This was latest from NHC. Granted it was at only 2mph.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
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This was latest from NHC. Granted it was at only 2mph.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Oh I know. I wasn't saying that what you said was wrong. Just saying that if you were thinking about trusting the ECMWF, don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
The way these models have missed so much on this storm I'm not even looking at them any more.
Hurricane Matthew got stronger. Now 150 MPH winds at the surface and he has made the turn towards the North. Gitmo being evacuated of all non-essential personnel.
https://i.gyazo.com/92a30627d0241242...1747ebacbd.png
Wonder what they'll do with the terrorists? Are they essential?Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Solitary confinement for EVERYBODYYYYYYYQuote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
I say lock em all in the rec yard cages.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
Nah use it as an interrogation technique.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
"If you don't tell us where the leaders are, we are putting you out in the Hurricane"
Models are trending Matthew further and further West, which makes a US landfall much more likely. Could spell danger for Florida/Georgia if models end up verifying
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The Three Tides for themQuote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
You will want to watch this very closely. Current forecast track would be a glancing blow at best on Ft. Lauderdale Thursday, but one of the model ensembles is showing a growing mthreat for FL. This storm has had a mind of its own from the outset.Quote:
Originally Posted by spbdawg
Still holding steady with 140mph. One change is models are still trending track further west. Bahamas look to take a direct hit and eastern FL needs to be especially alert.
Gonna be a beast regardless when it makes landfall. The only thing keeping Matthew from getting even stronger is the blob connected to the East side of the storm
https://i.gyazo.com/347f634df8ba90c4...884c76f3c8.png
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/marsh....jpg?width=960
Looks like the blob is disappearing.
Things change but look at NC. Damn I'm hoping for a miss!
Hispanola will hate the Blob.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
NOOO!!! Now I'm inside the cone of death. Guess football Friday night will be a little wet.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRef
Cone of probability. Also, they are not forecasting Matthew to be stronger than a Cat 2 at landfall.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
Latest advisory has Matthew strengthening. Pressure down to 934mb and winds up to 145mph.
Thanks for the info guys, this is better than the weather channel, except for the good looking women.
Let it never be said we don't deliver everything.Quote:
Originally Posted by msbulldog
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...bdf9f54807.jpg
Latest info still has Matthew at 145mph and getting ready to destroy all of TSUN's mission work. Consensus is still growing of a possible FL hit or close brush.
GFS:
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...mslp.us_se.png
Euro:
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...mslp.conus.png
Canadian:
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps...mslp.us_se.png
Keep in mind these are one run of these models. Don't take those as gospel. The thing to watch, especially with tropical systems, are trends. And these have all been trending closer and closer to FL. Right now if I lived anywhere from Miami up to North Carolina Outer Banks I would be preparing for a direct hit just in case.
One thing of note is the strength difference of the models. The GFS and Canadian both have this system a low to moderate category one in these pictures. The Euro still has it a major category three which is winds of at least 111mph.
Thank you and please keep the updates coming.
Lookout ,Miami, her come more Haitians.....Certain public buildings are used but never seen a dedicated shelter,per se...Would be absolutely "too costly" in terms of public monies...With modern media folks can evacuate, unless you live in New Orleans I guess, to safer parts...Lived in Florida almost 18 years in Miami and Central Fl. was never a direct hit....Came close a couple of times; gusts to 60 or so...I had no real fear of them until the 80's in Houston..The edge of one brushed us with 70-80 MPH winds..I said right then evacuation was the right move if sustained winds were predicted to be above 70...Shaking house ,trees breaking, will give one pause... I love watching those few cerebrally challenged individuals on the tube before landfall of a big blow," I been here x number of years; ain't never left, ain't gonna this time.." Headlines, Body of TV testimonial guy found floating in Biloxi River....Riding out a hurricane is about as predictable as flying into a large thunderstorm; when in doubt, get out...
Dang it says I must spread some before I can rep Vegas, but thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34
Looks like we need to batten down the hatches shrimpQuote:
Originally Posted by shrimp
I'd say so. The cone moves a little more to the West with every advisory. Parts of our community were without power for several days after Hermine last month. This could be a lot worse. Stay safe.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
Latest Tropical forecast tracks:
Hurricane Matthew:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...36W5_NL_sm.gif
Tropical Storm Nichole:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...59W5_NL_sm.gif
New area of interest:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png
Latest Euro now has Matthew making landfall near Melbourne, FL, early Friday morning right on the threshold of a Cat. 2/3 intensity. It then takes up the FL coast before exiting back out to sea off the coast of GA.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...mslp.conus.png
We lost it for about 10 hours, but there were some places locally without it for days. I lost a small dogwood in my front yard, then lost a huge live oak limb two weeks ago with TS Julia. Things aren't starting out good for us on this one - been raining a lot since 1:00 yesterday, well over 4 inches. The ground will be saturated and all the retention areas and drainage ditches will be full before we ever start seeing rain from Matthew. We are watching closely right now to see if we will need to bug out. Y'all stay safe in the SAV too.Quote:
Originally Posted by shrimp
Here is the Euro forecast for Saturday morning as it has it exiting GA.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps...mslp.conus.png
FWIW, here is the information I got on the latest:
Current Location: 19.7N / 74.5W
Geographic Reference: 30 miles south of the eastern tip of Cuba
Movement: North at 9 mph
Max Sustained Winds: 140 mph gusting to 160 mph
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 195 miles
Peak Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 280 miles (while extratropical)
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 29 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 16 intensity)
Peak Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 31 out of a possible 50 points (14 size, 17 intensity)
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. We are indicating a faster forward speed and a more rapid transition to an extratropical storm after the storm passes North Carolina.
