Simmons and the Draft?

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12-16-2018, 11:33 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#c06905445814

Here is the nfl rookie slots for 2018 picks. Simmons might be able to sneak into the back half of the top 10 this year and probably won't improve his stock next year even with another great season (as deep as DL is this year, there are very few skill position guys on offense projected as 1st round picks too, so the draft is gonna be defensive heavy anyway, and Simmons is projected towards the top of the DL heap). So even if he's project at say the middle to back of the 1st round, he'd have to climb into the top 10 to really change the $$$ he's gonna get in any significant way. Then you figure if he has a good head and good advisors, he'll be investing a sizable chunk of that signing bonus, so he'll be gaining interest for a year. Then figure he'll hit free agency 1 year earlier and if he pans out like cox and jones have, he'll be looking at a ~$15+M/year deal at that point (maybe $20M+ with salary cap increases), so you take around $3-5M less spread out over the life of the rookie contract, but between interest gained on investing and an extra year of free agency, he would more than make up for coming out early even if he only projects as a mid-late 1st round pick. And then combine that with no guarantee to improve his stock and a reasonable projection that he could hurt it by becoming stale to NFL scouts even if he doesn't drop off in production significantly or maybe production dips without sweat splitting the OL's attention or a strong offensive skill position draft in 2020 after teams loaded up on early DL picks in 2019 pushes him down the board, and there's really not a financial reason to come back.

Now he could just want to comeback regardless of financial reasons, and that's his decision to make, but (assuming he maintains his 1st round grade and stays healthy) anyone that thinks he'd be financially better off coming back in hopes of improving his rookie contract is wrong.

The problem is for him I don't think he is necessarily a lock to even go in the first round because of his incident. CBS put out a mock draft two or three days ago that didn't even have Simmons mentioned in the first round at all.

Another good year + 4.0 GPA + degree in hand + another year away from his incident not to mention fewer DL/Edge/DE prospects makes him pretty much a lock for the top 10 next year. That would be potentially an extra 10-15 million dollars not to mention a free education. And none of these guys are going to invest anything to get interest- trust me. If someone gave me 10 million dollars at age 22 I doubt I would have invested any of it either. And while Rivers isn't Sweat- he is good enough to be very productive with a Simmons by him.
12-17-2018, 01:07 AM
TUSK

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

The problem is for him I don't think he is necessarily a lock to even go in the first round because of his incident. CBS put out a mock draft two or three days ago that didn't even have Simmons mentioned in the first round at all.

Another good year + 4.0 GPA + degree in hand + another year away from his incident not to mention fewer DL/Edge/DE prospects makes him pretty much a lock for the top 10 next year. That would be potentially an extra 10-15 million dollars not to mention a free education. And none of these guys are going to invest anything to get interest- trust me. If someone gave me 10 million dollars at age 22 I doubt I would have invested any of it either. And while Rivers isn't Sweat- he is good enough to be very productive with a Simmons by him.

I think Simmons is a 1st rounder regardless of his incident... The site I check out the most has him #5 overall and 4th DT in the Draft...

SEC Defense - 1st Round per Waltercamp (13 guys of 32).... Note: Clemson had 3...

#2 Williams, DT, UA
#3 Brown, DT, AU
#5 Simmons, DT, MSU
#8 Baker, CB, UGA
#9 White, LB, LSU
#12 Allen, DE/LB, KY
#13 Davis, DE/DT, UA
#15 Thompson, S, UA
#16 Williams, S, LSU
#21 Wilson, LB, UA
#22 Diggs, CB, UA
#23 Polite, DE/OLB, UF
#24 Sweat, DE/OLB, MSU
12-17-2018, 01:19 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by TUSK

I think Simmons is a 1st rounder regardless of his incident... The site I check out the most has him #5 overall and 4th DT in the Draft...

SEC Defense - 1st Round per Waltercamp (13 guys of 32).... Note: Clemson had 3...

#2 Williams, DT, UA
#3 Brown, DT, AU
#5 Simmons, DT, MSU
#8 Baker, CB, UGA
#9 White, LB, LSU
#12 Allen, DE/LB, KY
#13 Davis, DE/DT, UA
#15 Thompson, S, UA
#16 Williams, S, LSU
#21 Wilson, LB, UA
#22 Diggs, CB, UA
#23 Polite, DE/OLB, UF
#24 Sweat, DE/OLB, MSU

Even that website acknowledged that pick with "if teams are fine with his off the field issues" and given what just happened with Kareem Hunt I would say that it's more than likely that they won't be. Which is sad because without those issues I agree with them that he is a no brainer top five pick.
12-17-2018, 07:36 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Even that website acknowledged that pick with "if teams are fine with his off the field issues" and given what just happened with Kareem Hunt I would say that it's more than likely that they won't be. Which is sad because without those issues I agree with them that he is a no brainer top five pick.

