44/99 for 371yd, 0 TDs, 6 INTs

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10-23-2018, 10:49 AM
Dawg61

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluelightstar

In fairness to Moorhead, even if were Key were better in practice, Fitz had to lose the job. I don't think it would have sat well with the fans otherwise.

For sure Fitz had to lose the job and he's done that and more. We shoulda benched him earlier but he deserved to get the rushing record. Now it just appears he wants to pad his stats on that while he still can before he gets yanked. Him rushing up the middle 22 times while our RBs get a combined 14 carries appears as evidence to this.
10-23-2018, 11:14 AM
Really Clark?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg61

For sure Fitz had to lose the job and he's done that and more. We shoulda benched him earlier but he deserved to get the rushing record. Now it just appears he wants to pad his stats on that while he still can before he gets yanked. Him rushing up the middle 22 times while our RBs get a combined 14 carries appears as evidence to this.

Might want to count the number of designed QB runs before casting all of that on the QB. A QB who had no problem giving the ball 80 more times to Aeris last year. And for arguments sake if your theory is true then the HC is responsible for getting that straightened and would of only taken 2 seconds for me to cut that out.
10-23-2018, 11:31 AM
Prediction? Pain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SailingDawg

What were Fitz's passing stats the last two years? They weren't bad at all.

What's different this year that makes him so ineffective?

Better, but not great.

In an SPS thread yesterday, MsState7 posted Fitz' QBR ranks -- ESPN's advanced QB stat that takes running numbers into account along with passing -- among SEC QBs the last three years. He was top 5 in 2016 and 2017, but at or near the bottom of the conference now. 7 made a good point about how Fitz' running ability likely propped up his numbers, so I looked it up to learn more. Here's what I found, which I posted on the SPS thread yesterday:

I'm not all that familiar with the ins and outs of the QBR "points added" system, but I think you're right to point out how Fitz' exceptional running game boosts his numbers.

If you break his QBR down into passing and rushing, the stats for each of his years here tell the same story:

National/SEC rank in Rushing EPA

2016 - No. 2 / No. 1
2017 - No. 5 / No. 1
2018 - No. 11 / No. 1

National / SEC rank in Passing EPA

2016 - No. 100 / No. 12
2017 - No. 100 / No. 10
2018 - No. 131 / No. 14

And if you go back and look at his passing "points added" stats for individual games, you'll see that his numbers are propped up some by games against non-conference cupcakes and bad SEC defenses. That was especially true vs. UMass and Samford in 2016, where his Passing EPA numbers were more than twice as good as his next-best SEC games (vs. Arkansas and in the Egg Bowl). (Though oddly enough, in 2017, he had negative Passing EPA numbers against UMass.)

So even when the offense flourished, he was one of the worst passing QBs in the SEC while also being the best rushing QB in the league. The bummer this year is that for whatever reason -- first year in an all-new system, new starting receivers also learning a new system, passing offense being poorly tailored to fit his/our receivers' capabilities, etc. -- his passing game is even worse than it already was.

The thing is, though, there's still time for Fitz to revert to his norm against lesser defenses in the homestretch. Our SEC games so far have been against defenses ranked 3rd, 4th, 10th, ad 19th nationally in S&P+ rankings. Our remaining conference games are against defenses ranked 20th (Bama), 25th (Texas A&M), 57th (Ark.), and 110th (U. Miss.). And then we'll also have La Tech's 78th ranked D sandwiched in there. Throwing out the Bama game from those last five, if Moorhead can get Fitz to improve slightly to where he was in 2016 and 2017 -- which may be difficult at this point in the season and given that Fitz was putting up the numbers he was after having 2 or 3 years in Mullen's system -- the offense as a whole should improve quite a bit.
10-23-2018, 11:39 AM
Dawg61

Quote:

Originally Posted by Really Clark?

Might want to count the number of designed QB runs before casting all of that on the QB. A QB who had no problem giving the ball 80 more times to Aeris last year. And for arguments sake if your theory is true then the HC is responsible for getting that straightened and would of only taken 2 seconds for me to cut that out.