2. Matthew will be a strong Category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday.
3. Matthew may be a Category 3 hurricane when the center nears the coast of North Carolina early Saturday afternoon.
Our Forecast
We have made only minor adjustments in the track prior to the center reaching North Carolina. However, we are now indicating a significantly faster forward speed and a more rapid transition to an extratropical storm once the center moves east of North Carolina on Sunday. The long-range part of the track is much more uncertain than the first four days of the track. However, it remains possible that the center of Matthew may get very close to the east coast of Florida on Thursday and Friday.
Matthew should make its closest approach to the Florida Peninsula on Friday morning when it passes east of Cape Canaveral. There remains some uncertainty as to the timing of the expected northeasterly turn as the center is approaching the coast of Georgia late Friday afternoon. We think that this turn will occur offshore, keeping the center over water until it nears the coast of North Carolina early Saturday afternoon. It is too early to tell if the center will move inland over North Carolina or whether it will pass just offshore. Our forecast takes the center right along the coast of North Carolina Saturday afternoon/evening.
Although Matthew appeared to weaken somewhat as the center crossed over Haiti, its eye has cleared out and it may be experiencing some slight strengthening prior to impacting eastern Cuba in a few hours. We are indicating a steady intensity in this forecast until the center passes Cuba tonight. Once in the Bahamas, Matthew's winds are forecast to increase back to around 145 mph, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane as it tracks northwestward through the Baham tomorrow and Thursday. Some slight weakening is expected as the center parallels the Florida coast on Friday, with additional weakening as the center approaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. However, Matthew may remain a strong Category 2 hurricane or a low-end Category 3 hurricane when it reaches the coast of North Carolina.
Assuming that Matthew reaches the coast of North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane on Saturday afternoon, it will be capable of producing a storm surge in the 9-11 foot range.
Expected Impacts on Land
Haiti: Heavy rain will continue in the Port-au-Prince area into this evening, resulting in widespread flooding.
Bahamas: Severe to catastrophic damage is expected. Severe damage is also likely to occur to the power grid. Power outages may last for weeks or longer.
Southeast Florida: Widespread power outages are likely in coastal areas on Thursday and Friday. Minor damage is possible.
Northeast Florida & Georgia Coasts: Scattered power outages are likely on Friday. Heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding.
South Carolina: Widespread power outages are likely in coastal areas along with minor structural damage. Heavy rainfall could cause significant flooding along the coast. Tides 4-6 feet above normal on Saturday may cause some damage along the coast.
North Carolina: Widespread power outages, as well as minor to moderate damage, are likely along the coast. Heavy rainfall could cause widespread flooding throughout eastern North Carolina. Storm surge flooding would likely inundate coastal areas.
The next advisory will be issued at 10PM EDT/AST.
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I hope they move it to lsu, lsu thrashes them, and everyone blames SS.... really don't care if they blame SS or not, but I'm certainly not pulling for him or sympathetic in any wayQuote:
Originally Posted by spbdawg
I reserved a hotel room over in Dublin this morning just in case. I'm near the coast and we might have a mandatory evacuation. Some of the schools here are already announcing closures, starting tomorrow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
When would be the deadline to move a major college football game? I would think they would have to decide by Thursday morning for it to be in any way possible. It looks like Gainesville is going to be affected but no one is sure to what extent yet. I don't see how they can move the SC game to Athens with there still being uncertainty to how Athens will be affected. FSU plays at Miami Saturday night.
I know football is not the most important thing in relation to this storm but there are some AD's with some interesting decisions in the next couple of days, especially if Matthew turns any more to the west.
Matthew will be long gone in Miami Saturday. Projection says eye will be around NC Saturday afternoon. Hey, no expert but I stay at a lot of Holiday Inn Express hotels.Quote:
Originally Posted by LC Dawg
These dirty coon asses down here are tripping over themselves with glee to host another one of these disaster games, screw em. The SEC should make them play in Hattiesburg or Jackson to help even the playing field.
Landfall in Haiti
http://i1213.photobucket.com/albums/...psnwheq4xc.jpg