SBW severe weather threat.

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04-12-2019, 09:40 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

What do you think about the orange area? I know what the language says on the graph, but interested in your thoughts on how serious

The later it gets the less intense this should become. The orange area should be when it starts to transition from a tornado threat to more a wind threat. Basically, the further east you are the better, but nowhere is going to be 100% safe. I'm planning on being somewhere in north LA by noon tomorrow.
04-12-2019, 10:15 AM
Homedawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaintDawg

They may wanna consider moving the ballgame start time up to 1 pm or 2 pm. I know that'll conflict with the spring game but a 3 pm start would mean at least a 6 pm finish or later. Means a bunch of folks on the road driving home by the time it moves through.

Canceling the spring game is being discussed and moving up baseball. Or was as of last night. We shall see. Probably been determine by now.
04-12-2019, 10:54 AM
confucius say

Well they need to hurry up if they are going to change the schedule for tomorrow.
04-12-2019, 11:44 AM
timotheus

any updates yet?
04-12-2019, 11:51 AM
ScoobaDawg

Only change has been to move friday's game to 6 instead of 630.

https://hailstate.com/news/2019/4/11...s-alabama.aspx
04-12-2019, 12:02 PM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

The later it gets the less intense this should become. The orange area should be when it starts to transition from a tornado threat to more a wind threat. Basically, the further east you are the better, but nowhere is going to be 100% safe. I'm planning on being somewhere in north LA by noon tomorrow.

Thanks. Is there a set time the nws puts out updates? Just wondering when next one will be
04-12-2019, 12:23 PM
msudawg1200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Homedawg

Canceling the spring game is being discussed and moving up baseball. Or was as of last night. We shall see. Probably been determine by now.

i would rather them move the spring game to 11:00 if they move up baseball than cancel it.
04-12-2019, 12:44 PM
ScoobaDawg

Enhanced just moved east to include Starkville. The timeline for the storms reaching Campus still are between 8pm- 3am.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3-E4QZWkAALIuF.jpg
04-12-2019, 01:06 PM
Lord McBuckethead

agreed. move it up to 10 a.m.
04-12-2019, 01:07 PM
Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg

Enhanced just moved east to include Starkville. The timeline for the storms reaching Campus still are between 8pm- 3am.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3-E4QZWkAALIuF.jpg

Mfer I’m in the red and the delta sure as heck doesn’t need more water. Backwaters are finally trickling back.
04-12-2019, 01:15 PM
ScoobaDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead

agreed. move it up to 10 a.m.

No reason to...
04-12-2019, 01:23 PM
ScoobaDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Mfer I’m in the red and the delta sure as heck doesn’t need more water. Backwaters are finally trickling back.

Yea.. sadly.. you are going to get more. This is for the next 7 days. Hopefully no storm chasers try to go into that area.
https://i.ibb.co/cXMfb94/image.png
04-12-2019, 02:21 PM
ScoobaDawg

Don't like that hatched area.... really adding up to be a rough day in Louisiana and the Delta.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3-SVhkXsAAZMTA.png
04-12-2019, 02:38 PM
Lord McBuckethead

Other than give the baseball games more time without everyone being at the spring game.
04-12-2019, 02:50 PM
ScoobaDawg

For anyone asking when the next update will be

[tweet2]1116778287425118208[/tweet2]
04-12-2019, 03:39 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

Thanks. Is there a set time the nws puts out updates? Just wondering when next one will be

NWS typically updates their graphics early in the morning and then mid to late afternoon, but they can do to whenever the spirit moves them.
04-12-2019, 03:54 PM
Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Scooba and SVD, any similarities between conditions now and the storms that hit April 2010?
04-12-2019, 04:19 PM
yjnkdawg

This a free website (for any who may be interested) that gives the NAM HIRES Weather Forecast Model, with a loop or individual images. It also gives the projected times in CDT, etc. and not UTC or Z time.

https://www.myfutureradar.com/
04-12-2019, 04:35 PM
yjnkdawg

The NWS in Shreveport had a severe weather briefing, and a Q&A on their Facebook page at 12:30 today. The meteorologist said that SPC could possibly upgrade some of the moderate risk area to a high risk one, but he didn't think they were. Hopefully they won't do any upgrades, as the potential current severe weather scenario is bad enough now for parts of LA, ARK and MS.
04-12-2019, 05:04 PM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead

agreed. move it up to 10 a.m.

