Football expectations

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Originally Posted by smootness

Obviously us beating them does not then determine alone that they are overrated. But we know enough about this team and its talent level, and the possibility that already exists that ASU is ranked too high, that if we beat them that seems fairly likely to be true.

But regardless, again my issue was in the logic. IF they do not end up being as good as the #12 team and we also beat them, it still says absolutely nothing about any other team on our schedule and how good they may or may not be.

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Why do we definitively know more about teams ranked lower than them that we DO know that if ASU loses to us then those teams are better? Especially when they aren't considered better right now.

Mizz - lost QB
OM - insane amount of talent lost
UF - QB secret injury + coach on the hot seat and could be on the outs by the time we play them
Ark - lame duck coach
Aggy - Aggy
Tenn - new QB and roster turnover enough that they're fringe top 25

All these other guys have serious questions about them. If we beat ASU tomorrow - which of these teams is still "out of play" for you?

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Originally Posted by Tater

Why do we definitively know more about teams ranked lower than them that we DO know that if ASU loses to us then those teams are better? Especially when they aren't considered better right now.

Mizz - lost QB
OM - insane amount of talent lost
UF - QB secret injury + coach on the hot seat and could be on the outs by the time we play them
Ark - lame duck coach
Aggy - Aggy
Tenn - new QB and roster turnover enough that they're fringe top 25

All these other guys have serious questions about them. If we beat ASU tomorrow - which of these teams is still "out of play" for you?

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We do not know more about them. My point is almost that exactly. Beating ASU would not mean they are overrated. But knowing what we know about us, there is at least a decent chance it would mean that.

I will simply say this - almost every team you listed absolutely thinks they will beat us easily. Does not mean they will, but we have no reason at this point to believe we will be super competitive in a lot of those games. Beating ASU may mean we have a better chance, or it may not. And there is a sizeable gap between us and most of those teams. So even if we close that gap, it likely will not be enough in most of those games. We were terrible last year.

NC or bust.

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Originally Posted by smootness

We do not know more about them. My point is almost that exactly. Beating ASU would not mean they are overrated. But knowing what we know about us, there is at least a decent chance it would mean that.

I will simply say this - almost every team you listed absolutely thinks they will beat us easily. Does not mean they will, but we have no reason at this point to believe we will be super competitive in a lot of those games. Beating ASU may mean we have a better chance, or it may not. And there is a sizeable gap between us and most of those teams. So even if we close that gap, it likely will not be enough in most of those games. We were terrible last year.

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So none of the games are off the table? So there's a chance at all 10 games not vs. tu / UGA? It's unlikely but the range is 3-10 and a loss to ASU knocks the range to 3-6 while a win inspires confidence and makes the range 6-10 where 4 or 5 wins would take a collapse.

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Originally Posted by Tater

So none of the games are off the table? So there's a chance at all 10 games not vs. tu / UGA? It's unlikely but the range is 3-10 and a loss to ASU knocks the range to 3-6 while a win inspires confidence and makes the range 6-10 where 4 or 5 wins would take a collapse.

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Saying you technically have a chance in a certain number of games is not the same as saying you could win them all. Yes, mathematically, there may officially be an infinitesimally small chance. But in reality, the chance of beating every team against whom you are a solid underdog is never going to happen.

Our absolute, pie in the sky, ceiling is likely 7-8 games. And that is extremely unlikely.

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Originally Posted by Dawgface

NC or bust.

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That's it!!!!

IF, a big IF, we beat AZ State tonight 6-6 floor and 7-5 if all cards possible fall our way. Lose tonight 3-9, 0-8 again. Then time to end our decades old experiment expecting different results year after year (except Tyler and Mullen) and stop hiring OTJ training Assistant Coaches to be our HC. Get off the pocket book like we did in baseball and $ign an established, known, winning HC from some college level and show we are serious about winning football.

10 wins in play. BT and Evans can burn anybody in the country.

I'll go one further. Texsa is in play. Arch doesn't move me. 11 winnable games.

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Originally Posted by Tater

I'll go one further. Texsa is in play. Arch doesn't move me. 11 winnable games.

