Mangum isn't in the same situation as Gridley either. Like Rooker last season, he will still have another year of leverage if he doesn't go this year.
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The thing that a lot of people need to understand is in baseball nowadays it?s pretty rare to get ?life changing? money in the draft anymore unless you are Stephen Strasburg or someone like that in terms of a bonus. Even if you are a college junior you?re likely to be getting something in the thousands of dollars range. To make the life changing money you need to make it to MLB, play in MLB and get to year six and get a big contract after you?ve been through arbitration before that. I think Kruger got 410K as a bonus and that?s probably the high end.
The benefit to coming back to college is because of their age and experience some of those players can shoot through a system- like Graveman did. Girodo wasn?t drafted until his senior year so he had no choice. Graveman also got an engineering degree from MSU I believe and had baseball not worked out for him he could have almost immediately transitioned back into the public sector without having to spend a year going to school to get his degree. The Marlins drafted Graveman in the 36th round also- he probably wasn?t going to get much more than what he ended up getting.
Basically, Kendall Graveman spent his minor league career at MSU, got a degree, and came close to winning a National Championship with us and then shot up to the Big Leagues. I doubt he has any regrets about the few thousand dollars he left on the table.
So, IMO you?re probably better off in most cases if you are in the round 12 and beyond range of going back to school, getting better to give yourself a chance to get to MLB more quickly, getting your degree, and also helping your college win a championship.
I?m not sure how Cann will handle the scholarships but if that was why we were losing so many Kruger?s and Zac Houston?s I?m confident that he will fix that especially having been at LSU where they are the masters of getting guys to come back for their senior year.
I guess it depends on what you define as life changing money. If you told me I could have 410k and start slogging through the minors or wait a year, have fun playing another year of college ball, get drafted 5 rounds higher, and make 120k, I would be mighty tempted to take the money. School can wait, and if I'm not mistaking, it would be on the MLB's dime if I decided to go back after baseball. Not everyone is like Graveman and makes a jump from the 36th round to the 8th round in one year. And you're much more likely to get cut than make the big leagues.
I think all our back and forth is proving is that it's a pretty personal decision. I'll be thrilled if he stays, and wish him best of luck if he goes.
I hope Cann can figure out scholarship issues, the problem is he'll have to hit loopholes to get it done here, whereas at LSU it was built in with the TOPS program. I do think Cann has the personality of a coach that players WANT to play for that Cohen never quite had (evident by that article about some of the LSU guys crying when he announced he was coming here). So hopefully that'll count for something.
As an aside, I think I've seen where Louisiana might be doing away with TOPS in the near future. It'll be interesting to see how that affects their program, if at all
I would be shocked if Gridley and mangum went pro.
Robertson is from Texas so TOPS had no effect on him.
If we took away the junior's scholarship money before they even decided then that is one big dumb dumb move Cohen did. Sounds like we didn't even try to talk them into coming back. Will be interesting to see how Cann fairs. Personally, I think he will have a much better success rate then Cohen did on getting players on campus and keeping them on campus.
TOPS is actually probably going to decline if not be phased out in the coming years in Louisiana. If I'm not mistaken, it already has gone through some cuts.
We do similar things as LSU but of course it's a little bit different because we don't have TOPS in Mississippi. We use academic scholarships, grants, and things like that to make up for the windfall. Some of those academic monies don't change while you are in school as long as the student maintains the requirements to keep the scholarship. Actually if I remember correctly some of mine actually increased when I became a junior.
This TOPS thing is an issue because Ron Polk bitched about it and how unfair it was and didn't do anything about it like Cohen and Cann did, have, and will and our fans have kind of latched on to it and use it as an excuse and claim it as a disadvantage.
I'm very glad that we have a coach from LSU because I'm pretty sure Cann in addition to his scouting insight and how things work on that end also knows how LSU convinces players to come back for their senior year. And apparently he was one of the major reasons those players came back to school.
To me 3-4 million is life changing money. I can tell you from family experience most MLB players don't do logical things like start 401K's. Usually they go out and buy a sports car and a big house. They also have to live off of their bonus the entire time they are in the minors so if you're Jack Kruger and you spend 7-8 years in the minors that 410K goes pretty quick. Stats show that if you go to college to play baseball first your odds of making it to MLB increase a good bit.
Sometimes MLB will pay for school- but what they don't tell you is there's a chance your 410K bonus is going to be exhausted by then and your wife/family are going to be stressed while your going to school and basically taking on debt for a year.
The way I see it- if you are a college junior you're probably best off leaving after your junior year if you are drafted in rounds 1-12. I don't expect us to retain very many players drafted in those rounds- unless it's a situation where someone like say for example Rooker gets drafted in the second round and he thinks he can get in the first round by coming back which is probably going to happen about 5% of the time. I don't expect Cann to keep most of those guys.
Rounds 12-20 is kind of a crapshoot. Those are kind of the critical ones because they're usually pretty good players but not elite most of the time. They're the ones that can kind of set you up for a championship run. These are the players where I think Cann can possibly really help us out a lot more than in the past.
