Hey you might want to stage out of CCs place. Quick access to the north/south Corridors and East West corridors.
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Hey you might want to stage out of CCs place. Quick access to the north/south Corridors and East West corridors.
Appreciate the concern…but I only have a family place down in the pine belt. I’m back home in the golden triangle now. Back to the real world tomorrow. We look to be out of the bullseye up here but I’ll keep an eye out just in case.Quote:
Originally Posted by parabrave
Back in the 90s two separate tornadoes hit our place in smith county. Destroyed some timber and one threw a 14 ft Jon boat about 150 yards and wrapped it around a light pole. I always pay special attention to the warnings when I’m down that way.
Hunter going to be getting a lot of Intv walks for now on.
Sorry Wrong thread
It looks like it may be bad. Any update?
Potential is there but I'm also seeing something that may mitigate things. Some of the models are showing this more of a qlcs event and less of a discrete cell event. If this ends up being the case Tuesday will be more of a damaging wind threat than a tornado threat. But if discrete cells form out in the warm sector then it could be bad. I'm waiting for the 7:00pm model runs to start coming in around 9:00pm and then the SPC update at 1:00am.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
Thanks man! Keep us posted! You're info is invaluable!Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
I've also noticed things trending more to the southwest corner of the state, and La. Certainly hope it's more of a QLCS event, regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
I've been thinking that area will be ground zero for a while. For a couple days a few models tried to push it further north and one is trying to develop things in the SE so there's some disagreement on things. Why I'm very interested in seeing these updates.Quote:
Originally Posted by ArrowDawg
From NWS New Orleans
https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/g...f8f390cbe723f2
You're screwed CC.
The NAM has this thing lining up still and not sporadic. Will be interesting to see the HRRR. Will hopefully know more in about an hour.
Wow I just read the NWS shorterm foercast discussion for the New Orleans area and am having brain freeze. Never seen it as long and as detailed.
If you are very bored or want a nerd head explosion here you go:
https://forecast.weather.gov/css/def...ackground1.gif
Sorry try this one.
https://forecast.weather.gov/glossar...t%20Discussion
Hey SVD and Scooba Is this a bad graph?/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...90N_87.77W.png
And please decipher it for us
That hodograph is really curvedQuote:
Originally Posted by parabrave
Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.
Are you seeing what I'm seeing from about Meridian down to the coast around noon?Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
Hattiesburg or Wiggins.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
So this is bad:Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...13N_88.82W.png
And this is not so bad?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...73N_89.30W.png
And this is??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...95N_89.44W.png
Explain it to me like I'm 5.Quote:
Originally Posted by parabrave
Explain it to me like I'm 4Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I have seen that and it made me pause. I'm just hesitant to think those will be severe due to how far away they are from the heart of the storm. They may be too far out ahead of the best instability and shear to be more than low end severe. Just got to see how the moisture and instability work north.Quote:
Originally Posted by ArrowDawg
The first one you'd have a hard time getting severe weather and the other two forget about it. Just ain't happening. Take the middle one for example. You see how all of the wind barbs are basically pointing the same direction as you go from bottom to top? That's indicating unidirectional wind flow (out of the SW here) as you go up in altitude. You want turning with height. Ideally, at the bottom you want winds out of the SE at the surface and veering around to the west or NW at the top. Also look at the right with all the numbers. You will see a couple that end in CIN. That's convective inhibition, or a cap. Anything over 150 is a strong cap. 250 like you see here would take a nuke to break.Quote:
Originally Posted by parabrave
If you're interested or just extremely bored, go our storm chasing team YouTube page (NMSCAS) and search for my video series and find video 3. Thats the one that breaks down several of the severe parameters and what to look for on these soundings. Hell, give all five of them a listen to if you like. Videos 3-5 are probably the best.
Thanks dude/
Y'all stay safe!! CC especially you be!
Headed back to Tennessee.
Thanks man! Safe travels!Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
How slow this thing seems to be moving, it has to go linear by the time it hits central MS.
It will be linear before it ever crosses the river. But as we hit peak daytime heating there's a chance some discrete or semi discrete cells form out ahead. If they do they stand a better than average chance of producing a tornado and producing one that might be on up the food chain.Quote:
Originally Posted by defiantdog
Texas is getting hammered today.
Nader Warning now here in Fort Worth.
Stay safe!Quote:
Originally Posted by OLJWales
Well the ABC national news must think it will be bad here in central Mississippi tomorrow. With all that is going on in the world these days it was their lead story tonight.
The storm in Texas and a tornado hitting a school and then they had their weather girl Ginger Zee who was televising from Jackson, MS. Hope she had some security!
Thanks Commerce. Sirens were going off about 10 minutes ago with some pea sized hail. Hope nobody hurt but I hafta admit there's some beauty to that green tint in the sky.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Here's the latest from Jackson NWS:
The combination of instability and shear will
support supercells along and ahead of the front, curved hodographs
(strong speed and directional shear) at least initially supporting
discrete supercells as a storm mode. Strong southerly component to
flow aloft may support an increasingly linear storm mode as the
event progresses, with a focus for severe weather at that point
following any bowing segments along established QLCS structures.
Effective storm-relative helicity in exceedance of 300-400 m2/s2
will support quick intensification of rotation in storms, and
strong to significant tornadoes could occur from these storms. In
addition to tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible with severe storms tomorrow.
You're welcome, stay safe! Looks like we'll be ducking for cover over here tomorrow!Quote:
Originally Posted by OLJWales
You too and all my home STATE Bulldog Brethren and my 81 yr old Mom in Jacktown. Stay safe I'll be checkin in on yall and the ED Meteorologist Team.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Checking out a mighty purty rainbow rat now.
Since this post is getting long, after the midnight update I'll start a new thread. I'll be chasing so once I hit the road I probably won't be on here very much, if at all. Kind of need to concentrate on what I'm doing. I've driven into three tornadoes chasing and the family would prefer I not make it number four any time soon. Live stream will be up tomorrow so in the off chance any of y'all are a Patreon supporter at the $5/month level you'll be able to see what I see. If not ans you hear a report of a gray Dodge Ram pulling a wizard of oz you can realize I made #4 yesterday after all.
Thanks for all you do! Stay safe! If you're down this way and need help just holler!Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
Pretty bad stuff just rolled through here in Plano. Skies got green and it was eerily quiet.
College Station has a nasty storm headed for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
The latest HRRR run has chosen violence I see.