Why aren't we going to win 8 games again next year?

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Why wasn't he replaced this year then?

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I think it was because he was the best RB we had - which is born out by the fact that he is #2 in our all-time career rushing yards. It's where I disagree with a lot of people who say "Joe should have changed his offense to take advantage of our strength in the running game." He did change his offense. Drastically. We looked nothing like PSU the past 2 years. It was a bastardized hybrid of his offense to focus getting the ball in the hands of his best runner - Fitz. Why? Joe told us from the beginning - he wants the ball in the hands of his best playmaker as much as possible. Fitz had proven over the past 2 years to be the best chance at winning with the personnel we had on offense. We were 17-4 when Fitz broke 100 yards. So Joe had a choice - ditch his best RB for more production in the passing game (with no guarantee that he could replace the overall production) or basically do what we had done the past 2 years - focus on Fitz running the ball.

I'm sure people will argue against my opinion on all of this. But, a tweet from Kylin I saw yesterday made me think. Kylin said "It's my time now. No more role playing." What roll was he playing? He was the starter all year - but he wasn't the focus of the running game. Fitz was. His roll was to compliment that. I think we see a big change in that next year. Key (or Mayden/Fields/whoever) will be a QB first and a compliment to Kylin and Nick Gibson instead of the focus of the running offense, and we see more of what made Joe so smart at Penn State.

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Originally Posted by confucius say

Ive already offered you (or whomever accepts first) a $100 bet with terms of us winning 8 by end of day 1-2-20 absent starting qb injury. You must want 8 regular season only?

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He said 8 as in regular season. You have the bowl added with an out. I don't think we win 8 either way but i'll take his before i take yours.

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Originally Posted by Homedawg

He said 8 as in regular season. You have the bowl added with an out. I don't think we win 8 either way but i'll take his before i take yours.

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Got ya. Just let me know if you want mine.

I'm confident enough to make the bet that we win our 4 out of conference, om and Ky at home, ark on the road, and 1 out of @TN, LSU at home, or bowl game.

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Originally Posted by Scared_Hitless

So DT wise is it going to be up to Fabian and Autry? I assumed Kobe was running at DT but appears he is listed at DE. Little more concerned, but they have to have a plan since they havent offered any Juco stopgap players.

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A lot expect Spencer to slide down to DT. He was already over 280 pounds in August. Would also expect to see Rivers play DT some.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

I think it was because he was the best RB we had - which is born out by the fact that he is #2 in our all-time career rushing yards. It's where I disagree with a lot of people who say "Joe should have changed his offense to take advantage of our strength in the running game." He did change his offense. Drastically. We looked nothing like PSU the past 2 years. It was a bastardized hybrid of his offense to focus getting the ball in the hands of his best runner - Fitz. Why? Joe told us from the beginning - he wants the ball in the hands of his best playmaker as much as possible. Fitz had proven over the past 2 years to be the best chance at winning with the personnel we had on offense. We were 17-4 when Fitz broke 100 yards. So Joe had a choice - ditch his best RB for more production in the passing game (with no guarantee that he could replace the overall production) or basically do what we had done the past 2 years - focus on Fitz running the ball.

I'm sure people will argue against my opinion on all of this. But, a tweet from Kylin I saw yesterday made me think. Kylin said "It's my time now. No more role playing." What roll was he playing? He was the starter all year - but he wasn't the focus of the running game. Fitz was. His roll was to compliment that. I think we see a big change in that next year. Key (or Mayden/Fields/whoever) will be a QB first and a compliment to Kylin and Nick Gibson instead of the focus of the running offense, and we see more of what made Joe so smart at Penn State.

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Agreed. I think Moorhead’s offense next year will be very good. I’d have a true QB battle this spring and open it up to the best man winning. This will give us true competition and might be what would be best for everyone. KT never had a shot. It was always Fitz job. The one positive though with all these low predictions is when Moorhead wins 8 games next year not a single one of you should bitch.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

I think it was because he was the best RB we had - which is born out by the fact that he is #2 in our all-time career rushing yards. It's where I disagree with a lot of people who say "Joe should have changed his offense to take advantage of our strength in the running game." He did change his offense. Drastically. We looked nothing like PSU the past 2 years. It was a bastardized hybrid of his offense to focus getting the ball in the hands of his best runner - Fitz. Why? Joe told us from the beginning - he wants the ball in the hands of his best playmaker as much as possible. Fitz had proven over the past 2 years to be the best chance at winning with the personnel we had on offense. We were 17-4 when Fitz broke 100 yards. So Joe had a choice - ditch his best RB for more production in the passing game (with no guarantee that he could replace the overall production) or basically do what we had done the past 2 years - focus on Fitz running the ball.

