Printable View
Ok well you will have a big opportunity to make some cash then because we will be a 10 point underdog at minimum unless they have more people opt out. If they have some more leave it will get down that low but not at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.
Jump on it. It hasn’t been updatedQuote:
Originally Posted by msbulldog
Jacoby Stevens is rumored to be the next to opt out by the end of the week. Former 5 star. If he leaves then man....the secondary is no longer very good for them either outside of Stingley.
And he can’t cover 5 guysQuote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
TK McKlendon - starting DE is now reported in the Portal ... forgive if this has been posted somewhere already
I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5dQuote:
Originally Posted by msbulldog
Good for you. I think it’ll be LSU -<10 by game timeQuote:
Originally Posted by RocketCityDawg
And our WRs minus a couple haven't looked good. I don't think you understand what the real practice reports look like. Our defense hasn't been good. Long way to go there and not sure we'll get there this year. WR has been really inconsistent. Also, I don't expect Heath to start/play. And that hurts.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Nothing wrong with optimism, but reality still bites.
Something is definitely going on down on the Bayou. Gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out. I'm not saying it isn't the case, but the chances of this being solely related to COVID is slim.
That's a good get.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketCityDawg
We better score 50 if you want a cover. Cause we gonna give up a ton of yards and points.
Wait, we’re giving up 67 points?Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Bill C. released new Top and Bottom 10 rankings for returning production accounting for transfers and opt-outs. Among teams that are tentatively set to play this fall, LSU has the 3rd least returning production in the country . . . and we're not too far behind at 8th:
AS for what that normally means, here's an explanation from Jan. 2019:
If you're interested, Bill C. also just released his updated S&P+ rankings. He included all FBS teams for the first poll and said he'll pare it down to only teams actually playing once the season starts. The S&P+ likes our offense's chances this season. Projected 26th nationally among all FBS teams, which is good for top half of the SEC. Defense . . . yeah, not so much. Projected 73rd on that front.Quote:
Most of the teams near the top of the list should be in good shape.
Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on these calculations; 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points. Last year's top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved . . . .
On the flip side, teams at the bottom might have lean years.
Meanwhile, 80 teams [over the past five years] returned no more than 50 percent of their production; 65 of them (81 percent) regressed, 36 (45 percent) by at least a touchdown. Last year's bottom 10 teams saw their win total decrease by a combined 27 games, from 76 to 49. LSU and FIU each managed to improve by one win, and Colorado held steady at 5-7. The other seven all fell by at least two wins, and four (Navy, Colorado State, Louisville, and CMU) all fell by at least four . . . .
Of course, we were high in his returning production rankings the past 2 years, and we see how that turned out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
No joke, man. Maybe we can continue being an outlier bucking the trends, stinking when we should be improve and improving when we should stink.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
ETA: Actually, we weren't high in his returning-production rankings last year. Even before the suspensions, we were 92nd nationally.
Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.
Correct and that’s a huge issue with MSU and ESPN FPIQuote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
I don't know what data ESPN's FPI uses, but Bill C. says that the returning production data he compiles and incorporates into the S&P+ does include transfers:Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
(The dude asking the question is from Rutgers' SB Nation site. As of late July, Rutgers had ten dudes transfer in, many from other Big 10 schools.)
Yes, but Costello was hurt last year, so his returning production stinks. Costello only played in 5 games last year and threw for 1038 yards and 6 TDsQuote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
However, in 2018 he threw for 3,500 yards and 29 TDs
So what year is more representative of what MSU is getting?
My theory:
LSU players have been wined and dined since last year. They know they won't win a title this year and may lose several games. When that happens the wining and dining stops. Unless they aren't on the team anymore. Then it's "yeah we were good when I was playing nose tackle."
It does not however include JUCO players since that is a niche for MSU. It also doesn't take into account our extremely poor S&C, culture and discipline from the previous staff either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
Agree. And an example that supports this is that the Nose Guard that opted out yesterday is currently 370 while LSU wants him at 330.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
I think Coach O does somethings very well, but he?s simply not the CEO needed to maintain a program. My guess is that he doesn?t have the organizational skills nor the other CEO needed to maintain like Saban does.
It?s been said that Saban could run GE. He?s that type of CEO. Can you imagine O running a real company?
I think O caught lightening in a bottle but in the long run LSU is going to be a mess
Possibly, but I don't know that. In response to a comment about Kentucky's situation, where Terry Wilson is coming back after getting hurt last year, Bill C. said that he plugged Wilson's 2018 numbers into the formula:Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
I'm not on Twitter, but I guess someone who is could confirm that Costello's '18 numbers are reflected in the returning-production stats. I'd be interested to know.
Also remember that we're bringing back all of Shrader's stats at the QB position, too, and he accounted for a little over half our total yards at the QB position. So it's not like the cupboard was totally bare to begin with.
Regardless, I'm not sure how much this all affects our S&P+ projection. The offense is projected at 26th. The defense is the unit bringing the projection down. (Note, too, that even before the transfers on defense, we were 113th nationally in returning defensive production.)
