Ok, there you go. A waiver for a bigger bowl, that makes sense. So we are 50/50. LolQuote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
No problem, sorry for the dipshit comment.
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Ok, there you go. A waiver for a bigger bowl, that makes sense. So we are 50/50. LolQuote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
No problem, sorry for the dipshit comment.
Brett McMurphy actually has Jax State projected to the Mobile Bowl. Now, I usually don't put stock in many of these moronic bowl projections. Me and you probably know the bowl tie ins and rules better, but McMurphy seems to know his stuff. I guess he thinks they get a waiver. He also has us in the Birmingham vs Northwestern and us favored by 3. That game would probably end up 2-0.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
He may be hearing something that the NCAA might if there are too many not eligible. It's the NCAA, who knows.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
That would be a craptastic bowl...I'd still go; but damn.
Covid year we went with two wins I think and in 2017 we went with five wins.
It was 2016 we went 5-7 and got the last bowl bid. Then in 2020 we went at 3-7, though that was with an SEC only schedule, so arguably less of a stretch than 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
When teams get bowls at 5-7, they just kinda get thrown in wherever, regardless of tie-ins. Back in 2016, we ended up in St. Petersburg to play a 6-6 MAC team despite the SEC not having that tie-in.
Maybe we could get ourselves into the Barstool bowl to extend our relationship as an athletic department.
Any update? I would actually like to play in a bowl still.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
Knox is undefeated! We are going to a bowl at 6-6!
There's a chance. We need some of the fringe teams at 5-5,4-6 to not get eligible. Teams to pull against or for:Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
ACC-Syracuse to win out against GT and Wake
BIG 10-Nebraska and Illinois to lose out
BIG XII-BYU to lose out, UCF to lose out
SEC-Florida to lose out, SC to not win out
PAC 12-Cal, Wazzu, or Colorado not to win out
AAC-Navy not to win out, USF lose out,
Sun Belt- one or two of USA, Marshall, or Arky State to lose out
MAC-EMU,CMU,WMU, NIU to not win out
MWC-Colorado St to not win out
Now, we don't need all of this to happen. If just a few happen we can get in. Mainly we need Nebraska, BYU, Florida and SC not get to 5 wins, and one or two of the MAC schools, and maybe Navy or USF not get bowl eligble.. That should get us in at 5-7.
I think it would be a positive for us to go to a bowl even at 5-7. We need something positive heading into signing period, and spring to attract and keep a few players. 14 straight bowls is something too even though a little smoke and mirrors, but we'll take it. In today's world, perception is everything just ask OM the king of perception.
So Nebraska, byu, Florida, and SC are ahead of us in APR? Is that why we don't need them to get to 5 wins? I think some are already at 5 wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
Fla is 5-5 with at Mizzu and hosting FSU. USCe is 4-6 with KY and Clemson at home. Nebraska is 5-5 with at Wisconsin and home with Iowa to finish. BYU is 5-5 hosting OU and finishing at OSU.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
I don't think Stoops would allow us to play in one at 5-7*****
Greg wants to be 2-0 in MSU bowl games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Saltydog
Aw hell, I'd go to Birmingham.
We are ahead of them in APR. We don't need them to get to 6 wins. I messed up my original posts by saying 5.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
If we have a coach in place by then, yep. If we don't, yep. Always take the bowl game.
The program will save money going to Birmingham. Have players parents drive them over and back on game day. Nice short trip for the fans too. Alumni party stone Sheraton next to the Stadium. Bulldog Club Event at Top Golf. Parade at 5 Points South. Perfect.
Cool. Got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
This is the path for a 5-7 bowl:
ACC -10 bowl teams but 9 would be nice. For 9 ACC bowl teams we need Syracuse to beat GT and Wake. GT and Wake will also most likely lose to UGA and Notre Dame which eliminates both of the Cuse beats both.
Big 10 -10 bowl teams or less. They could have as many as 11, but as few as 9. We need them at 10 or less. They have many teams at 5-5. WI, NW, and MN all have 5 wins and are better than us in APR. Therefore, we need Nebraska(at WI home to Iowa) and Illinois(at Iowa home to NW) to lose out and put them at 9.
Big XII-9 or less. BYU is 5-5. They have OU and at Okie St. They need to lose out. UCF and TT are both 5-5. They play at TT this week, so one is in. We need it to be TT, then we need Houston to lose to Okie St and win at UCF. That leaves 8. We can get by with 9 but no more.
PAC 12- They have 7 bowl teams. Colorado and Wazzu are 4-6 and play this week. One is out. The winner will have Washington or Utah. Winner most likely loses the next week. Cal is 4-6 and has at Stanford and at UCLA. Just lose one. We don't need one of these sneaking in.
SEC- 9 teams. Florida needs to lose at Mizzou and against FSU. SC needs to lose one of UK or Clemson at home.
Independents-1 team. ND is in. Army is 4-6 with Coastal Carolina and Navy left. Two of their wins are FCS teams, meaning the are really 4-6. Still need them to lose to CC just in case the NCAA granted them a waiver. I'll get to G5 in my next post.
Now, when looking at what we need on the G5 side of things, I'm counting JMU and Jax St as getting in because they are.