Which is also why it would be smart for him to get his degree. With the atmosphere surrounding some of these issues he stands a strong chance of the incident being held against him. That may not change next year, but having that degree for back up could be really important for him.
12-17-2018, 08:21 AM
Cooterpoot

Anybody that doesn?t think Simmons is a 1st round pick is a fool. And after the combine, he?s very likely a top 10 lock. He?s not coming back. There?s no debate.
12-17-2018, 08:26 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Anybody that doesn?t think Simmons is a 1st round pick is a fool. And after the combine, he?s very likely a top 10 lock. He?s not coming back. There?s no debate.

I agree as long as it's a talent deal. Kareem hunt is a top 10 nfl RB with no job right now though. This is why I said he only comes back if the HS (high school, NFL gms!!!!) incident prevents him from going this season
12-17-2018, 08:34 AM
Cooterpoot

Hunt has nothing to do with Simmons. Simmons is project around top 10 already. He’s not falling past top 15. He’ll be the most impressive DT at the combine. Hunt would still have a job if he hadn’t lied about it all .
12-17-2018, 09:24 AM
Ifyouonlyknew

The comparison of Ray Rice, Joe Mixon, & Kareem Hunt is just lazy journalism. Anybody that's doing their homework, like NFL franchises, know this wasn't a domestic violence situation. Jeffrey made a bad choice but he was also fighting for a family member. He wasn't some angry boyfriend. That distinction is going to make a difference once he gets in the room with NFL GM's. He's likely a top 15 pick definitely won't fall past 20. He is & should go pro. He can come back the next couple of summers & finish his degree.
12-17-2018, 09:30 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

The comparison of Ray Rice, Joe Mixon, & Kareem Hunt is just lazy journalism. Anybody that's doing their homework, like NFL franchises, know this wasn't a domestic violence situation. Jeffrey made a bad choice but he was also fighting for a family member. He wasn't some angry boyfriend. That distinction is going to make a difference once he gets in the room with NFL GM's. He's likely a top 15 pick definitely won't fall past 20. He is & should go pro. He can come back the next couple of summers & finish his degree.

You're right, but this is a lazy society too. People likely won't dig deep enough to see how different it is. Some team picking 15-32 will hit the jackpot
12-17-2018, 10:23 AM
smootness

Simmons is a no-doubt 1st rounder.
12-17-2018, 11:30 AM
dawgs

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

The problem is for him I don't think he is necessarily a lock to even go in the first round because of his incident. CBS put out a mock draft two or three days ago that didn't even have Simmons mentioned in the first round at all.

Another good year + 4.0 GPA + degree in hand + another year away from his incident not to mention fewer DL/Edge/DE prospects makes him pretty much a lock for the top 10 next year. That would be potentially an extra 10-15 million dollars not to mention a free education. And none of these guys are going to invest anything to get interest- trust me. If someone gave me 10 million dollars at age 22 I doubt I would have invested any of it either. And while Rivers isn't Sweat- he is good enough to be very productive with a Simmons by him.

I've been seeing him listed top 10 in some recent projections and 1st round in pretty much everything that's come out in the last few weeks. If the HS incident is still following him around after 3 years of exemplary conduct off the field, then I can't imagine 4 years of exemplary conduct off the field making a significant difference. Ultimately, that'll be the kinda discussions he and his representatives will have with NFL GMs over the next few months to ascertain the impact it still has and whether it's gonna magically disappear between this year and next year. Personally, I don't think it's gonna hurt him once GMs have discussions with him and fully vet the incident. If it does hurt him, I can't imagine it wouldn't similarly hurt him in the 2020 draft (plus all the other potential pratfalls between 2019 and 2020), so might as well take the financial hit ASAP and get to that FA contract a year earlier.
12-17-2018, 11:39 AM
BoomBoom

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Hunt has nothing to do with Simmons. Simmons is project around top 10 already. He’s not falling past top 15. He’ll be the most impressive DT at the combine. Hunt would still have a job if he hadn’t lied about it all .