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I love you!

I think we can be 6-5 going into Ole Miss

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Originally Posted by Maverick91

I love you!

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And i love you too, random citizen!

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Originally Posted by DEDawg

I think we can be 6-5 going into Ole Miss

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Florida looks very winnable. High chance our game vs. them is Sun Belt Billy's last. They could be 1-5 by the time we go to the swamp. I'm excited that I picked that as my road game for the year.

Didn't learn anything about Tenn. Ark might put up fight. OM looked worse and Simmons banged up. Arch is mid narrative is starting to spread - even his TD throws were unimpressive yesterday. Aggy struggled.

Mizzou might be good. Backup QB didn't slow them down.

I'm amending it to say 6-11 is our range. Georgia did look sloppy too but it's too much jimmies and joes there.

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Originally Posted by Tater

Florida looks very winnable. High chance our game vs. them is Sun Belt Billy's last. They could be 1-5 by the time we go to the swamp. I'm excited that I picked that as my road game for the year.

Didn't learn anything about Tenn. Ark might put up fight. OM looked worse and Simmons banged up. Arch is mid narrative is starting to spread - even his TD throws were unimpressive yesterday. Aggy struggled.

Mizzou might be good. Backup QB didn't slow them down.

I'm amending it to say 6-11 is our range. Georgia did look sloppy too but it's too much jimmies and joes there.

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Too soon to know in much of anything. But my early guess on Tennessee is they appear strong on offense and weaker on defense.

I actually feel worse about that game but feel better about Florida.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Too soon to know in much of anything. But my early guess on Tennessee is they appear strong on offense and weaker on defense.

I actually feel worse about that game but feel better about Florida.

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If Tenn beats UGA then they are the fav to win the SEC. Sorry Tigah fans but even though your d is tremendous your offense stinks.

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Originally Posted by parabrave

If Tenn beats UGA then they are the fav to win the SEC. Sorry Tigah fans but even though your d is tremendous your offense stinks.

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I completely agree with you on that. Nussmeir has always been hot/cold it seems like. They probably overlooked La Tech too.

So as I figured, we would win and everyone would start changing their expectations and saying 9-3 is out there. It's not. I have been pretty steadfast that 8-4 was our absolute we get every break ceiling.

Alcorn-W. Never a doubt

NIU-I am really glad this comes after Alcorn and not after ASU. This could've had the makings of a let down game. However, we also took some of their best players so not worried.

Tenn-This one is going to be tough. There's no way around it. Defense is going to have to come to play. They're going to be ready for the shot plays we run because Heupel and Lebby were together at UCF and formulated their version of the Veer and Shoot. Our run game is going to have to step up in that one.

@A&M-Our D will be up for this one because of Craver. If Reed is out, we have a shot. If he's not he's going to give us trouble.

@Florida-Yea it could be Billy's last stand and whatnot, but it's still The Swamp. It's still a really tough place to win.

Texas-Arch doesn't look great, and I honestly think he may be injured, but it's still Texas and they're still going to be favored. We're going to have to play extremely well to be in that one.

@Arky-As Green goes, so does their offense. We're going to have to be extremely sound and keep contain. On the road, I'm not real sure about our chances.

UGA-They honestly haven't impressed me and I see this game as a lot more winnable than Texas. Now, my tune could change depending on the Tennessee game this weekend but nothing they've done has made me think they are better than last year.

@Mizzou-This one is going to be tough. That offense is really good now. Pribula has looked better than advertised and they are really able to move the ball. Don't like our chances on the road.

OM-This one is as gettable as they have been since 2022. Simmons is struggling and I don't know that Kiffin can scheme him to not make mistakes. Their line is also REALLY shaky. And if it's shaky to start the season, then think what it'll be by game 12.


So just looking at that, I still say 7-5 is probably the best we can hope for unless Reed is out and the wheels just completely come off in Gainesville. And look, going from 2-10 to 7-5 would be a MASSIVE statement. Lebby would win COTY in the conference and probably the country.

I am in the week by week mode. ASU was a great win for State and it's good we have Alcorn next and then NIU before TN & AM.

