Which you 2 never seem to do.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
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Which you 2 never seem to do.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
Oh yeah.. I started ignoring the ignorance for the better part.Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
Remember this is the same guy who said we were the 3rd best team in the SEC and would likely go 11-1 with a loss to aTm.
I'll take "hyperbole" for $200, AlexQuote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
For real. No way in hell fans should be expecting to beat LSU right now. I get that's auburn is vulnerable at times with a freshman QB, but so are we and they have a better defense. There's a reason they're a 7-point favorite.Quote:
Originally Posted by BogeyGolfer
I'll take missed tackles for $500, AlexQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
I?m not sure where I bet anything or guaranteed that. That?s on you for thinking my entry was anything more than entering a contest and going with a unique answer to cover the most finishes while being semi realistic (ie not picking 0-12). You must think people who guess 1 dollar on the price is right seriously think that the price is a dollar........Quote:
Originally Posted by Saltydog
Actually 11-point dogQuote:
Originally Posted by Political Hack
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/
They have Tommy Stevens questionable. Not saying that's unfair, but I wonder if the points would change if that were not the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Picking this team to go 11-1 was not "semi realistic". It was "STUPID". You even said State was the 3rd best team in the SEC. Hell, we aren't the 3rd best team in our own division.
Every reasonable pick from 7-5 to 10-2 would be taken. So I bet outside that range. My thought was 11-1 or better was more reasonable than 6-6 or worse. Does that explain it enough for you? I really can’t believe you’re holding onto this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Saltydog
It’s not like I’m the one in here pumping sunshine up everyone’s ass, I’m not. My points are that everyone else kinda sucks more than anyone here wants to say. So stop acting like I’m 007 who can’t see the deficiencies we have, I see them clear as day. I just A. think it’s stupid to attack a kid with a shit nickname who is putting himself on the line with an injury for this university and B. think that the product across the board in college football is down this year. I’m not arguing Moorhead up, I’m arguing Ogeron, Malzahn, and co. down.
11-1 more reasonable than 6-6? ok............................Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
When you come into the season with 6 gimmes and 2 more should wins, yes it is. I did the math based on my own percentages we’d win each game. Iirc it was about a 5 percent shot we went 11 wins or better while a one percent shot we went 6 wins or worse. 7 wins, 8 wins, 9 wins, 10 wins each had a higher percentage individually than the 0-6 and 11,12 combined iirc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
So based on mathematics and game theory, the best play in the contest for me was 11 wins. Alabama as the only loss was the most likely duplicate 11-1 so don’t pick them. Between LSU & aTm I went with the road game.
We've had so many 11 win seasons I can see why you said that. How long you been a State fan?
Do you read or just guess a way to belittle someone? Yea we?ve never won 11 games. Why do you think the math was at 5%. The whole shtick with our coach is he needs a QB that knows his system and we got one. What?s funny is, if you take the higher percent team in all my projections preseason we finish 8-4.... but yea i?m an idiot because I used math and game theory to give me the best shot at winning a contest and had fun with how I presented it sheesh.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Not a mathematician but did take 4 Cals and 2 DEs so I used to be ok with it. Not sure I've seen any math ever taught that gets us to 11 wins this season ***
Still wondering how long you been a State fan?
Since I was born and will be until I die cause they can’t take these degrees away from me. And it’s not calculus or de that gets you there bud. You only need a stats class.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
I can tell that stats class is working out for you.
ETA: I guess they must not have taught probability with that stats class.
Here's the good news for ya, since we already lost one of the 8, you only need to win all of the gimmes and the other probable, and run the table on the not likely ones and impossible, and you get to 11 ****Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
Or maybe you don’t understand probability? Sucks we live in the timeline where Tommy is hurt.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Only 6 gimmes. We lost one of the should wins and won the other. Gotta lose a gimme and every should lose for the 6 win now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
apparently they werent "gimmes"
Which is a HeLL of a lot more likely than winning the other 4. Or winning 3 of the other four. Or winning ... nevermind .... Just smdh.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
ETA. So you had KSU at home as a should, so ut ark and ole miss as gimmes? Wow. Before tee season huh.
So I guess you aren't mad that Joe didn't win 10-11 games last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
I would say without injuries and suspensions that we win those 6 "gimmes".Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
He understands probability and I'm sure the probability of us winning 11 was high ****Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
What he doesn't understand is football.
That's why I am mad about that. Last year was one of our extremely infrequent chances to do that IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions comingQuote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
We wont have another team as talented as last season for quite awhile.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
116... idk what to tell you man. You claim you understand stats but then shit all over me taking a flyer on what I had at 5%. Versus about 50-100 predictions I went with the selection that gave me +EV. If I went with strictly picking who I had as favorites I’d have been another person picking 8-4 with losses to LSU, A&M, Auburn, and Bama. Then it would have been literal price is right with Tommy’s yards. And if I get on game out of 12 wrong then I lose.
As a gambler which option are you taking?
No one could confirm Autry was one until KSU?? Um no. You might not have believed it, but it was told. I can assure you it was told.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
ETA as far as the "contest" it was a pick em. You don't get a thousand dollars for winning. Just say you look stupid for picking us to win games. You probability is off and you sound more absurd now than before.
That's my thought too and .. that sucks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Yes Homedawg and others were dead on right about autry. I was one of the ones that was wrong. Homedawgs one of the most dependable info guys on this boardQuote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Yeah well the info from Elitedawgs has been better than any other State site since it started 6 years ago. Hell, Rosebowl wouldnt even acknowledge the suspensions until August. News of Mullen leaving was broken before the Egg Bowl here. This is where you come to get the correct info.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
Was there a public list of how many and who?Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?
The answer to both =s NO
Probably not but without looking it up I can guarantee you this. The probability of us winning 11 games going into last season was MUCH higher than going into this season. I didn't have to do any math to know that either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
As for the public list, well one was given here. Again you chose not to believe multiple people. Injuries... we've had a few Parker for 2 games. Stevens for one. Backup center for one and Williams has been hobbled but hasn't missed a game. Gibson for 2. Guidry for one. While those are unfortunate, we were deep at OL, and none are out for the year and part of it. It happens. Not sure what you are looking for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
I agree with this and am not arguing. I had my list to find my best bets for win totals on the year for everyone. 11 this year was more likely than 6 at that time. As for the information about suspensions and ED being the place for MSU news, I don’t disagree with that; however, it’s hard to sift through conflicting posters that seem legit and discern what’s the truth. Especially when Autry played in the USM game. It’s hard to believe our coach used him on that game but here we are. Whether you think we needed him or not that game, the decision to use him and it be one of his four does make you feel sad for the season.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
We pretty much kept telling you who it was and that our DL problems were going to be hard to deal with. It's not our fault you dont listen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
Injuries happen- part of the game and you have to adjust. I lost my 2nd best OL guy for the year on the 2nd play of the season to the turf monster. It causes problems but you have to overcome them. You have no choice.
What kinda ground rules, assumptions, and initial values were you using. Those would have a lot to do with your results. I don't believe there is any authentic way the probability for 11 wins was greater than only 6 wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
11 was NEVER more likely than 6, injuries and suspensions be damned. Never!!