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11-21-2025, 11:36 PM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

It's built to win 3.5 according to the experts.

But if the "experts" had known that Arkansas and Florida would be terrible and that Tennessee, Texas, Arizona State, and Missouri were all worse than expected, our projected win count would have been a good bit higher than 3.5.

Also, the oddsmakers take coaching into account for every team's total, not just players, and that probably didn't do us any favors.
11-21-2025, 11:50 PM
Cowbeller

I dont get the JoMo and Lebby comparisons. Night and day difference, feel like we have had chances to win this year but with JoMoron I wondered how wed screw up with our talent.

Also Lebby has never rubbed me wrong in a presser but I couldnt listen to anything JoMo said.
11-22-2025, 12:16 AM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cowbeller

I dont get the JoMo and Lebby comparisons. Night and day difference, feel like we have had chances to win this year but with JoMoron I wondered how wed screw up with our talent.

Also Lebby has never rubbed me wrong in a presser but I couldnt listen to anything JoMo said.

I agree
11-22-2025, 12:34 AM
Coach34

Lebby is running one of the best offenses in school history. Enough said- especially in a rebuild
11-22-2025, 12:42 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

But if the "experts" had known that Arkansas and Florida would be terrible and that Tennessee, Texas, Arizona State, and Missouri were all worse than expected, our projected win count would have been a good bit higher than 3.5.

Also, the oddsmakers take coaching into account for every team's total, not just players, and that probably didn't do us any favors.

"Worse than expected"- and yet, Arizona State is a likely 8 win and very possibly 9 win team if they win their rivalry game which is probably a toss up-on the outside of the top 25 barely and has SEC schools interested in interviewing their head coach for openings.

The others are top 25 teams including Texas who also lost in Gainesville to that "terrible" Florida team. Texas also has losses to Ohio State and Georgia. Tennessee has losses to Georgia (common theme for everyone here), Alabama on the road, and Oklahoma. Mizzou is down to their third QB but they are a very good team who has losses to Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M- two of those losses by one score.

So, basically you are bitching because we couldn't beat Florida on the road and couldn't pull off a bunch of upsets when we were playing way above our talent level.

So yeah. "Fahr Lebby and get someone who will play a mobile QB."***********************
11-22-2025, 12:44 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

Lebby is running one of the best offenses in school history. Enough said- especially in a rebuild

Yeah! And in fact it's basically as good as Alabama's statistically. But there are people out there that think that there is a chance we get shut out in the Egg Bowl like 2008. And let's be honest, us getting shut out in 2008 in the Egg Bowl wasn't THAT shocking. But the offenses are completely different animals. Lebby's offense right now is comparable to Dan's offense in 2017 statistically.
11-22-2025, 01:12 AM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

"Worse than expected"- and yet, Arizona State is a likely 8 win and very possibly 9 win team if they win their rivalry game which is probably a toss up-on the outside of the top 25 barely and has SEC schools interested in interviewing their head coach for openings.

OK, but they were ranked #12 at the time and widely expected to be a playoff contender, so yes, worse than expected.

I'm thrilled he won that game, but come on, winning a home game over a team that doesn't finished ranked is a basic, baseline expectation for any coach. Mullen and Leach generally did that here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

The others are top 25 teams including Texas who also lost in Gainesville to that "terrible" Florida team. Texas also has losses to Ohio State and Georgia. Tennessee has losses to Georgia (common theme for everyone here), Alabama on the road, and Oklahoma. Mizzou is down to their third QB but they are a very good team who has losses to Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M- two of those losses by one score.

And again, my point wasn't that those teams aren't good, it's that everyone's preseason expectations were made under the impression that those teams were a lot better than they actually turned out to be. Everyone would have predicted more wins for this year's team if they'd known that 6 of our 9 P4 opponents were clearly worse than we were all thinking. We kinda got lucky with the schedule this year and didn't take advantage of it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

So, basically you are bitching because we couldn't beat Florida on the road and couldn't pull off a bunch of upsets when we were playing way above our talent level.

We should have beaten a 3-9 team that was known to be firing his coach. Period. 100%. Any loss in that situation was unacceptable, but the fact that it's largely because Lebby made very rudimentary coaching errors is even worse on him.

We also should have beaten Texas (a team that's one of Florida's 3 wins and has been mediocre for most of the season, despite the record) once we got up by 17 with 10 minutes to go. If we'd only lost because we got out-talented, I could live with it (like I like with the A&M and Georgia losses, despite Lebby having some questionable decisions in both of those) but when we were snapping the ball many times with 20 seconds on the play clock after that, then no, that's unacceptable.