American- no more than 7. The AAC could have as many as 8(highly unlikely) and as few as four. The fringe teams are USF at 5-5 with at UTSA and home to Charlotte. Navy is 4-5. They have ECU, SMU, and Army. We need 1-2. Rice is 4-6, but has us in APR, so 5 for them beats us. They have at Charlotte and FAU at home. Let them win. FAU is hanging by a thread. They just need to lose to Tulane or Rice.
Sun Belt- 10 or less. They could have 11 or as few as 8. SAla and Marshall are 5-5 and play this week, so one is in. We need it to be SAl.Marshall then plays Ark State the next week. Ark State has Tex St this week. They need to lose, so that only one of them and Marshall get a bid. ULL is 5-5 but finished at home with ULM. They are probably in.
MAC- no more than 6. MACtion could have as many as 7 or few as 4. Four are in. CMU, EMU, and WMU/NIU all have a shot. WMU/NIU play tonight. Both are 4-6. Loser is out. Winner has to win next week. I'd rather WMU because they have BGSU next week. NIU has Kent. CMU is 5-5 and has to beat Ohio or Toledo. Not easy and we need them to lose both. EMU is 4-6 and has SloMo and mighty Akron tonight and at Buffalo next week. Lose one.
CUSA-4 is probably it no more or less and that's ok.
MWC They could have as many as 8 which is ok, but the fewer the better. Utah St, SJ State, and Boise are all 5-5. Boise has us in APR so it doesn't matter what they do. Utah St has Boise and New Mexico. They need to lose out but likely aren't. SJSU has SDSU and UNLV. They need to lose out, but like USU likely aren't and that's ok. Colorado St is 4-6 and has to beat Nevada at home(likely), and Hawaii on the road(iffier than you'd think) to get eligible. Lose one, but them winning doesn't kill us.
All this said here's what we need from each conference:
ACC-10 teams
Big 10-10 teams
SEC-9 teams
Big XII-9 teams
PAC 12-7 teams
Independents-1 team
AAC-7 teams
Sun Belt-10 teams
CUSA-4 teams
MAC-6 teams
MWC-8 teams
That's 81 teams, and we'd be 82. All that I typed above doesn't ALL have to happen just some of it. I just gave you a guide of who to pull for to be safe. Of course, we have to at least beat USM or it doesn't matter.
Cliff notes: what percent chance we get a bowl with a 5-7 record? Like 50 or like 80?
Depends. Somewhere in between 30-70. I know that's a big gap. We'll know a lot more this weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
6-6
Will and Woody return to beat a Kiffenless O M.
Accept. Winners show up and play. Losers look for excuses not to play. We need to rebuild our culture. If there is a game at 2:00 AM played on a deserted island in the North Sea, and the field is littered in broken glass, winners show up and show out. Losers make excuses.
CBS(Jerry Palm) and the Athletic both have us projected to the Liberty at 5-7. EMU beat the Fightin' Moorhead's last night and NIU beat WMU. We'd rather the results have been reversed, but as of right now doesn't affect much. We do need CMU to lose to Ohio tonight. JMU and Jax State are supposed to hear from the NCAA about their waiver request this afternoon. If they rule against I'd say our bowl chances at 5-7 shoot up from 40% to 80%.
I have never liked the idea of a team with a losing or even 6-6 record making a bowl, but the vast number of bowls today changed all that with so many teams needed to fill them. That said, we really need to go this year even at 5-7 for more practice sessons for our young players. Long shot, but maybe our new coach could/would be available for this. A successful HC hire's coach might coach his current team's bowl or they might want him to go ahead and cut ties as they move forward.
Central Michigan lost which is good for us. Also, JMU and Jax State were denied their bowl waiver. However, if there are not enough 6 win teams they get picked first, so it doesn't help us.
Was anybody ahead of or even with us eliminated from contention today?
Not really. We really need both Central and Eastern Michigan to lose next week, and both will most likely be underdogs(CMU vs Toledo and EMU at Buffalo). We need Nebraska to lose to Wisconsin(currently down 17-14) and next week at Iowa. We need Illinois to lose to NW. UCF needs to lose to Houston, while BYU needed to lose at Okie Lite. TCU needs to lose at OU. Florida needs to continue to lose to Missouri and against FSU next week. SC needs to lose to either UK(down 14-10) or Clemson next week. Wazzu needs to lose to Washington. Cal needs to lose at UCLA. USF needs to lose to Charlotte. Marshall needs to lose to Ark St. Colorado State needs to lose at Hawaii. Utah State needs to lose at New Mexico. SJSU needs to lose to SDSU and at UNLV. Now, we don't need all of that to happen. Most likely just half of it. If all of that happens we are in easily. So, there's your rooting guide in case we lose Thursday night.
Dude do you have a massive headache right now? That stuff looks like some of the formulas they pulled off the crashed ufos at Roswell lol!Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
I enjoy this stuff. Keeps my mind going. Mizzou needs to hang on against Florida. It looked like I Syracuse was done against GT, but they've fought back. If they win that'd knock an ACC team out which would be huge. Wisconsin beating Nebraska was huge. Also, root for Virginia to be VA Tech. That'd knock another team out. As well as, ULM to beat ULL.
Appreciate it man! I hope you keep this updated because my old brain would short circuit trying to figure all this out!Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200