OM Fans Are Setting Themselves Up for Major Disappointment

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

07-20-2019, 12:35 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack Lambert

And Ole Miss played 9 P-5 schools and only won two. They have basically suck with two of the best recruiting classes they have ever had and the past three years they have only 16 games. They lost all their offensive power. They are not suddenly getting better. You can say Memphis and Cal are not any good but lets be honest Ole Miss isn't any good either. I imagine their fans are feeling they will win that game.

Like Shotgun said, some people obviously have no clue about what their talent level is right now. They are horrible and it does not matter if Nick Saban is coaching defense with Sean Payton coaching offense. They are going to suck ass this year. They are a touchdown underdog to Memphis. Cal and Arkansas are toss up games. The statistical likelihood of them starting 4-0 is probably under 10 % if odds were to be put on it (winning 3 50/50 games would be a probability of about 12 % and they are going to be an underdog in the first game so that % is a little high). Ole Miss starting 4-0 would not surprise some of our fans but some of our same fans would be surprised if we won 8 games, which is much more likely to happen odds wise.
07-20-2019, 01:18 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Sirmon would've killed it in 2017, eh?

I bet we would have been better than 2016.

Players that can play > a great coach. Coaches can only coach players up or down so much.
07-20-2019, 05:23 AM
99jc

I believe the rebels will be better than you think. They will not lose to Memphis High.
would love to see them go 0-12 me thinks 6-6 or 7-5
07-20-2019, 06:08 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99jc

I believe the rebels will be better than you think. They will not lose to Memphis High.
would love to see them go 0-12 me thinks 6-6 or 7-5

Then you have a good opportunity to make a lot of money in Vegas because no one else does.
07-20-2019, 06:41 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

Then you have a good opportunity to make a lot of money in Vegas because no one else does.

ESPN FPI...
51.4% favorite over Memphis
73.4% favorite over ark
98.7% favorite over sela
73.0% favorite over cal
07-20-2019, 06:59 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

ESPN FPI...
51.4% favorite over Memphis
73.4% favorite over ark
98.7% favorite over sela
73.0% favorite over cal

Their O/U is 4.5 or 5 at every sports book and they will be the gambling underdog or a pickem or an extremely slight favorite in every one of those except SELA. Like I said, if you can get someone dumb enough to give you odds of Ole Miss beating Arkansas and Cal at that %, you should jump all over it because people who do it for a living for money will never give that to you.
07-20-2019, 07:07 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

Their O/U is 4.5 or 5 at every sports book and they will be the gambling underdog or a pickem or an extremely slight favorite in every one of those except SELA.

I don't think they're winning but maybe 5 games out of this group: first 4, vandy, and nmsu. All I'm saying is those 4 games are hardly sure losses for them. That doesn't mean they're good bc they aren't
07-20-2019, 07:11 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

I don't think they're winning but maybe 5 games out of this group: first 4, vandy, and nmsu. All I'm saying is those 4 games are hardly sure losses for them. That doesn't mean they're good bc they aren't

Those 4 games individually are not sure losses, but it's very rare to win that many tossup games in a row. The chances of them starting 4-0 is extremely low and if you were to bet money on it you would get a huge ROI from that bet.
07-20-2019, 07:15 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

Those 4 games individually are not sure losses, but it's very rare to win that many tossup games in a row. The chances of them starting 4-0 is extremely low and if you were to bet money on it you would get a huge ROI from that bet.

That's why my first post in this thread was this...

"There's no way I'd put money on it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 4-0 headed in to Tuscaloosa"

With that said, I'll almost certainly take OM +6 against Memphis. I think it'll be close either way
07-20-2019, 07:19 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

That's why my first post in this thread was this...

"There's no way I'd put money on it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 4-0 headed in to Tuscaloosa"

With that said, I'll almost certainly take OM +6 against Memphis. I think it'll be close either way

If someone doing something with vegas odds of about 12 % doesn't shock you then not much shocks you in the football world. My initial statement stands.
07-20-2019, 07:29 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

If someone doing something with vegas odds of about 12 % doesn't shock you then not much shocks you in the football world. My initial statement stands.

They'll be the favorite in 3 of the 4. I will bet you on that if you disagree
07-20-2019, 07:33 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

They'll be the favorite in 3 of the 4. I will bet you on that if you disagree

If they are a favorite against Cal or Arkansas it will be less than a touchdown and probably a field goal or less. That's a toss up 50/50 type game. If they lose to Memphis, which they are currently a near td underdog, they won't be a favorite in any of them except SELA.
07-20-2019, 07:36 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

If they are a favorite against Cal or Arkansas it will be less than a touchdown and probably a field goal or less. That's a toss up 50/50 type game. If they lose to Memphis, which they are currently a near td underdog, they won't be a favorite in any of them except SELA.