Then it's good we get a bye week to lick our wounds and even better we have a buy week before the Egg Bowl. I can't really look that far ahead until I see how healthy we get these next two weeks and that they keep getting better.

4-0 going into TN is expected but beyond that, I really don't know how good State can become. They have to get better to win more games but they can do that.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

So as I figured, we would win and everyone would start changing their expectations and saying 9-3 is out there. It's not. I have been pretty steadfast that 8-4 was our absolute we get every break ceiling.

Alcorn-W. Never a doubt

NIU-I am really glad this comes after Alcorn and not after ASU. This could've had the makings of a let down game. However, we also took some of their best players so not worried.

Tenn-This one is going to be tough. There's no way around it. Defense is going to have to come to play. They're going to be ready for the shot plays we run because Heupel and Lebby were together at UCF and formulated their version of the Veer and Shoot. Our run game is going to have to step up in that one.

@A&M-Our D will be up for this one because of Craver. If Reed is out, we have a shot. If he's not he's going to give us trouble.

@Florida-Yea it could be Billy's last stand and whatnot, but it's still The Swamp. It's still a really tough place to win.

Texas-Arch doesn't look great, and I honestly think he may be injured, but it's still Texas and they're still going to be favored. We're going to have to play extremely well to be in that one.

@Arky-As Green goes, so does their offense. We're going to have to be extremely sound and keep contain. On the road, I'm not real sure about our chances.

UGA-They honestly haven't impressed me and I see this game as a lot more winnable than Texas. Now, my tune could change depending on the Tennessee game this weekend but nothing they've done has made me think they are better than last year.

@Mizzou-This one is going to be tough. That offense is really good now. Pribula has looked better than advertised and they are really able to move the ball. Don't like our chances on the road.

OM-This one is as gettable as they have been since 2022. Simmons is struggling and I don't know that Kiffin can scheme him to not make mistakes. Their line is also REALLY shaky. And if it's shaky to start the season, then think what it'll be by game 12.


So just looking at that, I still say 7-5 is probably the best we can hope for unless Reed is out and the wheels just completely come off in Gainesville. And look, going from 2-10 to 7-5 would be a MASSIVE statement. Lebby would win COTY in the conference and probably the country.

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11-1 is the "everything possible breaks right" record.

In order of difficulty from easiest to hardest

Alcorn - take care of business
NIU - take care of business
Florida - I think they're going to be dejected and with the bye week after our game - I think Napier is fired regardless of outcome.
OM - Egg Bowl at home. Simmons stinks. They're missing a lot from last year.
A&M - Injured QB + Aggy struggles with us. They don't move me much rn.
Arky - It being on the road has it higher than Aggy. I'm unsure where they are in relation to OM, but there's a real chance of them going 2-10 / 3-9. Losses to OM and Memphis could spiral them downward.
Mizz - Look to be fine with the backup QB.
Tenn - I'm close to putting this one as harder than Texsa. But I don't know if the syracuse win was that good. Major litmus test and the cowbells will be worth at least a TD this game. So mad I committed to Packers @ Cowboys and Texas State fair that weekend.
Texsa - Arch is beatable. There's a reason he sat behind a 7th rounder for two years.
Georgia - They've been sleepwalking. They'll be awake by the time we play.

Looking at that, 8-4 is an optimistic view. I think this team can get to 6 pretty easily. 10/11 wins is pie in the sky, but all those games are winnable. I don't think Georgia is. They won't get burned at DB so easily.

Who knows. At least there is hope again for the program.

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Originally Posted by Tater

11-1 is the "everything possible breaks right" record.

In order of difficulty from easiest to hardest

Alcorn - take care of business
NIU - take care of business
Florida - I think they're going to be dejected and with the bye week after our game - I think Napier is fired regardless of outcome.
OM - Egg Bowl at home. Simmons stinks. They're missing a lot from last year.
A&M - Injured QB + Aggy struggles with us. They don't move me much rn.
Arky - It being on the road has it higher than Aggy. I'm unsure where they are in relation to OM, but there's a real chance of them going 2-10 / 3-9. Losses to OM and Memphis could spiral them downward.
Mizz - Look to be fine with the backup QB.
Tenn - I'm close to putting this one as harder than Texsa. But I don't know if the syracuse win was that good. Major litmus test and the cowbells will be worth at least a TD this game. So mad I committed to Packers @ Cowboys and Texas State fair that weekend.
Texsa - Arch is beatable. There's a reason he sat behind a 7th rounder for two years.
Georgia - They've been sleepwalking. They'll be awake by the time we play.