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.
12-17-2018, 11:45 AM
dawgs

If all the draftniks who are constantly in touch with scouts and front offices aren't already dropping Simmons out of the 1st round on their projections because of the HS incident, I can't imagine that it's gonna suddenly make a huge difference. Someone might get him slightly lower than he should go, but he ain't dropping a round or 2 because of it. These folks are already aware of it and still have him in the first round. Once he goes through the interview process and works out, assuming he does well, his stock isn't gonna go drop. Obviously if he blows his combine or comes across like a shit in his interviews, he'll drop, but it'll be because he didn't handle himself well in the process, but assuming he does well, he's not dropping imo.
12-17-2018, 11:49 AM
Jack Lambert

I have not read all the posts but Bama, A&M, Clemson have them come back all the time. Really the difference between number 32 and number 2 is big in money. These schools pays the insurance premiums for the student if they come back and play. If one more year in college will get you 20 million more money and the school is paying the premiums for your insurance why not unless you family is in need of money.
12-17-2018, 11:52 AM
smootness

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoomBoom

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.

He will be a 1st round pick, no question.
12-17-2018, 11:56 AM
dawgs

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack Lambert

I have not read all the posts but Bama, A&M, Clemson have them come back all the time. Really the difference between number 32 and number 2 is big in money. These schools pays the insurance premiums for the student if they come back and play. If one more year in college will get you 20 million more money and the school is paying the premiums for your insurance why not unless you family is in need of money.

Only way it's a $20M difference if to go from the back of the 1st round to a top 3 pick. Or from outside the first round to a top 5-10 pick. That's a pretty big gamble considering there's essentially no offensive skill players competing for top spots in the draft this year, which won't be the case next year.
12-17-2018, 12:02 PM
dawgs

And even though that $20M difference has a very slim chance of happening, assuming it did play out that way, you gotta also figure that if Simmons hits free agency a year earlier, he makes up that $20M up in that 1 extra FA season after the rookie deal if he performs like cox and jones have in the NFL. So hypothetically speaking, he gambles he can jump into the very top of the draft between 2019 and 2020 while not getting paid, or he goes ahead and starts getting paid (even if it's back of the 1st round or 2nd round money) and gambles he starts wrecking shit so he signs his $100M deal a year sooner on the back end. Gamble either way, but if he went in 2019, he'd at least have some guaranteed $$, whereas there's plenty of realistic scenarios where his draft stock drops in 2020, thus hurting his rookie deal AND pushes his free agency back a season.
12-17-2018, 12:23 PM
Jack Lambert

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgs

Only way it's a $20M difference if to go from the back of the 1st round to a top 3 pick. Or from outside the first round to a top 5-10 pick. That's a pretty big gamble considering there's essentially no offensive skill players competing for top spots in the draft this year, which won't be the case next year.

I was just making an example. I don't know how the money works.
12-17-2018, 01:10 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

You're right, but this is a lazy society too. People likely won't dig deep enough to see how different it is. Some team picking 15-32 will hit the jackpot

I understand Kareem Hunt lied but the actual fight was very tame. Chick slapped him and called him the N word. He pushed a guy who fell into her. He then barely kicked her to the point that I doubt she was even bruised. Chick got a lot less than she deserved but Hunt paid a huge price.
12-17-2018, 01:12 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgs

And even though that $20M difference has a very slim chance of happening, assuming it did play out that way, you gotta also figure that if Simmons hits free agency a year earlier, he makes up that $20M up in that 1 extra FA season after the rookie deal if he performs like cox and jones have in the NFL. So hypothetically speaking, he gambles he can jump into the very top of the draft between 2019 and 2020 while not getting paid, or he goes ahead and starts getting paid (even if it's back of the 1st round or 2nd round money) and gambles he starts wrecking shit so he signs his $100M deal a year sooner on the back end. Gamble either way, but if he went in 2019, he'd at least have some guaranteed $$, whereas there's plenty of realistic scenarios where his draft stock drops in 2020, thus hurting his rookie deal AND pushes his free agency back a season.

Oddly enough, Jones was a 2nd round pick but it puts him 1 year closer to his FA deal because only 1st rounders get 5th year options.
12-17-2018, 01:14 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoomBoom

That's how it should be, not how it is. Unfortunately, that incident will count against him should anything similar.ever come.up. it's like starting a game with a unsportsman like conduct, one more.and you're gone. And GMs are wary of using a 1st round pick that's one bad moment away from being gone. There's also the potential heavy PR hit that may come when fans hear this for the first time, without knowing the circumstances, on draft night. For.some teams the upside will be worth it, for.others it won't. The latter may be enough to drop him to the 2nd round.

