
03-16-2021, 01:03 PM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

The news gets grimmer. The moderate risk area has been expanded and they are contemplating an upgrade to a high risk. Below is from the SPC.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO MS AND AL A MORE CONCERNING
SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEAKER ASCENT, DRIVEN BY HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30-40 KT WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT. GIVEN WEAKER
FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND ANY CELL WILL QUICKLY BECOME A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AROUND 00-03Z, INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MS AND INTO AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MS/AL. IF THESE TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED, AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK
COULD BE NECESSARY WITH THE INITIAL DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

Not good at all. When was the last high risk for this area? I know 4/27/11 was, but can't remember since then. Surely there has been one or two since then.
03-16-2021, 01:14 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Not good at all. When was the last high risk for this area? I know 4/27/11 was, but can't remember since then. Surely there has been one or two since then.

I think in 2014. Maybe 18.
03-16-2021, 03:17 PM
RocketDawg

This morning, we had a couple of rounds of thunderstorms come through. The first was around 2 a.m., the second around 3:30. Quite noisy and lots of lightning. Ended up getting close to 3" rain. Off and on rain continued through around 10, but since then it's been very pleasant in the lower 60s.
03-16-2021, 05:00 PM
Randolph Dupree

I've got to drive from Jackson to Dallas tomorrow. It's a travel day so I can leave and arrive whatever time suits me. Planning on going straight down I20. Any advice on when to head out? Anyway I can miss this stuff?
03-16-2021, 05:48 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

This morning, we had a couple of rounds of thunderstorms come through. The first was around 2 a.m., the second around 3:30. Quite noisy and lots of lightning. Ended up getting close to 3" rain. Off and on rain continued through around 10, but since then it's been very pleasant in the lower 60s.

It started here in Jones County about 12 last night and it's been pouring and thundering ever since.

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