I think they are the second best team we play as well. They are still extremely beatable though, unless they have improved dramatically. The West is very balanced this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
Printable View
I think they are the second best team we play as well. They are still extremely beatable though, unless they have improved dramatically. The West is very balanced this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
I sort of have that same line of thought, just wasn't confident enough to put it as a W yet. If we played them early, before they get a chance to figure things out, I think it's a for sure win. But with the roller coaster of last year, it being away and it being later in the year, I currently think it's an L. Hope I'm wrong. So many current unknowns, it's all a guessing game at this point. Freeze is a good coach. I think it could go either way.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
They also sucked on the road last year. Lost to 5-7 Aggie, barely beat 6-6 ark, barely beat 5-7 auburn, struggled with 6-6 Florida. I'd pick lsu, but it's not a guaranteed loss for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
I say we go 7-5.
It's not going to be that hard. It was harder teacher our OL to pass block for the Air Raid. This is back to basic fundamental football with regular splits and traditional sets. This is stuff most of these guys ran in high school. It's not going to be this massive transition. My prediction is we see a pretty big jump in offensive proficiency after the first couple of games, more so than with the Air Raid.Quote:
Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog
Auburn's quarterback hasn't even gotten to campus yet. Didn't go through the spring. He's also just an above average guy in normal situations. For all of the talk about our new scheme, Auburn is also changing schemes. Last I checked, OM wasn't some juggernaut in Freeze's first year at OM, and they had their quarterback all spring.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceWranglerDawg
I agree the offense has potential, and I think it's right to say that it's mostly depended on the OL being able to run block.
I'm saying I think it's likely we won't be anywhere near that potential till late in the season. Remember 2016? First year of Fitz? We had an O that was doing exactly what they had always done, but that O took time to get going because the QBs hadn't settled in. 1 position woth a new player made the offense struggle early. Well, now we've got 11 players being asked to do something new to a degree. I can't believe they'll all be clicking immediately
You mean the year Peter Sirmon used Swiss Cheese as a defensive scheme? We got in a shoot out with both Kentucky and BYU. Just an average defense that year and we win 8 games easy.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
Transitioning to Barbay's offense is going to be a lot easier than transitioning to Leach's. Barbay isn't trying to reinvent the wheel.
I'm aware that Peter sirmon was the biggest problem of that team. But I'm talking offense. They didn't really put it together till the 2nd half:Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
20 vs USA
27 vs USC
20 vs LSU
47 vs UMass
14 vs Auburn
21 vs BYU (OT)
After that we turned it on:
38 vs Kentucky
56 vs Samford
35 vs A&M
3 vs Bama
42 vs Arky
55 vs OM
Let's remove the FCS and Bama blowouts to get a good look at peer competition. The first half of the season we averaged 20.4 ppg. The 2nd half we averaged 42.5 ppg.
But having a defense with a pulse we don't need to average 42.5 a game. And, hell, that 42.5 a game was b/c our defense was running around clueless. We had to keep scoring.Quote:
Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us
He beat us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Last time Rev. Bucky played us we thrashed him and sent him to coaching rehabQuote:
Originally Posted by SpaceWranglerDawg
That doesn’t change what his offense was in year 1. Just decent. He’s not some damn coaching genius but our fans act scared to death of his goofy ass. He’s had 2 good seasons in 5 years of FBS football. He went 5-7 and got boatraced the last time we faced him. No one in this conference is scared of Hugh Freeze, particularly in year 1. They don’t have the talent they need to scare anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceWranglerDawg
His reply was to a comment about how Ole Miss wasn't a juggernaut in 2012 and he correctly pointed out that they kicked our ass that year.Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
And that doesn’t change that his team went 6-6 and to the Birmingham Bowl. They weren’t very good. Our 2012 team wasn’t either. If we play to our potential with this 2023 team we will beat Auburn this year, just like we have the past 2 years. They are not going to be very good in 2023. If they beat us it will say a lot more about us than it does them.Quote:
Originally Posted by msu15
I understand thatQuote:
Originally Posted by msu15
And let us not forget the late season pimping of Dan Mullen. I believe Dan was pimping himself to UConn that November.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
So what say you when we go 4-8 this year?Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Good gosh man, kind of a cruel thing to say given the circumstances.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Also no idea how one can confidently say that given what Leach?s track record of success over 20 years was and now we are operating with a first time, 36 year old head coach. I like Arnett but he has proven absolutely nothing so far. Leach was not perfect but there was a bare minimum standard you felt like you could trust him to meet.
