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Football is happening. High Schools begin summer workouts in June
Georgia and Fla's corona numbers are dropping since they opened up over a week ago.
Bama's President says football is happening. So did WV's Governor
Alabama hasnt had anyone under the age of 50 die from the Plague
This thing attacks the old or people that have health problems. Its time open everything up and lets roll. The carnage from people being out of work will hurt us way more than the virus if we dont get back to normal lives. Hell, the virus is bringing the 2 martini lunch and mimosas at breakfast back to everyday life. Enough
This isn't just a virus. It's not the flu. It's a pandemic. Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. And it is absolutely possible that it will overwhelm the healthcare system in various regions of the country. I can also tell you that while Georgia is in decline, the southeast has seen a sustained increase in cases the last 4 days in a row with the most significant jump coming yesterday. I completely expect to see stories in the future about PPE shortages, young people dying that didn't even know they had health issues, and ICU bed space limitations. That's a foregone conclusion to "opening up."
It's also not the Spanish Flu either. "It's not the flu" doesn't mean that it's the worst thing in the universe and has no cure and will not get better either. Historically they didn't have the medical advances that we do now in 1918 to make things like vaccines. Of course there will be another wave as we open up- but when that happens more people will have antibodies built up and we will be more prepared from what we have learned from the first wave. I fully expect the media to freak out though. It's what they do. Nevermind that despite crying about how everyone is going to die and that this is the end of the world that it simply hasn't been as bad as everyone feared. In the meantime I'm going to enjoy my day off because the hospital census is too low for me to work.
I'm not sure how much of that is a foregone conclusion (we will see cases come back, we will see more deaths, there will be people of all ages that find out they have underlying conditions they're unaware of, but we won't necessarily see PPE shortages or the healthcare system overrun), but to the extent it's a foregone conclusion, there's no sense in delaying it. It's going to be bad and tragic but manageable and less bad and tragic than just sticking our heads in the sand and hoping we find a treatment or vaccine before everything falls apart.
Second wave? Who knows. We now have three states Washington, FL, and CA showing signs that the virus was in those states as early as November/December.
IMO we have had this for a lot longer than most think
Google the Swine Flu epidemic of 1969. Way worse than this. Nobody quarantined, no businesses shut down and they still held Woodstock that summer.
[QUOTE=Historically, you'll find that the 2nd wave is worse than the first. There's not really a question of whether there will be another wave, it's a question of how bad it will be and when it will happen. [/QUOTE]
I know a number of people that had strange illnesses back in Dec - Jan. I've been sick about twice in the last 20 years. In Jan. I had a nasty coughing chest something the doctor called a lung infection. Took me about a month to get over. In hindsight, I probably had the CV but no one was testing for or diagnosing it then.
All that to say, I'm beginning to think that this last 2 months just might be the 2nd wave. Maybe we missed the first wave calling it everything but CV.
Note: For the entire month that I was coughing up a lung, I did it under the impression that is was not infectious. So I went to work and lived life every day. No one at my office or my home has gotten sick.
You most likely did not have Wuhan unless there is a specific reason to think you were exposed. Even testing people now that are showing symptoms, we are having something like a 10-13% positive rate I think? Not saying you didn't; just that the odds are very much against it.
Actually there is a lot of speculation that it IS about like the Spanish flu with modern nutrition, sanitation, and supportive medical care. Most of the people who are getting oxygen support for example, a MUCH larger number than those on the vent, would have died in 1919.
We had a vaccine for H1N1. With SARS you got real sick, real quick, so there was little to no pre-symptomatic transmission. That is a MUCH easier disease to isolate and eliminate once you know it's there and what to look for. See my above for the difference in this and Spanish Flu.
That Woodstock meme that is going around is either ignorantly or intentionally VERY misleading. The peak of that flu pandemic in the US was Dec 68-Jan 69. It went away by March of 69. It returned for a second wave in Nov 69. Woodstock was in Aug 69. There was no flu epidemic in the US at the time of Woodstock.
I'm not sure how you can say it was worse than this. According to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide,[14] from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969-70.[15] The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S; The disease began in July of 1968 and lasted for almost 18 months. In 18 months, it killed 100K in the US.