Well you think Memphis is gonna win, so it's a good bet for you. What's the stakes?
07-20-2019, 07:43 AM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Well you think Memphis is gonna win, so it's a good bet for you. What's the stakes?

"Ole Miss will be on the road at 11 am in the blaring hot sun at the end of August. 2 teams that can't stop anyone will be cramping up by the end of the first quarter. Take the over to the bank, whatever it is. Leave the points alone IMO."

That was what I said in the point spread thread. I don't know if they beat Memphis or not. I would lean to not but they could beat them. They could beat every one of those teams, but like both of us have said, it's very unlikely. I will bet you whatever you want to bet that they won't start 4-0, but you won't do that because you know you'd get much better odds at a casino because it's extremely unlikely to happen. You are doing a whole bunch of dancing to get around the fact that you are an MSU poor mouther and an Ole Miss apologist.
07-21-2019, 11:53 AM
justwin

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Hearing Bo Bounds desperately trying to get OM fans excited by feeding them BS false hope & hearing some optimism from Cole Cubelic on the radio yesterday, but I just can't figure what there is to be optimistic about.

I just don't see where the wins come from...

- Moving to 3-4 defense has never worked in year 1
- New QB
- WR unit lost most of it's production
- 2 coordinators that will be attempting to undercut the head coach in an effort to get the head job. I give them till about week 7 before the shit hits the fan.
- Offensive line lost all it's good players

Looking at OM's schedule, I only see 2 certain wins. If OM wins 5-6 games, Matt Luke should be considered in SEC coach of the year conversations.

The only thing that I think OM will be substantially better at this year is limiting the plays its' porous defense has to play because Rich Rod will run the ball more. Also, they are a little lucky in that most of their tossups are at the beginning of the year when they won't be decimated yet & still have hope. I think they would lose more of the tossups if they were on the back-end of the schedule.

I don't see them having much of a chance in the losses.

As unbiased as you can be, tell me where I'm missing the mark

https://i.imgur.com/1j2fKn0.jpg

I've never understood why Bo tries so hard to inflate that extra 20% toward OM. I understand he's trying to sell, but it would be nice if he were more objective.

I agree with your post

My bold prediction for OM is that the rookie plumlee from Oak Grove will be starting QB midyear. Pyscho Matt is going to get hit hard and he's a timebomb for the sideline. I see OM going to default to a running QB Wing T type Offense this year. I'm expecting to see Plumlee / Ealy / Mingo / Elijah Moore as starters by Vandy so they can salvage the fanbase. If I'm OM, I'm starting Plumlee b/c he's not a headcase and can run that wing T O for Richrod.

If they fire Luke after 2019, I can't see them keeping either of the coordinators either. Is RichRod really going to be better than Longo?
07-21-2019, 12:00 PM
msstate7

ETA... forget it
07-21-2019, 12:52 PM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by justwin

I've never understood why Bo tries so hard to inflate that extra 20% toward OM. I understand he's trying to sell, but it would be nice if he were more objective.

I agree with your post

My bold prediction for OM is that the rookie plumlee from Oak Grove will be starting QB midyear. Pyscho Matt is going to get hit hard and he's a timebomb for the sideline. I see OM going to default to a running QB Wing T type Offense this year. I'm expecting to see Plumlee / Ealy / Mingo / Elijah Moore as starters by Vandy so they can salvage the fanbase. If I'm OM, I'm starting Plumlee b/c he's not a headcase and can run that wing T O for Richrod.

If they fire Luke after 2019, I can't see them keeping either of the coordinators either. Is RichRod really going to be better than Longo?

They have a very average OL and a pocket passing qb that can run a little bit (who is smallish for a qb) running the spread option. There is a good chance Plumlee will be starting simply because that hot head will get himself decapitated in that offense in this conference.
07-21-2019, 01:04 PM
ShotgunDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

They have a very average OL and a pocket passing qb that can run a little bit (who is smallish for a qb) running the spread option. There is a good chance Plumlee will be starting simply because that hot head will get himself decapitated in that offense in this conference.

What about their OL personnel makes you think it'll be average?

Average would be impressive
07-21-2019, 01:06 PM
ShotgunDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by justwin

I've never understood why Bo tries so hard to inflate that extra 20% toward OM. I understand he's trying to sell, but it would be nice if he were more objective.

It's all about building his listener base. He knows it's mostly MSU people that listen to his show and thus to build the listener base he needs more OM listeners.

My biggest issue with him is that he's real quick to be "realistic" even to the point being overly pessimistic but refuses to treat OM the same way. If they suck, they suck. Just say so.
07-21-2019, 01:10 PM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

What about their OL personnel makes you think it'll be average?

Average would be impressive

Well, Matt Luke is an OL guy and the system they are running is going to hide their Ol weaknesses a little bit with all of the options. I am also just trying not to be a complete homer and call all of their position groups trash although outside on just a couple a strong case can be made that that is in fact the case.

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page