And now for the kill shot.
Tennessee- RPI in top 10 and SOS worse than MSU.
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball...dule/Tennessee
What's the difference? 24-2 in OOC play. Win your OOC games and your RPI goes up. Period. Good night.
And now for the kill shot.
Tennessee- RPI in top 10 and SOS worse than MSU.
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball...dule/Tennessee
What's the difference? 24-2 in OOC play. Win your OOC games and your RPI goes up. Period. Good night.
Yes. As in I literally have an Excel RPI workbook on my computer and replaced our wins over Mt. St. Mary's with wins over Arkansas State and it raised our RPI by 8-10 slots (give or take, because everyone else's schedules would have changed and it ripples out from there) just by switching those out. That's my point that I've said several times. We DON'T have to play a bunch of great teams to have a better RPI. Just swap out teams in the 275+ range with teams in the 175-200 range. It's just math.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Like I said, I wouldn't criticize our athletic department if we played a team that was usually in the 100s and just randomly happened to be in the 300s or high 200s this year. I picked those 3 schools on purpose because they consistently have terrible RPIs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Missouri's RPI is around 100. Mt. St. Mary's is around 300. I honestly am flabbergasted that you don't grasp the difference here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
You participated in threads where we talked about how the Alcorn State and North Alabama wins hurt our RPI. You were one of the people who said we needed to cancel the North Alabama game because it would hurt our RPI. What is even going on here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
It's not just that you're literally arguing with math, it's that you understood this all along this season until tonight, when you suddenly felt the calling to defend the honor of our athletic department or something?
Damn Todd gonna get arrested for beating a poor soul like a slave from the 1830's
....normally play against some decent competition in those events, but probably for same reason you said.....Lemon was too scared to play in a tourney against good teams. This was easily our weakest OOC schedule in my memory. Need to get back in a tourney next year......@ Houston, @ Frisco, @ Arlington or any in Florida or the West Coast. Would be cool to get back into the Dodger Classic in LA. I think we played there a few years ago vs OK, UCLA, and USC.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
We went from playing Texas tech in Gulfport to a mixed bag with new orleans and South Alabama, one of those games a loss. Very weak ooc schedule and I see why he did that. We are obviously keeping Lemonis but we can't keep playing scared turtle when it comes to schedule.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceBully
If I recall correctly (and I may not, but apparently Hoops has the almighty receipts so he can let me know) - this was the point I argued about RPI. Our schedule, both non-con and conference have not been bad. Our OOC SOS is 143 and RPI is 57. Go back to 2022 when we were getting our asses kicked as defending national champ and we had a non-con SOS at 275 and RPI of 174. That is a shit schedule and we lost 9 times in OOC play. I know there are other seasons like that out there - and I pointed out '91 when we were literally playing NAIA and DII schools and losing to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceBully
Other than MSM - which I think is a legit schedule complaint - we played teams we have played regularly going back decades. And as I pointed out, have lost to a number times and it not really effected our post season chances. As always it's about winning games. winning against MSM vs. someone else with a lower RPI likely wouldn't have changed that - because at the end of the day we lost too many games.
Frankly, with the unknowns we had coming into the season, I don't think our scheduling was a bad approach.
And again you don't understand that RPI is completely random and an unknown before the season. I'm flabbergasted that you don't understand that. We have literally played people like Arizona before and their RPI ended up being 100. And I provided multiple examples of teams that had RPI's in the top 100 that were no name teams like Xavier. Still waiting on you tell me who is going to be RPI top 100 next year. You can't. Chris Lemonis can't. Kendall Rogers can't. That's my point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
When we played North Alabama and won our RPI dropped 2 spots. That's it. That literally just happened.
This is a fact. If take away the bad losses, we are fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
I did say that about North Alabama and our RPI dropped two points. That was also before the alleged memo came out about dropping teams to help RPI came out about the NCAA committee penalizing teams for doing so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
I've already provided examples of teams with lower SOS than MSU but had higher RPI's. You win games your RPI goes up. You lose to Central Arkansas it gets damaged. Badly.
