4-8 is no guarantee.
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This was Arnett's 4th game and we've looked woefully unprepared in all of them. If he can't look competent with this veteran team, what are we going to look like during next year's rebuild? We've made a grave mistake and are back to the Croom years of uncompetitiveness. At least Croom had a defense...
LSU will end up with ~3 losses. They aren't as good as some on here make them out to be. FSU trounced them then nearly lost to a BC team that lost to a horrible NIU and barely beat Holy Cross.
I see two games on our schedule that we should definitely win and that's Western Michigan and Southern Miss. Where else are we optimistic about getting two more wins? SC just gave Georgia a game and we play them at their home. I'll never believe we beat Bama until we do. We play at ARK. At AU. KY looks good. At A&M. Then who knows what happens on Thanksgiving. After week 3 I don't think there can be any question about it that we're the worst team in the SEC right now. We were lucky to beat AZ at home being gifted 5 turnovers and after that game I knew we were in trouble but some would have others believe we went and nearly threw that game so we could hide a few plays.
I'm wasn't predicting that LSU is a playoff team, my point is they are better than last year and we are worse (or the same at best), so Saturday's loss shouldn't have surprised anyone. Even with Leach coaching, we likely lose that game. We were double digit underdogs.
Arnett isn't going anywhere nor should he. I suspect he'll fire coaches and make changes. He'll figure it out and the team will win.
The good ones show it quick.
Learning curve is a myth. You know really quick when teams are well coached
Name me the coaches that greatly underperformed year 1 and turned out good? Sure there are some, but for every 1 you find there are 10 that simply kept sucking.
Could Arnett be the 1 who pans out? Sure. But he hired a bad DC, probably hired a bad PC, hired a bad WR coach, and hired a bad OL coach, and hired a couple more retread assistants because they've been here before. He has very few coaching connections and this season isn't going to make anyone want to hitch their careers to him. We can always poach a G5 position coach just because of pay but getting a proven OC or DC is going to be hard. Especially if Arnett wants to keep his D- he'll have to take over the plycalling and some of the coaching himself if he wants his system to work here. Brock ain't it.
Bobby Bowden went 5-6 at Fla St
Bear Bryant went 1-9 at Texas A&M
Howard Schnellenberger had 3 straight losing seasons to begin at Louisville
People were saying Kirby Smart going 8-5 at Georgia in Y1 was underachieving
Remind me again- who was picked last in the West this season by damn near everyone?
If we still look pitiful by the end of the year and go 5-7 or 4-8, go get Mike Elko from Duke and be done with it
Inexperienced I can live with and give a chance to learn and grow. No excuse though, to admit two weeks in a row that the staff had this experienced 9 win team last year unprepared. This could be JoMo 2.0 trying to pound round pegs into square holes. The offense has reminded me of Croom/Woody and the defense is terrible at this point to boot. Beat SC or this season could be very long.
Apart from Kirby Bryant and Schnellenberger are different cases. Schnellenberger came into Louisville already with a winning background although looking at Louisville's record during his tenure apart from a couple good years they weren't anything special and barely rode above .500. Bryant of course already had big success at KY before A&M. I think the main point is that Arnett had no indicators that he was ready. Kirby had 8 years under arguably the GOAT. Mullen came over with huge success on offense coaching under Urban Meyer. I liker Arnett and it's nothing against him personally but we keep shooting ourselves in the foot with these hires and I'm not just talking HC.
The good thing is, Selmon has been around the Air Raid his entire career as a member of athletic departments.
Read all the fall camp how good and deep our DL was that we might play some 4 down linemen. We did have two sacks from DL against LSU but we have barely touched the QB in three hoime games. We often send two LB's and still get no pressure and then get eat up on short passes in the flats in the very area the LB's vacated. We need to try a more traditional 4 down linemen with two tackles and two DE's (JMO), as it couldn't be much worse. We knew our LB's aren't very fast, maybe they need to stay more in position instead of blitzs that don't get there. Cushions given by DB's and safetys isolated alone against opponents' best receiver boggles the mind.
I'm an old Dog, looks like I fell for how good, fast and deep we were at DL and LB. Was insulted when a team with 19 SR/grad starters were coming back on a 9 win team from last year was picked last by media and coaches. Knew we had to rebuild secondary, but thought we had some good underclassmen and transfers. Add in a rookie HC/staff at several positions, new O and this is tough to watch. The Air Raid with quick short passes also hid major weaknesses of the QB and OL. Zac was better at DC than HC to date. Brock and Barbay look totally lost.
It's not just our team they look at when picking the order of finish, it's about what EVERY team did in the off season to get better. The barn hired a great coach (bad human though), UM brought in some good transfers, Ark lost a good OC, we lost a very good coach and replaced him with someone who has zero business leading a big time program in the toughest conference in the land, plus we lost one of our best WRs, a 1st round CB and our second best RB.
That we were picked last, should surprise no one. We didn't get much better from the portal (unless I'm missing some one). The portal was a net loss for us.
Selmon ain't going to do anything one way or the other. 99% of athletic directors are bureaucrats who shake hands, kiss babies, and kiss ass to donors. That's the way it is. There are very few who get up every morning fired up to get in the office and compete like a son-of-a-bitch at their profession. It's a job full of guys who coast and look good representing. Their salary and title tells them they have "made it in life", and they perform like they've already made it. It is what it is. The AD who gets up 365 days per year determined to whip the biggest bully on the block and become king of the hill is almost impossible to find. And generally a suit in a college president's office would be too intimidated to hire one anyway.
I certainly hope he does.
If our boosters are involved, I'm not sure we will like the outcome. Think about it. We were legitimately an hour or so away from hiring Joe Judge back in 2020 to replace Joe Moorhead. That was John Cohen getting us a Mississippi State guy that our boosters would support after Moorhead.
No doubt. My prediction is that we will have some boosters that reach out to Dan Mullen, and he will not show any interest in returning to the sidelines. After that, they will probably just decide to keep Zach Arnett.
EDIT: It took a national embarrassment before they fired Joe Moorhead.
I will say this, if he goes 4-8 this year, keeps his job, and we run it back with this same staff then next year will be an unmitigated disaster. Tech and 10 would not be out of the realm of possibility. We need MASSIVE help out of the portal at about 19 of 22 positions next year and our NIL is not set up to keep our players AND bring in new ones. No matter what happens the rest of the way this year, we will need a minor miracle or multiple guys to take MASSIVE steps forward to make a bowl next year.
Seriously, what changes or improvements has Selmon brought to the athletic department in his short time at the helm? Low key, behind the scenes or other?