Rounds 21-40 you should probably go back to school. We should be able to keep around 90% of these players.
I'm not sure why Cohen couldn't retain more guys than he did. He obviously was able to get a few back like Graveman- that could have been because of Butch. It may have been in part because of the assistants we had- after all the LSU players came back because of Cann and not Manieri. I don't think Mingione was that great of a hitting coach and while he was a nice guy and good recruiter, I don't think he's the kind of guy that can elevate most guys to MLB and certainly not anything like Cann. It will be interesting to see but I think he probably is going to be about average at Kentucky with a bunch of JUCO's once Henderson's team leaves/graduates. A lot of our pitchers probably figured that Wes wasn't coming back and didn't want to go through pitching coach number three.
For what it's worth, I'm still not sure he was the ideal 3-hole guy (but I totally understand what Cann was thinking). Hindsight shows a pretty big sophomore slump for Mangum although he had a decent year. Gridley would have been better leading off all year as he had a much stronger season than Mangum. Would have rather had him leading off sooner to provide more RBI opportunities for Rooker since Mangum wasn't getting on as much. Could still hit Mangum after Rooker to protect him in the lineup.
I actually went back and checked the final stats and the gap was not as big between Grid and Mangum as I originally thought. A week or two ago, Jake was just barely around .300 with Gridley around .330 or .340 and way better power numbers (which is what I was thinking may have been where they ended up). They are now basically even in avg / OBP, but Gridley has the better power numbers. So they ended up a lot more interchangeable than I expected originally. Of course, if we had a 4th viable hitter we could have put Rooker where he belongs in the 3-hole, with Gridley or Mangum behind him, the other leading off, and the 4th guy batting in the 2-hole. Never could quite get enough production from Brown or Stovall to justify hitting either of them that high in the order though.
The signing bonus is fool's gold unless it's something like $750k or higher. Depending on Kruger's home and family situation, he probably benefitted more by coming back and having a great season this year and getting drafted in the top 10 rounds with a better trajectory to getting to the league. Getting to the MLB obviously is where you really make life changing money.
Not to take away from any of the great points in this thread....but to a college guy making $0.00, a $410,000 signing bonus is life changing money. Hell, that's life changing money to me too. You can pay off a mortgage and student loans (if you have any), and start whatever career you choose debt free in life and have a little nest egg. Is it the type of money where you can go ahead and retire, no...but I think we can all agree that having $400k in the bank would have been pretty great when heading off to work for the first time.
That being said, I bet there are so many guys that leave college thinking $400-$500k is so much money, only to be sitting there without any of it 4-5 years down the road and wishing they had played that extra year. For guys that actually project to MLB, they absolutely benefit by turning down the money and coming back if they're not top 10-12 rounds....but I totally understand guys like Kruger or others that may not project as sure fire big leaguers taking that pay day while they have a chance, bc they know within a few years of sitting in the minors they'll probably be working in the real world after that.
So where I think Andy helps us most, is recruiting more guys that project as MLB guys, which in turn will make a decision like that easier. They will be highly thought of out of HS instead of projects or Jucos, and they'll be on a perennial winner getting lots of pub, playing for a coach with scouting connections to tell them exactly what they should do, which combined is what leads to more guys staying in my opinion. But with AC, another big key will be having a stud to step in behind them if they do go ahead and leave because they're high draft picks. Andy will help bring all of those factors into play in my opinion.
Agreed Todd. Cann's reputation for developing hitters and his scouting connections will help us out tremendously in judging who we can get and keep on campus. Helping develop players like Bregman and Rooker will only help our cause. Bregman credits Cann with his hitting development.
If you really want to take a pragmatic and critical approach to it, it's really only $220k after taxes take a huge chunk, but I digress. If we were taking scholarships away from juniors before they had even decided as was stated earlier in this thread, no wonder we didn't keep many.
That is also about 4 years worth of normal salary in the bank while you go after your dream of playing baseball. If Kruger was good about school then he might can even finish online or at least get close. It would be hard to pass up that amount of money because coming back probably gets you at most $10k signing bonus as a Senior.
I'm a little confused. Are you arguing that we have a better chance of getting the guys with MLB futures, who were highly thought of coming out of HS, to stay for their senior years? I would argue that is incredibly unlikely.
Guys not drafted in the top 10-12 rounds, especially out of college, have a very low chance of making the majors, so they are pretty much always right to take the money if they get an offer close to what Kruger got last year. Once you drop into the $100,000 or less range, you start to have a tougher decision.
When Cann brings his recruits in I think we A) get more players here then we had before, B) get the most out of those players for three years instead of one year, and C) can talk some of the tweener juniors into coming back for their senior season if it means winning a championship. I think Cann can and will do that here. This will make us more consistent and will get us to Omaha more and in fact win a championship. I think Cohen failed at those basic things and why he stated that Cann is his upgrade because he will do those things.