I'm sure people will argue against my opinion on all of this. But, a tweet from Kylin I saw yesterday made me think. Kylin said "It's my time now. No more role playing." What roll was he playing? He was the starter all year - but he wasn't the focus of the running game. Fitz was. His roll was to compliment that. I think we see a big change in that next year. Key (or Mayden/Fields/whoever) will be a QB first and a compliment to Kylin and Nick Gibson instead of the focus of the running offense, and we see more of what made Joe so smart at Penn State.

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The tweet by Kylin should open a lot of eyes on here. And your comment about the Moorhead offense is 100% spot on. Our offense looked nothing like Penn State's offense. Welcome to why it didn't work people. Joe had to change it so much that it became entirely ineffective.

So for those saying just call a damn RB run ok fine. But what about the other 50 plays where we actually have to go with the style of offense Moorhead brought that he had to change completely because of our QB?

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Why wasn't he replaced this year then?

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I am hopeful that Moorhead just felt like he couldn't bench Fitz. Let's be honest, Moorhead would have had to win 10+ games if he benched Fitz because so many people like him. Even after the LSU debacle, there were plenty who still didn't want to bench Fitz.

And to be fair to Fitz, every now and then you could see flashes of what Joe was looking for. A lot of people have married potential.

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

The tweet by Kylin should open a lot of eyes on here. And your comment about the Moorhead offense is 100% spot on. Our offense looked nothing like Penn State's offense. Welcome to why it didn't work people. Joe had to change it so much that it became entirely ineffective.

So for those saying just call a damn RB run ok fine. But what about the other 50 plays where we actually have to go with the style of offense Moorhead brought that he had to change completely because of our QB?

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Fitz was the worst type of QB to run that system. Run first, inaccurate, and can’t throw the long ball consistently.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Why wasn't he replaced this year then?

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Because he was a 3 year starter & the best QB for this team. That doesn't mean that a QB in the 2nd year of this scheme, better WR play, & similar running ability can't be better

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

The tweet by Kylin should open a lot of eyes on here. And your comment about the Moorhead offense is 100% spot on. Our offense looked nothing like Penn State's offense. Welcome to why it didn't work people. Joe had to change it so much that it became entirely ineffective.

So for those saying just call a damn RB run ok fine. But what about the other 50 plays where we actually have to go with the style of offense Moorhead brought that he had to change completely because of our QB?

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Something isn't quite right on O side of ball. It's a combination of things. The D was a pretty selfless bunch IMO, which is what made them so good. On the O side, something just isn't quite right and I'm not sure it's entirely X's & O's.

While I believe Fitz was selfish or misreading or whatever at times, Kylin needs to STFU and learn to keep a LB off the QB. RB isn't all about running for 200 yds against KSU. It's also about keeping a Bama or LSU backer off your QB. If you're gonna let the LB kill your QB then the QB may be reluctant to give you the ball as much as you want him to, especially if the only times you're gonna put out maximum effort is when the ball is coming your way.

Along with a better passer, I also think the offense could be better with a little less accomplished runner at QB, if that meant the QB was going to hand it to the RBs more.

I am pretty confident in 7-5 just because I dont think whoever wins the job is worse than Fitz was at times. Win the 4 OOC and ARK and OM feel like wins. Then gotta hit on 1 toss up of KY and TN. Very possible.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

So the guy has an opinion about next year, which every single one of these posts are, and he has to back it up with facts?

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I mean, it would be preferable, yes. He did state it pretty definitively and then didn't back it up.

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Originally Posted by dawgday166

What facts are you or anyone else gonna provide to show we'll win 8?

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This doesn't prove we'll win 8, but we get to play the 3 clear worst teams from 2018 (Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Tennessee) next year, and none appears likely to improve much if at all.

Kentucky is likely to take a big step back after losing Snell, Allen, and their QB, and they were likely overachieving (unlike us) this season anyway.

Auburn and Texas A&M will be tough on the road, but we did beat them this year deservedly and non-flukily, so I'm not counting us out.

Like I said, we may or may not win 8, but the above facts suggest that the naysayers are probably underrating our chances.

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

The tweet by Kylin should open a lot of eyes on here. And your comment about the Moorhead offense is 100% spot on. Our offense looked nothing like Penn State's offense. Welcome to why it didn't work people. Joe had to change it so much that it became entirely ineffective.

So for those saying just call a damn RB run ok fine. But what about the other 50 plays where we actually have to go with the style of offense Moorhead brought that he had to change completely because of our QB?