Looking at that, 8-4 is an optimistic view. I think this team can get to 6 pretty easily. 10/11 wins is pie in the sky, but all those games are winnable. I don't think Georgia is. They won't get burned at DB so easily.

Who knows. At least there is hope again for the program.

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In the realm of "everything is possible".....

We are a possible trap game for UGA. They will be coming off of an easy beat down at the Cocktail Party and looking ahead to big match up with Texas.
And I'll be in attendance - and that's always a wildcard LOL

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

In the realm of "everything is possible".....

We are a possible trap game for UGA. They will be coming off of an easy beat down at the Cocktail Party and looking ahead to big match up with Texas.
And I'll be in attendance - and that's always a wildcard LOL

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Hey if they lose to Tenn then I'll say 12 winnable game. Or if we beat Tenn then I'll say 12 winnable games. I'm slow rolling the optimism as much as I can. But it's nice to be hopeful for Mississippi State football again.

Tennessee's top two corners are out again this week vs. Georgia and sound to both still be out indefinitely. Would be a huge boon to not play them. Could make our game a track meet.

6-6 and a trip to Birmingham! And y'all better be extremely excited about going to The Iron City and enjoying the Dogs in a Bowl Game!!!

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Originally Posted by CaptainObvious

6-6 and a trip to Birmingham! And y'all better be extremely excited about going to The Iron City and enjoying the Dogs in a Bowl Game!!!

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Wins over Alcorn, NIU, Florida and OM make this season a success. Everything else is gravy. But man... I love gravy.

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Originally Posted by CaptainObvious

6-6 and a trip to Birmingham! And y'all better be extremely excited about going to The Iron City and enjoying the Dogs in a Bowl Game!!!

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Me and mine would definitely be on board for that.

Bump

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Originally Posted by Tater

Bump

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If we win this weekend, clean up penalties, and make it out healthy. I will bump up mine from 5-7 wins to 7-9 wins. CALL ME CRAZY but dang I'm tired of being pessifreakingmistic

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Originally Posted by Maverick91

If we win this weekend, clean up penalties, and make it out healthy. I will bump up mine from 5-7 wins to 7-9 wins. CALL ME CRAZY but dang I'm tired of being pessifreakingmistic

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If we beat A&M in College Station this weekend we will finish 9-3. Lebby will get COTY.

Playoff is the expectation now. Time for the fans to buy in to that bc the team has and it shows

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Originally Posted by Maverick91

If we win this weekend, clean up penalties, and make it out healthy. I will bump up mine from 5-7 wins to 7-9 wins. CALL ME CRAZY but dang I'm tired of being pessifreakingmistic

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The 9-3 path is there.

Win one of Tenn / UGA / Texsa. We barely missed on Tennessee. This is totally attainable.
Win one of @ Aggy / @ Mizz. The injuries this week scare me. But Aggy plays to their competition. We've snuck out with victories before. We have their number. This is totally plausible.
Win both @ UF / @ Ark. As I said earlier this year - these games look more and more gettable.

Then... Egg Bowl is a playoff play-in game. With our SOS we're in at 9-3.

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Originally Posted by Tater

The 9-3 path is there.

Win one of Tenn / UGA / Texsa. We barely missed on Tennessee. This is totally attainable.
Win one of @ Aggy / @ Mizz. The injuries this week scare me. But Aggy plays to their competition. We've snuck out with victories before. We have their number. This is totally plausible.
Win both @ UF / @ Ark. As I said earlier this year - these games look more and more gettable.

Then... Egg Bowl is a playoff play-in game. With our SOS we're in at 9-3.

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Can't disagree. The boys just gotta get it done.