I know we're "poor ol' Mississippi State" and can't expect to beat programs like Florida even when they suck or Texas even when they are a shadow of their former selves and we have a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter, but I hold us to a higher standard. If Mullen or Leach or Moorhead or whoever had blown either of those games, they would rightfully have gotten just as much blowback from the fanbase.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

"Fahr Lebby and get someone who will play a mobile QB."***********************

I don't know why you keep making this point at me when I have never said that Lebby has to play Taylor or any particular QB. I've always said personnel decisions are solely the call of the head coach, but he will have to live with the consequences of how his preferred players/coaches perform.
11-22-2025, 01:28 AM
Quaoarsking
Note: I went through our schedules and looked at records in home games against Power Five/Four teams who did not finish ranked:
- Mullen: 16-2, with losses to 2016 Arkansas and 2017 Ole Miss
- Moorhead: 4-1, loss to 2019 Kansas State
- Leach: 5-3, losses to 2020 Arkansas, 2020 Auburn, and 2021 LSU
- Arnett: 0-1, lost to 2023 Kentucky
- Lebby: In 2024 he was 0-3, losing to Florida, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. We'll see about this year, but probably 1-0 if Arizona State finishes unranked and Texas finishes ranked, but neither of those is certain.
This reminds me of the earlier question of whether Mullen or Leach generally won games similar to the Arizona State and Texas games, and I think the answer is that they probably would have.
11-22-2025, 01:53 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

OK, but they were ranked #12 at the time and widely expected to be a playoff contender, so yes, worse than expected.

I'm thrilled he won that game, but come on, winning a home game over a team that doesn't finished ranked is a basic, baseline expectation for any coach. Mullen and Leach generally did that here.

And again, my point wasn't that those teams aren't good, it's that everyone's preseason expectations were made under the impression that those teams were a lot better than they actually turned out to be. Everyone would have predicted more wins for this year's team if they'd known that 6 of our 9 P4 opponents were clearly worse than we were all thinking. We kinda got lucky with the schedule this year and didn't take advantage of it.

We should have beaten a 3-9 team that was known to be firing his coach. Period. 100%. Any loss in that situation was unacceptable, but the fact that it's largely because Lebby made very rudimentary coaching errors is even worse on him.

We also should have beaten Texas (a team that's one of Florida's 3 wins and has been mediocre for most of the season, despite the record) once we got up by 17 with 10 minutes to go. If we'd only lost because we got out-talented, I could live with it (like I like with the A&M and Georgia losses, despite Lebby having some questionable decisions in both of those) but when we were snapping the ball many times with 20 seconds on the play clock after that, then no, that's unacceptable.

I know we're "poor ol' Mississippi State" and can't expect to beat programs like Florida even when they suck or Texas even when they are a shadow of their former selves and we have a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter, but I hold us to a higher standard. If Mullen or Leach or Moorhead or whoever had blown either of those games, they would rightfully have gotten just as much blowback from the fanbase.

I don't know why you keep making this point at me when I have never said that Lebby has to play Taylor or any particular QB. I've always said personnel decisions are solely the call of the head coach, but he will have to live with the consequences of how his preferred players/coaches perform.

That's all a bunch of bullshit because the reality is even if those teams were "worse" than projected they're still all a lot better than what WE were projected. There's still a talent gap there. Saying that our win over Arizona State is overrated because they won't win their conference while winning 8-9 games is the Mississippi State thing ever.

And to say that our schedule was "lucky" is laughable at best. Ask Ole Miss if they would trade schedules with us.

We did lose to Texas because we got out talented. We tried to run the ball and the clock in the fourth quarter. We couldn't do it. Why? Because our offensive line was gassed. That's a talent and depth issue. That's an example of our fans being football ignorant. "Damn Lebby. That didn't work. Fire him!" Yes, we shouldn't have punted to their guy. We still should have gotten him down regardless. We didn't. Why? Because our players aren't as good as him. And this is a HUNH offense basically. When you ask them to slow down it knocks them out of rhythm sometimes. Partially what happened against Texas. So what do you do? Do keep trying to stay in rhythm which has worked the whole game or do you run clock with a less than talented offensive line that is gassed? The answer is to improve your offensive line.
11-22-2025, 01:55 AM
Todd4State
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Note: I went through our schedules and looked at records in home games against Power Five/Four teams who did not finish ranked:

Mullen: 16-2, with losses to 2016 Arkansas and 2017 Ole Miss
Moorhead: 4-1, loss to 2019 Kansas State
Leach: 5-3, losses to 2020 Arkansas, 2020 Auburn, and 2021 LSU
Arnett: 0-1, lost to 2023 Kentucky
Lebby: In 2024 he was 0-3, losing to Florida, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. We'll see about this year, but probably 1-0 if Arizona State finishes unranked and Texas finishes ranked, but neither of those is certain.