And to bring my babbling back home, my points were just these: (1) On the original topic of the thread, LSU lost an insane of amount of production from last year. Barring something completely out of the ordinary happening -- as five years' worth of data shows, teams at the bottom regress 80% of the time -- LSU's going to be markedly worse than last year. (2) We're not in a great shape under those same metrics, either. Yes, there are tons of variables. But putting all that aside, most teams that return as little production as State (and LSU) this year haven't gotten better. I sure hope that the improvements in S&C and discipline stuff alone can make up for this. And it's certainly got to help some. But that doesn't mean that I'm going to ignore the facts, either.
I'm willing to bet Heath plays and the Offense scores alot. From what I'm hearing and my opinion just the conditioning the Offense does will be a nightmare for LSU. It will be hot, humid, muggy, and we're pressing tempo. Once we settle down offensively LSU is going to be in trouble. They'll be gassed by halftime. The second half we're going to drag them. Mark it!Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Costello’s #s are from 2019. Brad Edwards went on Bo’s show and explained why the number for MSU was so bad and that was the main reason. If they used Costello’s 2018 #s we would look much better per Edwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ootball-season
And the hits Just Keep coming. Coach O says 1 or 2 more are considering opting out. I can’t wait to play them.
For ESPN's FPI, Bill C.'s S&P+ data, or both? I assume they're using at least some different inputs since FPI projects us at 71st and S&P+ projects us at 48th.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
So what will be the thoughts if we get whipped?? Season over?? Just askingQuote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
If we get whipped we will need to improve to get to 3 wins because if LSU has 2 more starters opt out they will struggle to go .500Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
We can think that State is going to be just average and LSU is too. Thinking we can beat this team doesn’t mean we think State is any better. How many people do they have to have defect before you will admit that we should be able to compete with them? We have had 3 straight top 25 recruiting classes. We aren’t playing sunbelt players on our side. If their 5 star safety quits (the rumor) and any other starter they will basically be playing with the same type players we are at every position outside one cornerback spot.
Our defense is not good at present. At all. Now the jucos will get better and help. Arnett is good. But he can't fix our problems w this talent. And youth. LSU still has more talent than us. Now the good news is our qb is better. But it will be his first game in the new system. LSU doesn't have a new system. Advantage LSU.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
We?re not getting whipped! This is a Mike Leach coached team with more talent than he?s ever had! The guy is not an unknown! His sample size and win percentage (at two historically garbage programs) is SOLID! We?re winning this game!Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Ok. Obviously more defections matter. Clearly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
This is the year to reset the culture.
I've accepted that we're going to see some horrific defense from out secondary at times, but, if those same young players, bring the wood and keep playing, I bet they do some things.
I'm really to see toughness and the football culture that represents MSU again.
Do that, and we'll be in a good spot following this season.
Coach O has shown that he can be a good CEO coach but the problem is in addition to all the players he lost- he also lost his offensive guru in Brady and he also lost Aranda. This is also his first time to win on a level like this- and he doesn't know how to handle that as a head coach. At least not yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
LSU is basically Auburn 2010. They had a phenomenal generational talent at QB and paired him with an offense that really showcased his skill set perfectly. They weren't really dominant on defense and they won all of their shootouts. Several games could have gone either way for them- Alabama, Texas, just off the top of my head.
I think long term LSU will actually be fine. Especially if they can land Manning in a few years. O can recruit. But I imagine after this year he is going to have to reset the culture after they get knocked on their ass a few times.
LSU has a new offensive guy and other than last year Ensminger has always been average at best. Which is probably why Brady got so much credit. Either that or Ensminger had a generational talent that even Croom couldn't screw up. And then LSU has a new DC in Pelini.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Did you miss the part of my post where I linked the article where O said more defections are possibly coming? I am well aware that they currently have more talent than we do. It’s not by much at the moment and if 2 more defect as the article says could clearly happen then their problems with talent will be just as big as ours. We have freshman 4 stars we can put out there too but it doesn’t mean they are ready to play. If LSU has 2 more starters quit they will have turned over the entire starting lineup from last year and they will have 69 (nice) players on scholarship. That’s like being on major probation a year after you lost nothing but 1st and second round draft picks off your starting lineup.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Our defense is sirmon bad. W a better coach.... it's not good. Trust me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tripp McNeely
I didn't miss anything dude.... carry on. Hope we win...Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarius
I just don’t understand how LSU can have terrible news about more starters leaving every single day and the first thing people come on here and say is “we are going to suck”. Well, so are they. The same problems we have on defense because of young 4 stars having to play before they are ready is what they are having to do with nearly their entire roster outside of about 4 spots right now. We are no longer playing LSU. We are now playing the equivalent of a mid level SEC team. So yea, we will probably still lose because we are probably slightly below a mid level sec team at the moment but the game went from “we don’t have a snowballs chance in hell to win” to “if we play really well we can win no matter what they do”. That’s exciting to me. Sorry that it offends some people.