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Yep. And folks are forgetting this offense didn't just work at psu. Joe was successful running this at Georgetown, Fordham, Akron, UConn everywhere he's been. And the offense we ran this year didn't look much at all like the offense he ran at all those places. Joe tried making adjustments all year. This offense can be highly successful when run with the right qb because it puts so much pressure on the defense. Now it's up to joe to find that qb.

Joe Moorhead

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

I mean, it would be preferable, yes. He did state it pretty definitively and then didn't back it up.



This doesn't prove we'll win 8, but we get to play the 3 clear worst teams from 2018 (Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Tennessee) next year, and none appears likely to improve much if at all.

Kentucky is likely to take a big step back after losing Snell, Allen, and their QB, and they were likely overachieving (unlike us) this season anyway.

Auburn and Texas A&M will be tough on the road, but we did beat them this year deservedly and non-flukily, so I'm not counting us out.

Like I said, we may or may not win 8, but the above facts suggest that the naysayers are probably underrating our chances.

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I can take the flip side of your comments about ARk, ole miss, and ut, and well UK for that matter- we are losing 3 top 2 rounders, additionally, 5 of our top DT's. Our other starting DE, our other starting safety, 2 other db's (one of which will get a shot at the nfl.) Offensively, 2 starting lineman, both of which will get drafted, our starting TE, and the guy who was our QB for 3 years, one of which he led the league in total offense. See how that works, look at starters returning and nobody in their right mind outside people here would possibly think we could be anywhere close to as good. And I agree with them.

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Originally Posted by Homedawg

I can take the flip side of your comments about ARk, ole miss, and ut, and well UK for that matter- we are losing 3 top 2 rounders, additionally, 5 of our top DT's. Our other starting DE, our other starting safety, 2 other db's (one of which will get a shot at the nfl.) Offensively, 2 starting lineman, both of which will get drafted, our starting TE, and the guy who was our QB for 3 years, one of which he led the league in total offense. See how that works, look at starters returning and nobody in their right mind outside people here would possibly think we could be anywhere close to as good. And I agree with them.

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And we still will have more talent on our team then the 4 OOC teams plus Ark, OM, and UK. This team will be 8-4 next year because our feature back will be Hill and not Fitzgerald. It will be addition by subtraction and the offense next year will resemble more of what Moorhead did at Penn State rather then this year where he had no idea how best to utilize Fitz. The defense won’t be elite but it still will be top half SEC and with the improvement from the offense we won’t need elite from the defense next year.

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Originally Posted by Homedawg

I can take the flip side of your comments about ARk, ole miss, and ut, and well UK for that matter- we are losing 3 top 2 rounders, additionally, 5 of our top DT's. Our other starting DE, our other starting safety, 2 other db's (one of which will get a shot at the nfl.) Offensively, 2 starting lineman, both of which will get drafted, our starting TE, and the guy who was our QB for 3 years, one of which he led the league in total offense. See how that works, look at starters returning and nobody in their right mind outside people here would possibly think we could be anywhere close to as good. And I agree with them.

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Honestly the DT is what scares me the most. I think Rivers will fill the void left by Sweat. Safety might take a step back but I think we have a good bit of talent there along with all our LBs coming back. Baker and Shoop are definitely going to earn their paycheck next year.

Spencer was explosive as a freshman and I think Lovett will be the next great DT in his 2nd year. Sophomore year is usually when you see the biggest improvement from those guys.

On Oline, we will miss Jenkins but we actually have a lot of talent returning and I could see Cross getting a shot in the rotation at Tackle. He is currently the highest rated recruit rated on 247 in MSU history. A lot of great OT play as freshmen.

TE - didn't realize we had one. Dontae Jones is a beast though.

QB - I don't think we will actually miss Fitz. He played like crap against the good to great teams other than A&M. Against AU, we just ran it anyway which Key is very good at also. Key seems to throw a "more catchable" pass so at a minimum this might end up being a positive.

All in all, I think the defense takes a step back but the offense improves. I say 7-5 with a chance at 8-4 if everything goes our way.

Bottom line, the offense has to improve or Moorhead's seat is getting very toasty even if we win 6-7 with a good defense and bad Offense.

Y'all will get a laugh from this but SDS predicts we go 9-3 or 10-2 next year.

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Originally Posted by MarketingBully

And we still will have more talent on our team then the 4 OOC teams plus Ark, OM, and UK. This team will be 8-4 next year because our feature back will be Hill and not Fitzgerald. It will be addition by subtraction and the offense next year will resemble more of what Moorhead did at Penn State rather then this year where he had no idea how best to utilize Fitz. The defense won’t be elite but it still will be top half SEC and with the improvement from the offense we won’t need elite from the defense next year.

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So it's going to look more like psu because Fitz is gone, yet we didn't replace him this year with the guy who will be the qb next year? . So it will have to be better? Gotcha.......................