I never claimed Moorhead wasn't afraid of confrontation.
10-23-2018, 11:40 AM
tcdog70

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgday166

I won't melt. I'll be glad we scored some damn points.

I'm just saying everyone wants to blame Fitz ... he handles the ball each snap.

But on so many plays an Olineman just totally screws up an assignment, a RB doesn't pick up a blitz, 2 WRs run routes ending up about 5 yds apart, etc. There is so much confusion on possible passing plays, whether RPO or designed, it is unreal.

And all y'all wanna blame it JUST on Fitz, not the head man in charge of this crapfest.

This is what Wyatt explained today on Bo Bounds, and it's what I've seen in the 2 games (FL & LSU) that I rewatched (3 and 2 times respectively) while rewinding repeatedly to make sure what was happening on each play.

If all of that happens when Key is in there ... you'll get the same results.

right you are. Fitz was the total offense leader in the SEC as a Soph. So he has just forgot how to play? JOE has him playing to His weakness instead of his strength.

I think if we walk up to line and snap the ball, instead of sitting in our stance for 25 seconds our OL will play better. Put Hill in slot and A-train as a Running Back with Fitz--then we have our 3 best playmakers in the game. Let Hill play jameon Lewis role. Run some play action passes to RBs and TEs.
it ain't ROCKET SURGERY>
10-23-2018, 11:46 AM
tcdog70

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.

Better, but not great.

In an SPS thread yesterday, MsState7 posted Fitz' QBR ranks -- ESPN's advanced QB stat that takes running numbers into account along with passing -- among SEC QBs the last three years. He was top 5 in 2016 and 2017, but at or near the bottom of the conference now. 7 made a good point about how Fitz' running ability likely propped up his numbers, so I looked it up to learn more. Here's what I found, which I posted on the SPS thread yesterday:

I'm not all that familiar with the ins and outs of the QBR "points added" system, but I think you're right to point out how Fitz' exceptional running game boosts his numbers.

If you break his QBR down into passing and rushing, the stats for each of his years here tell the same story:

National/SEC rank in Rushing EPA

2016 - No. 2 / No. 1
2017 - No. 5 / No. 1
2018 - No. 11 / No. 1

National / SEC rank in Passing EPA

2016 - No. 100 / No. 12
2017 - No. 100 / No. 10
2018 - No. 131 / No. 14

And if you go back and look at his passing "points added" stats for individual games, you'll see that his numbers are propped up some by games against non-conference cupcakes and bad SEC defenses. That was especially true vs. UMass and Samford in 2016, where his Passing EPA numbers were more than twice as good as his next-best SEC games (vs. Arkansas and in the Egg Bowl). (Though oddly enough, in 2017, he had negative Passing EPA numbers against UMass.)

So even when the offense flourished, he was one of the worst passing QBs in the SEC while also being the best rushing QB in the league. The bummer this year is that for whatever reason -- first year in an all-new system, new starting receivers also learning a new system, passing offense being poorly tailored to fit his/our receivers' capabilities, etc. -- his passing game is even worse than it already was.

The thing is, though, there's still time for Fitz to revert to his norm against lesser defenses in the homestretch. Our SEC games so far have been against defenses ranked 3rd, 4th, 10th, ad 19th nationally in S&P+ rankings. Our remaining conference games are against defenses ranked 20th (Bama), 25th (Texas A&M), 57th (Ark.), and 110th (U. Miss.). And then we'll also have La Tech's 78th ranked D sandwiched in there. Throwing out the Bama game from those last five, if Moorhead can get Fitz to improve slightly to where he was in 2016 and 2017 -- which may be difficult at this point in the season and given that Fitz was putting up the numbers he was after having 2 or 3 years in Mullen's system -- the offense as a whole should improve quite a bit.

good facts--what about our WRs ranking during the same time. How many drops per chance--, Remember It takes 2 to complete a pass.
10-23-2018, 12:11 PM
Really Clark?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg61

I never claimed Moorhead wasn't afraid of confrontation.

True and that may be an issue as well. He could have it done through an assistant. Or just bench him for 2 series to get his attention.

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