We are roughly two months and it has killed more than 85,000 in two months.
If you don't think this is a big deal, or everyone is going to be fine, that is certainly your right, but I don't see you can compare roughly 100K deaths in 18 months versus 85000 deaths in two months as being worse than this.
What I still haven't figured out is how football will work unless everyone is tested and then everyone is quarantined. The time lapse of how this spreads and how healthy people are just as contagious as sick people is simply beyond me.
I hope they figure it out because I'm tired of playing NCAA football 2014 already.
Are you referring to the hospital stats that didn't think there was Wuhan flu in the US and didn't test anyone for it until March? It's hard to make a claim about stats based on data that wasn't taken. How many sicknesses and deaths got labeled pneumonia, lung infection, flu, etc. before this all broke lose and a test was created. I'm not claiming to know for a fact that this is the 2nd wave only saying that I'm beginning to think it could be. It would explain why so many people were showing to have the antibodies so early in this process. If the 2nd wave is typically much worse than the first, maybe we're in it.
1) Hospitals and states are relying on FEMA and HHS/CDC to source PPE already. Their regular suppliers are out. If another wave hits anytime soon, we will again experience PPE shortages.
2) Going back to Todd's point about the advancement of medicine in the last 100 years: the longer we can avoid a 2nd wave the less tragic it will be. We will know how to treat it better, we will have more resources available to treat it, we will have time to study vaccines (likely spring before it's even feasible), we will learn more about the vulnerable populations, we will learn more the spread and infectious rate, we will have testing and tracing widespread and available to identify clusters and growth more rapidly, etc... The longer we implement social distancing orders the better off we will be from a health standpoint. You can't argue otherwise logically.
3) We can't let people starve to death and go bankrupt because 1% of the population may die. I realize that and agree. However it has to be phased. This battle between the "two sides" to "open everything" or "shut down everything" may be the dumbest thing I've ever seen or heard of in the history of this country. This is not a black or white issue. It's a huge gray area that has to be managed day to day. We need better data to help manage social distancing while also trying to balance the nation's economic health. Testing and tracing would give local government officials the confidence they need to press the gas and brakes accordingly. Once that happens, it makes sense to take calculated risks. Right now, (and I've used this before), we walked into the middle of a pitchblack bathroom started peeing and hope we hit the toilet. It's absurd how poorly this has been managed.
You used Woodstock which is ABSOLUTELY misleading at BEST. Now you are trying to defend it. It followed the seasonal flu pattern. It was gone by the end of March and then it came back in November, just like almost every other flu. There was nothing magic about it. I can excuse you for using it the first time. THIS post shows that you don't care about facts that don't suite your argument.
Mississippi's ICU numbers went up by 31 today to 172. That's a 22% jump from yesterday. That is the most since April 21st at least. The vent numbers went up 12%.
1 out of 1 persons will die. Yes Covid is a real disease, how bad is yet to be seen or realized but fact is you can't shut down a service or industrial economy very long or people die from other stuff way more than Covid. Most people agree just need to be smart, good hygene, etc. The fear tactics shut down forever until Covid doesn't kill 1 person crowd is total BS.
As Andy Dufrain said, get busy living or get busy dying. Most are just ready to live. I am still going to be careful though. 95% of people I know with a sane mind think this way. 90% of idiots think we must shut down for 1-2 years when we have 100% conquered Covid.
Everyone that has common sense wants the re-opening to be phased. Even the President. But since we're talking about football I highly suspect that we will be in at worst phase two at that point since we're talking four months from now. High schools where I live are starting football practice/conditioning on June 8th.
The thing about social distancing, the economy, a "second wave"- which we don't know if it will even happen or not- the reality is we only can live in the present moment and make the best decision based on the circumstances at the present. If the economy and the country is about to fall apart and overall as a country things are improving from a flattening the curve standpoint and they are where I live the logical thing to do is to re-open using the guidelines set forth by the government. IF there is a second wave we will have to deal with it at that time. Re-opening the country in phases doesn't mean that PPE will stop being produced.
I can tell you at the hospital where I work that our vent population is now back to where it normally is on average. I can also tell you that the majority of people are surviving this- and I'm talking about exclusively the ones that are coming to the hospital and are on a vent at some point during their stay.