Ehhh?.Quote:
Originally Posted by msu15
The barometer for me is @ South Carolina the next week
I?m very high on LSU this year, I think they repeat as West division champs.
Our team this year imo is a 8-4 team maybe 9-3 if we can win @ South Carolina
If we beat LSU in week 3 I?m going to buy tickets to the SEC championship game.
We won?t go 4-8. Mark it down. The defense is too good. And at the very least the offense will be the same as last year in terms of ppg.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandjunky
Yeah, I agree on the South Carolina barometer. LSU and Bama are well out of our league. If Arnett can keep us competitive in those games that's a win for us. But, going on the road and beating Beamer would be a nice feather in the cap for a first year head coach. We will have the better defense for sure in that match up.Quote:
Originally Posted by PikeDawg15
Well, I said "near guaranteed loss". But if you're playing the game of marking "W" "L" or "toss up" on our schedule, they don't fit under "W" or "toss up". That's about an 80% "L". Could we beat them? Sure. But they're the better team, by far. If you had to put a year's salary on the outcome of the game, I think you would have to pick them. They'll be a double digit favorite, I suspect.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
ETA: FPI is out. Not that it's that great or anything, but it's a data point.
Alabama Crimson Tide – FPI: 28.2, Record: 11.1-1.6
Georgia Bulldogs – FPI: 27.4, Record: 11.7-1.2
LSU Tigers – FPI: 22.1, Record 9.6-2.6
Tennessee Volunteers – FPI: 15.2, Record: 8.2-3.9
Ole Miss Rebels – FPI: 13.4, Record: 7.6-4.4
Florida Gators – FPI: 12.7, Record: 6.8-5.2
Texas A&M Aggies – FPI: 12.7, Record: 7.5-4.5
Kentucky Wildcats – FPI: 9.7, Record: 7.2-4.9
Arkansas Razorbacks – FPI: 9.0, Record: 6.8-5.2
Mississippi State Bulldogs – FPI: 7.8, Record: 6.3-5.7
Auburn Tigers – FPI: 6.9, Record: 5.8-6.2
Missouri Tigers – FPI: 6.4, Record: 6.0-6.0
South Carolina Gamecocks – FPI: 5.6, Record: 5.5-6.5
Vanderbilt Commodores -FPI: -2.8, Record: 4.0-8.0
I still don?t believe there?s a for sure loss on our schedule this year. Mainly because we get bama and lsu at home this year even tho I would say it?s above 90% chance we lose to both of them by double digits.Quote:
Originally Posted by PMDawg
I wish we could have swapped those 2 home games for 2 home games against South Carolina and auburn
I think Texas A&M will be slightly improved and Arkansas will be very similar to last season, if not slightly worse.
Arkansas losing Kendall briles is going to hurt them badly. Also losing Barry odom will hurt badly and they tried to blame the defense all on him last year but Arkansas recruiting the past few years hasn?t been focused on defensive players. Pretty sure they had 3 walk ons playing majority of snaps last season on defense
This team is a 9-10 win with LeachQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
SELA - WQuote:
Originally Posted by DeltaSwamp
Zona - W
LSU - L
SC - Toss( today , I will call it a win)
Bama - L
WM- W
Arkansas - Toss ( I have no clue)
Auburn - W
Kentucky - W
Texas A&M - Toss ( I?m calling a win. We have their number)
Southern Miss -Win
Ole Miss - Toss ( I?m calling a win)
LSU is not out of our league. We had them on the ropes last year on the road. They barely beat a really bad Auburn and Florida team and got their asses kicked by a horrible A&M team, along with losing to Tennessee by almost 30 points. They will be favored to beat us but that’s going to be a really good football game that could go either way, as it has been for a decade now.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
Quote:
Originally Posted by PMDawg
LSU at home is closer to a tossup than a guaranteed loss. They were not some overpowering force last year.
