Too early to tell, IMO. The finer points should be hammered out in the next 24-36 hoursQuote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
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Too early to tell, IMO. The finer points should be hammered out in the next 24-36 hoursQuote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Appreciate it.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
It is too early to tell, but if you live anywhere in MS or AL then I would prepare for very dangerous weather.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Central and Northeast LA should prepare as wellQuote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
Here is the part of the SPC discussion that is interesting. The fact that SPC is THIS confident about what they are putting out 3 days out is concerning.
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...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely Sunday into
Sunday night, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana
east-northeastward through much of the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley. Strong, long-tracked tornadoes and potentially widespread
damaging wind are possible.
There was an EF-3 in Monroe Country early that morning. Perhaps that?s what you were thinking of?Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
I think I can speak for all of us. Y'all are an invaluable resource and the info you bring is much appreciated. Thank you to all of you who post this info on here and are so willing to answer questions!
Maybe so. And there may have been one in AL. I'm just too lazy to google this afternoon.Quote:
Originally Posted by EngDawg
You're welcome. But keep in mind Ref is the subject matter expert on all this. I know enough to almost be dangerous and hopefully not get myself killed while out chasing. Although having been directly hit by three tornadoes in the last year I may not be as knowledgeable as I thought I was. At least makes for good live streaming and video, though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
I haven't really gone head-first into weather in a long time. However, this is one where I'll dust off my Meteorology brain and crank the ol' engine up for a test-drive. I may not have access to all of the fancy models and gadgets I've had before, but I can still make accurate forecasts on what I can grab. Honestly, this whole event is one that may just bring me back to posting regularly here. Having a small child and working graveyards may break into this, but who knows. Honestly, I've been too focused on other matters to really want to post on here. But hey...whatever happens happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
I agree 100% with CC, and I appreciate your time and effort in providing us viable information in potential severe weather or severe weather outbreaks. Great to see you back on, Ref.
Glad to be back, honestly.Quote:
Originally Posted by yjnkdawg
Is Tropical Tidbits a good website to see the model runs, for somebody who just has an interest in the weather, and knows a little about fronts, pressure systems, etc. ( I took the two NWS Spotter classes) but not even close to being dangerous like Vegas said he was.
Tropical Tidbits is run by a really cool dude. Anyway, he runs a great site and while his site is more geared towards tropical systems, he offers a lot of good models. For good, free severe weather modeling I use TwisterData.com.Quote:
Originally Posted by yjnkdawg
Edit: the guy's name is Levi
Smithville was a late afternoon tornado, not morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
It wasn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
Only one in Monroe County that day. The Smithville one started in the Wren community as a much weaker tornado. It lifted for a bit and then touched down again with a vengeance.Quote:
Originally Posted by EngDawg
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Originally Posted by TheRef
Thanks for the info, Ref about TwisterData.com. Yeah, I've also watched Levi Cowan on his videos, concerning tropical systems. He is very informative and knowledgeable.
If you follow him on twitter, he's really good about updates on the site and in general maintenance requests for the site. He's on top of things there.Quote:
Originally Posted by yjnkdawg
I agree. And great to have Ref back!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
https://66.media.tumblr.com/be862494...ob6ro1_500.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
Two in Monroe that day. I live in Wren, both passed about two miles from my house. The morning one wasn?t as strong but passed a commercial business just up the road on its right side by about 200 yards. This one was before daylight. The Smithville tornado crossed 45 just 200 yards to the left of the business. No damage from either to the business but total destruction on both sides. The Smithville tornado was about 3 pm, my Dumbass stood in the parking lot at work in Amory and watched it headed up the waterway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
Can y'all speak to timing? Like is it going to be along a squal line that extends from Tupelo to Natchez? And once a line passes you it is over? Or more of an all day event where smn could pop up at anytime during the day?
It's going to be over an extended time. There will be discrete supercells starting mid morning and that will be the storm mode most of the day. Once the cold front approaches a squall line will form and clear everything out.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Early models were showing the squall line to be less severe than the discrete stuff throughout the day, but now the squall line is starting to look scary too. Sunday is looking like a 12 hour roller coaster ride.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
The discrete cells will have your greatest risk for the strong long track tornadoes and the extremely large hail. The line will be your biggest threat for the damaging straight line winds. That said, the line can still produce tornadoes and hail, but typically they won't be as intense as those in the discrete cells. Right now I'm anticipating a 3-5 hour window of discrete supercells and then the squall line pushing through and clearing it all out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb
Great info guys! Do you all think it will come as far north as Southaven/Memphis area?
I don't think the morning one was ever officially defined as a tornado.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgbite
It's looking more and more likely. As it stands now, Memphis is in the day 3 enhanced field already. There will definitely be severe stuff there when the squall line comes through. How much discrete severe weather you get will depend on how far north the warm front gets and how much time the atmosphere gets to recover from sunday morning convection.Quote:
Originally Posted by jgunn
My all time favorite movie.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
It’s cold tonight. Like stupid cold for tonight. Doesn’t feel like it’s gonna get bad weather!!
Latest SPC guidance is out. As expected, it has remained a moderate threat over much of MS with a 15% hatched threat for tornadoes and a 30% hatched for wind and hail. Jackson NWS is saying hail up to tennis ball size will be possible Sunday. They did leave the door wide open for an upgrade to a high risk, but there are a few issues that need to be resolved mainly dealing with how morning convection may or may not hamper the main event afternoon storms.
LOL I go and look at all the maps and read everything I can....then I come here to find out what the hell I just looked at. I can't thank you guys enough for being here.
That's what we're here forQuote:
Originally Posted by Churchill
But you are not up at 2:30 in the morning like starkvegasdawg :)Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
I am...I'm working at that time.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgoneyall
Ref, What's your take at this time ?
This is going to be a dangerous/volatile system. Take this threat seriously. If you wake up Sunday morning to bright sunny skies, we're going to have a bad time. Today, make sure your severe weather plan is known by everyone in your household. If you go to a community/public tornado shelter, go ahead and get some PPE for you and your family. If you're placed under a watch, keep your eyes open. Heed all warnings and take this seriously. If this setup ends up verifying like the models say, it's going to be a long system.Quote:
Originally Posted by Churchill
Now models are currently trying to decide if this will turn into a linear system or if cells will stay discrete. Those storm modes both bring different volatility standards. Just keep an eye out and listen to your local meteorologists and the National Weather Service. Don't worry about TOR:CON or any other weird index. Mainly, just act like we always have for severe weather days.
Thank you.
Thanks for posting some of the sites but what Radar sites do you follow? I watch the NWS velocity radar but it seems to me to be too general.
For radar, I'd get RadarScope for your phone. The best $9.99 you will spend. Then if you want to get fancy you can upgrade to tier 1 for $9.99/year.Quote:
Originally Posted by parabrave