not meaning to attack you....just frustrated at this shitty situation. I need to retire and move back to Wyoming/Montana.
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I highly recommend everyone read this report. Directly from the CDC and doesn’t take into account May/June stats:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
Interesting best guess for Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate.
Overall has a best guess of .4%. For
under 49, it's .05%
50-64 its .2%
65+ it's 1.3%.
With their best guess of 35% of cases being asymptomatic (and assuming they are evenly spaced out, which is probably a bad assumption), that would be
Overall - .26%
under 49 - .0325%
50-64 - .13%
65+ - .845%
Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0612172208.htm
As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.
Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).
The mortality rate dropping is huge! That fact can't be stated enough.
A virus is only effective as its transmittal rate. Contrary to what I've read, I still think that it's either mutated or warmer temps have made it less lethal. What are your thoughts for the fall/winter months with this still in circulation? Do you think we see what we're seeing now or does it regain its punch that we saw in NYC?
Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate? That's certainly important, but it's not the whole story. There's also the people that spend four weeks in the hospital, and someone has to pay for that. There's the people that have lingering serious side effects that last for months, and in many cases still haven't gone away. There's the hospitals that are getting overloaded and the mental toll that takes on the healthcare workers. Unfortunately there's no data that I'm aware of that indicates how widespread these factors are, but it's clear they're happening. Please don't fall into a false sense of security just because fewer people are dying.
[QUOTE=Joebob;1258570]Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate?
Because that is the most important thing.
I do understand your point hospitals about though.
I don't know where these numbers on Arizona are coming from its fake news. The gov't is full of Shit this crap is exploding in Phoenix and Houston. i have been transferred to Phoenix and i can tell you its getting serious here OASIS Hospital is overloaded.
This! The studies I mentioned a
couple of months ago being done by Stanford, UPMC, Wake Baptist, UAB,etc, showing infection rate, asymptomatic rate, mortality rate, etc.,were showing this would be the trend that we would see, and now the cdc is confirming their numbers.
I understand at ground zero it can be overwhelming but understand you are talking about one hospital in a country of 350 million people. If they are transferring all covid deaths to Oasis then you will see an influx from the spike they had a few days ago. Arizona has only reported 4 covid deaths over the past two days though. I’m sure those totals lag behind. Just realize that you are there because it’s a national hot spot so you are right now seeing the worst outbreak in the US currently. That doesn’t mean the entire US looks like that. Same reason they send the NG down after hurricanes. Doesn’t mean all of the US is flooding just the area you are going to.
Keep it squared away and come home safely and well.
It’ll come back stronger in the cooler less humid months just like the flu does. I don’t think the mortality rate will ever be as high as it first was but that goes back to what I posted before about the initial spike. About 100,000 people die from the flu or flu related illnesses each year in the US so I can see it being about like that each year especially after a seasonal vaccine is created. Those that are older or with compromised immune systems will always be at risk though even with a vaccine. Basically there will be a combo flu a, flu b, covid vaccine you will want to get each year to be safe.
Still waiting on you to provide the names of these health systems that you service who aren't concerned about the virus...
The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.
Thanks for answering my question though regarding the cooler months. I agree w/ regarding the annual vaccine, but I'm nervous that flu + COVID season will be rough.
Your absolutely right that the focus of all of the measures have been to flatten the curve. This was done to battle the spike that would result as a novel virus entered the population. That was accomplished. There will still be hotspots as the virus makes its way through densely populated urban areas throughout the US. I do not believe you will see a mortality rate again like you saw at the beginning of this though. This has been the case in literally every country the virus has spread through. With that said, the mortality rate has been a major and constant point throughout this entire process. Initially it was reported to have anywhere from a 5-10% mortality rate with some alarmist reporting up to 15%. This was an incomplete picture and, frankly, bad reporting.
The real story will be hospitalization and recovery rate. We won’t know the true extent of the Covid impact for another decade probably. It looks like about 1-3% of those that get the virus get it really bad and can cause sever symptoms that may have long lasting effects. The mechanisms behind this is unclear but I’m pretty sure it’s going to be genetic and related to Dysautonomia...another genetic disease that is not well treated.
Imagine getting people who don't get that wearing a mask only has two outcomes: you help prevent spread or you look like a good citizen concerned for his fellow man.... imagine getting them to care about long term health effects.
In the country that actively fights access to healthcare for all....
Imagine. I'm sorry Joebob but you might even be more naive than me in believing in the good of man and how in depth we as society can think. And I'm pretty damn naive for thinking what I think so it's no small feat to be more naive than me.
Every day I read this board I'm glad I took the risk to leave Mississippi. I miss the hospitality and especially the food, but damn if reading this board doesn't tell me that I only got that hospitality because I didn't question as openly things I disagreed with down there and had the right color skin tone.