Wait ... I thought you young guys didn't like morning game start times. **
04-12-2019, 05:07 PM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

The NWS in Shreveport had a severe weather briefing, and a Q&A on their Facebook page at 12:30 today. The meteorologist said that SPC could possibly upgrade some of the moderate risk area to a high risk one, but he didn't think they were. Hopefully they won't do any upgrades, as the potential current severe weather scenario is bad enough now for parts of LA, ARK and MS.

I may be wrong but the last time I remember a High Risk day for northern Mississippi/Louisina/Alabama was April 30, 2011.
04-12-2019, 05:23 PM
msbulldog

I'm in the middle of the big old red area in W. Monroe.
04-12-2019, 07:30 PM
confucius say

If any updates, please post
04-12-2019, 10:31 PM
Dawg-gone-dawgs

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

If any updates, please post

You have access to the internet evidently. Updates are available and pretty easily accessible.
04-12-2019, 10:41 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by msbulldog

I'm in the middle of the big old red area in W. Monroe.

That's where I plan on staging tomorrow waiting for things to initiate.
04-12-2019, 11:44 PM
ScoobaDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg-gone-dawgs

You have access to the internet evidently. Updates are available and pretty easily accessible.

Please don't be that guy right now. Yes you can tell them to goto Twitter, their local TV station or other things but.. Some people come to here to read what is combined together and easy to read. I plan to be following the storms tomorrow from home (since slick doesn't wanna chase) and will see what the spc and others have to say in the morning. Gonna be a long day so I'm passing out before the next spc and models come out.
04-13-2019, 12:05 AM
ScoobaDawg

Last thing. Some very disturbing hrrr models coming out tonight for Louisiana and the state line. All those bright storms are severe and will be in an environment favorable to torandoes.

[tweet2]1116882967731818497[/tweet2]

[tweet2]1116922254124900352[/tweet2]
04-13-2019, 05:02 AM
starkvegasdawg

Moderate risk area has expanded and slightly shifted.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4Blk0wW...jpg&name=large
04-13-2019, 05:57 AM
msbulldog

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

That's where I plan on staging tomorrow waiting for things to initiate.

Woke up to storming, heavy rain.
04-13-2019, 06:04 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by msbulldog

Woke up to storming, heavy rain.

Same here. These are not the storms you have to worry about. They may have a little small hail but they won't be the ones producing tornadoes.
04-13-2019, 06:08 AM
msbulldog

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Same here. These are not the storms you have to worry about. They may have a little small hail but they won't be the ones producing tornadoes.

Thanks Vegas!
04-13-2019, 06:58 AM
MetEdDawg

New SPC update comes out around 8 this morning. Will be an interesting release to see what they think.
04-13-2019, 07:07 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

New SPC update comes out around 8 this morning. Will be an interesting release to see what they think.

Saw a tweet from one about an hour ago saying they were discussing high risk for the overnight update but decided against it as still too many potential failure modes, but then added it looks like a solid mid day with a chance to over perform. If they go high I'm betting not until the 11:30 update.
04-13-2019, 07:24 AM
SaintDawg

1 Attachment(s)

Attachment 3081
HRRR. High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Its a numerical weather prediction ran by NOAA every hour for 18 hour forecasts. This was one from late last night. NOAA folks and storm chasers said they don't recall ever seeing one like this in recent memory. Advised that all the forecast tracked cells seen are all capable of strong long track rotation. What say you weather dawgs?
04-13-2019, 07:34 AM
Cooterpoot

Woke up to basically an electrical storm. Really bad lightening.
04-13-2019, 07:36 AM
Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Scooba and SVD, any similarities between conditions now and the storms that hit April 2010?

Bump.
04-13-2019, 07:58 AM
MetEdDawg

If anyone wants to read the discussion from the SPC here's the link. New update is not quite out yet:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
04-13-2019, 08:00 AM
Bodawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Bump.

I believe you are talking about April 2011. Spc models then had a high risk for northeast Ms and all of the north half of Al. The models right now are showing moderate threats, which is still very concerning.
04-13-2019, 08:00 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Bump.

Tried to reply last night but Cspire has s tower crash.

There's always similarities between events but 2011 was a generational level event. This is more an annual high end event. Anybody trying to compare today to 2011 is trying to drum up fear for click bait. Will there be a lot of tornadoes today? More than likely. Will there be some violent long tracked ones? Very well could be. Will this be like 2011? Not a chance in hell.
04-13-2019, 08:06 AM
MetEdDawg

New update out. No high risk but still the moderate. Current thinking seems to remain the same.

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