Belichek doesn't care what fans think. If Simmons is there then the Patriots will draft him because he is a top 5 talent.
12-17-2018, 01:23 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Belichek doesn't care what fans think. If Simmons is there then the Patriots will draft him because he is a top 5 talent.

Patriots are exactly the type of team that will luck into Simmons
12-17-2018, 02:14 PM
dawgs

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Oddly enough, Jones was a 2nd round pick but it puts him 1 year closer to his FA deal because only 1st rounders get 5th year options.

Yep. The 5th year options are still big paydays too, but don't offer the long term certainty of a FA deal. How certain that FA deal is depends on negotiations of course, but cox got $63M guaranteed with his deal.
12-17-2018, 02:18 PM
Scared_Hitless

I am almost assured that if Simmons goes pro and teams pass due to the issue in HS, then teams like the Seahawks, Patriots, or Dallas are more than willing to take the PR hit for a Top 5 talent. Which he is
12-17-2018, 04:51 PM
Political Hack

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2018/04/27/2018-nfl-draft-1st-round-rookie-salary-projections-what-mayfield-barkley-and-darnold-will-make/#c06905445814

Here is the nfl rookie slots for 2018 picks. Simmons might be able to sneak into the back half of the top 10 this year and probably won't improve his stock next year even with another great season (as deep as DL is this year, there are very few skill position guys on offense projected as 1st round picks too, so the draft is gonna be defensive heavy anyway, and Simmons is projected towards the top of the DL heap). So even if he's project at say the middle to back of the 1st round, he'd have to climb into the top 10 to really change the $$$ he's gonna get in any significant way. Then you figure if he has a good head and good advisors, he'll be investing a sizable chunk of that signing bonus, so he'll be gaining interest for a year. Then figure he'll hit free agency 1 year earlier and if he pans out like cox and jones have, he'll be looking at a ~$15+M/year deal at that point (maybe $20M+ with salary cap increases), so you take around $3-5M less spread out over the life of the rookie contract, but between interest gained on investing and an extra year of free agency, he would more than make up for coming out early even if he only projects as a mid-late 1st round pick. And then combine that with no guarantee to improve his stock and a reasonable projection that he could hurt it by becoming stale to NFL scouts even if he doesn't drop off in production significantly or maybe production dips without sweat splitting the OL's attention or a strong offensive skill position draft in 2020 after teams loaded up on early DL picks in 2019 pushes him down the board, and there's really not a financial reason to come back.

Now he could just want to comeback regardless of financial reasons, and that's his decision to make, but (assuming he maintains his 1st round grade and stays healthy) anyone that thinks he'd be financially better off coming back in hopes of improving his rookie contract is wrong.

Getting out of the rookie contract faster is a strong incentive, but most agents will tell you that you can't count on that. Your goal is 100% consumed with your first contract. It's the only thing that's close to "guaranteed." Anything after that is gravy. On the flip side, insurance policy would help mitigate the loss of income if he were to have a setback, so there's financial risks in staying there too.

However, if he's projected 20th or later due to the depth of DT spot this year, he could come back and make a lot more money out the gate next year, including big endorsement deals.
12-17-2018, 04:55 PM
Ifyouonlyknew

Go Jeffrey!! Don't look back! You've given us 3 amazing seasons. Go be great & take care of your family.
12-17-2018, 04:57 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

Go Jeffrey!! Don't look back! You've given us 3 amazing seasons. Go be great & take care of your family.

He will. It'd be foolish to not
12-18-2018, 07:13 AM
msbulldog

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgs

If all the draftniks who are constantly in touch with scouts and front offices aren't already dropping Simmons out of the 1st round on their projections because of the HS incident, I can't imagine that it's gonna suddenly make a huge difference. Someone might get him slightly lower than he should go, but he ain't dropping a round or 2 because of it. These folks are already aware of it and still have him in the first round. Once he goes through the interview process and works out, assuming he does well, his stock isn't gonna go drop. Obviously if he blows his combine or comes across like a shit in his interviews, he'll drop, but it'll be because he didn't handle himself well in the process, but assuming he does well, he's not dropping imo.

Look, if Tunsil can do a gas mask bong on world wide TV on draft night and not drop any further than what he did, Jeffery ain't got nothing to worry about.

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