This reminds me of the earlier question of whether Mullen or Leach generally won games similar to the Arizona State and Texas games, and I think the answer is that they probably would have.
Mullen lost to Oklahoma State and BYU when the P5 mandate started. Leach won all of his P5 mandate games. Texas is still ranked and I wouldn't say it's impossible that Arizona State ends up ranked at the end of the year too especially if they win their last two.
11-22-2025, 05:32 AM
Maroonthirteen

Anyways......since Lane to LSU.....Loafers better land Drink at UF...

who takes the OM Job? I guess the next HC battle is OM v Auburn for Sumrall?

Will Florida State come open? They may finish with a losing season.

Will Texas be open.....Sark to NFL?

Will Lebby become a candidate when the dominoes start falling?

The coaching carousel is about to start spinning like a top.
11-22-2025, 06:58 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Mullen lost to Oklahoma State and BYU when the P5 mandate started. Leach won all of his P5 mandate games. Texas is still ranked and I wouldn't say it's impossible that Arizona State ends up ranked at the end of the year too especially if they win their last two.

Neither of those were home games
11-22-2025, 10:01 AM
DEDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Napier in Y1= 3 sec wins. Napier in Y2 = 3 sec wins
Lebby in Y1 = 0 sec wins. Lebby in Y2 = 1 sec win

Lebby is an ace. Napier sucks

I can make any argument too with zero context.
11-22-2025, 10:09 AM
DEDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

But if the "experts" had known that Arkansas and Florida would be terrible and that Tennessee, Texas, Arizona State, and Missouri were all worse than expected, our projected win count would have been a good bit higher than 3.5.

Also, the oddsmakers take coaching into account for every team's total, not just players, and that probably didn't do us any favors.

What's your point? It was 3.5 which was exactly right for us but if we play your game and say it should be "way higher" that probably is 2 games to 5.5 which is exactly where we are.

Regardless it's a non sensical argument those teams you listed are all about where people expected them to be except for Texas which is still a top 15 team.
11-22-2025, 10:17 AM
Quaoarsking

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEDawg

What's your point? It was 3.5 which was exactly right for us but if we play your game and say it should be "way higher" that probably is 2 games to 5.5 which is exactly where we are.

Regardless it's a non sensical argument those teams you listed are all about where people expected them to be except for Texas which is still a top 15 team.

People expected preseason #15 Florida to finish 3-9?
11-22-2025, 10:21 AM
Goldendawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

That's all a bunch of bullshit because the reality is even if those teams were "worse" than projected they're still all a lot better than what WE were projected. There's still a talent gap there. Saying that our win over Arizona State is overrated because they won't win their conference while winning 8-9 games is the Mississippi State thing ever.

And to say that our schedule was "lucky" is laughable at best. Ask Ole Miss if they would trade schedules with us.

We did lose to Texas because we got out talented. We tried to run the ball and the clock in the fourth quarter. We couldn't do it. Why? Because our offensive line was gassed. That's a talent and depth issue. That's an example of our fans being football ignorant. "Damn Lebby. That didn't work. Fire him!" Yes, we shouldn't have punted to their guy. We still should have gotten him down regardless. We didn't. Why? Because our players aren't as good as him. And this is a HUNH offense basically. When you ask them to slow down it knocks them out of rhythm sometimes. Partially what happened against Texas. So what do you do? Do keep trying to stay in rhythm which has worked the whole game or do you run clock with a less than talented offensive line that is gassed? The answer is to improve your offensive line.

Once again our fans are not "football ignorant". Give that a rest. We all want MSU to win , even though we have different opinions on how to get it done and are tired of close losses when very questionable in game decisions were made by our HC. I know no one who is calling him to be fired, just win asap! Year three is his to get over this hump. Hail State!
11-22-2025, 10:28 AM
DEDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

People expected preseason #15 Florida to finish 3-9?

6.5 was their pre season win/loss so they did under achieve
11-22-2025, 10:48 AM
Brobi-wan

Lebby won’t be fired, so who cares? It’s fine if y’all don’t like him. Start a thread for it. This conversation is in every thread atm
11-22-2025, 10:55 AM
Coursesuper

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brobi-wan

Lebby won’t be fired, so who cares? It’s fine if y’all don’t like him. Start a thread for it. This conversation is in every thread atm

Exactly
11-22-2025, 11:00 AM
Tater

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

But if the "experts" had known that Arkansas and Florida would be terrible and that Tennessee, Texas, Arizona State, and Missouri were all worse than expected, our projected win count would have been a good bit higher than 3.5.

Also, the oddsmakers take coaching into account for every team's total, not just players, and that probably didn't do us any favors.

I definitely remember crowing before the season about how our schedule wasn't all it was caked up to be. That we had real shots.

We blew em for sure. But I think I was saying 10-11 winnable games. I was wrong on Aggy and that's about it. OM getting Simmons hurt really ****ed it up - Chambliss is the best QB in their history.

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