They will be better this year. That was Brian Kelly's first year. They out recruit us by a mile. We could pull it out but I highly doubt it. But it would be so MSU to thump LSU one Saturday and then go to USC the next and get murdered by Shane Beamer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
They have out recruited us forever and so has A&M but ask Jimbo how that paper tiger has worked out...Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
The logo on the helmet instills more fear in fans than it does playersQuote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
They are out of league. They have a top 5 coach and a ton of momentum. We have a first year coach and new offensive philosophy. It will take some game action to get our new offense down pat. Plus they "out talent" us by a mile (they 4th in the SEC and we are 12th). Talent doesn't mean everything (we punch way over our head in this area), but add talent to a good coach and more turning starters and you have the situation we are faced with. We have a chance, but when counting wins and losses before the season, you count that as a loss. We only have two high probability losses, which is pretty good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Should be fairly obvious that we're not playing last year's LSU team. They played a lot of young guys on the OL, and got better as the year went on. Their QB got better too. Yes, they lost to A&M, but that's become quite a rivalry game. It's kind of like the Egg Bowl - throw the records and expectations out. That outcome doesn't color my outlook.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
Of course I can't guarantee the outcome of that game. But, LSU will (as usual) finish ahead of us in the SECW standings, and they will be favored against us. Their O/U for the season, per Vegas, is 9.5 wins. Ours is 6.5. They'll be a heavy favorite unless something crazy happens between now and then. But, hey, NCAAF can be totally unpredictable. Perhaps they end up being an overrated team that falls flat on their face. I'm willing to accept that I could be wrong on this. Personally, I don't think that's the barometer game because I think it's the 2nd hardest game on our schedule. But, if that's your barometer game, so be it.
^^^^This^^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by viverlibre
The only guaranteed loss is Alabama. Our sacks shrink up at the sight of them.
We can win any of the others. I still say we win 8 or 9 this year if the offense comes along.
I seem to remember that we also barely beat a very bad, disorganized, Cadillac williams led Auburn team. They also beat Alabama who beat us soundly. Over the past decade it has been a toss up, but what is our w/l against them over the last ten years?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
LSU has a running QB and the Dawgs can't catch a running QB. Proved that all last year.
We will be better on defense this year and our offense changing styles is not going to make that much of a difference because it was very mediocre last year. We have them at home. It’s not going to be a huge surprise to beat a team that lost 4 games last year at home.Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapGame
I seem to remember us beating the shit out of a bad Texas A&M team that stomped a mud hole in their ass last year. I seem to remember them barely beating that same auburn team. I seem to remember them barely beating a bad Florida team. I seem to remember them barely beating a bad Arkansas team. I seem to remember them getting boatraced by Tennessee. We are 3-7 the past ten years. We aren’t going to be favored, but it’s not going to be that big of an upset if we beat them. They are just ok offensively.Quote:
Originally Posted by Activated Alpha
They are not out of our league on the field of play. We had a 1 game difference in record last year and we return a ton just like they do and get them at home. They don’t have a ton of momentum. They lost 4 games. That’s not good by LSU standards. They took advantage of the SEC West when it was down and Alabama was not normal Alabama and then proceeded to get murdered every time they played a good sec opponent outside Alabama. The game will be very close. I think a lot of you are just looking at the fact that they won the West and beat Alabama without adding in the context of how they played the rest of the year against common opponents, along with the fact that Alabama wasn’t normal Alabama last year. Yea, Alabama boatraced us last year and will this year too because we piss our pants every time we see their uniform on the field with us, but they could have easily been 8-4 last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by viverlibre