Tourneys are invitation only. They like to have different teams- and we have played in a lot of them recently. We'll be back in some soon but it's not something that is completely in our control.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceBully
Wasn?t north Alabama the last non con? What were they going to do if we canceled it? Factor it in like we played?Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Quaoarsking, what do the numbers say if we won all our non-con? Just curious if you don’t mind? This may settle the beef. I didn’t like our weak non-con either, but I can understand if you win them all it won’t hurt that bad. But if you happen to lose to some, I can only assume it’s much better to lose to team in 100-150 range than a team in 200+ range.
Both arguments can be true right?
Had we not lost so many poorly ranked OOC games I?m assuming we would be hosting regardless of who we scheduled.
Even with the losses we have, had we scheduled historically better RPI teams im assuming we would still probably be hosting.
Haha, yeah, I mean if we had gone undefeated in the non conference our RPI would be higher. Same as if we had swept Arkansas on the road. That's not the point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Again ... I'm not saying you have to know exactly where someone's RPI is going to be every year. But yes, you can make a really good guess if someone's RPI is going to be in the bottom 50 or somewhere in the middle.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Xavier's RPI has been in the top 100 in 4 of the last 5 years and #101 in the year it wasn't. So yes, I would have expected Xavier to probably be in the top 100 again this year, or worst case in the 150 - 200 range. Big East teams don't generally get much worse than that.
On the other hand, Alcorn State, North Alabama, and Mt. St. Mary's were always going to have terrible RPIs. Year in year out, most of the ASUN and MAAC are worse than 200 - Mt. St. Mary's actually had a winning conference record and still had an RPI of 284. Even if they had turned out to be unexpectedly good and won their conferences (which there was no reason to expect, but is always possible I guess), the best case scenario was going to be that those games were a wash for us. The SWAC is even worse. Every SWAC school is worse than 200, with 5 of the 12 (including Alcorn State as usual) in the bottom 15.
Again, you and Coach 34 are literally arguing with math. And it doesn't even make sense. Why are you being so defensive about this? Did your relative schedule the Mt. St. Mary's series or something? Our athletic department screwed up when we scheduled that series because all indications, everything we knew going into it, suggested it would drag down our RPI, and it did. We should 100% adopt a "smart scheduling" mindset where we try to maximize our RPI, project teams are going to help our RPI the most, and use that in filling it out.
Edit: Todd directly acknowledges in the post that we dropped a couple of ranks by beating North Alabama. I listed 4 other games against teams with worse RPIs than North Alabama. So even if he doesn't understand the guts of RPI calculation, he gets the concept that you can lose 2 ranks by playing 1 team with an RPI that bad. So what happens when we play 5 games against teams that bad? And we know historical RPIs of these teams and know that those schools are consistently this bad, that it wasn't some freak fluke thing? You're basically there, Todd. You're not a disloyal fan or anything if you just acknowledge the numbers for what they are.
If we had gone 25-0 in the non-conference instead of 19-6, I have our RPI at #9.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdawg
Or if we hadn't scheduled Mt. St. Mary's, North Alabama, or Alcorn State and replaced them with teams around #200, and then gone 25-0, our RPI could have been #6. (It's hard to improve much in the rankings at the highest levels because teams aren't bunched together anymore.)
But the thing is that almost no one ever goes literally undefeated in the non-conference. (Texas A&M did this year, and that's a key reason why they're #1, in addition to a great SEC record.) We can't really count on that. What we can count on is not scheduling games that we know are very likely to hurt our RPI. It would have been very easy to schedule someone other than Mt. St. Mary's for a weekend series. Is it possible that that replacement team could have surprisingly been terrible and hurt us anyway? Sure. But we knew that even in a best case scenario that a program like Mt. St. Mary's wasn't going to be able to have a good enough RPI not to hurt us.
With our non-con schedule, I think we knew from the beginning it was weak and didn’t need to lose many or there would be some kind detriment to our seasons results.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
RPI is a terrible metric with some lack of transparency. It's used by the NCAA to do whatever they want. Our other programs have been sent out west already, don't be surprised if baseball is sent there too. It's a BS system but we didn't do anything to help ourselves. Too much SWAC and not enough Swag.
Agree that it's a terrible metric. It is not very predictive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Disagree that it's not transparent. Anyone can build their own model to "check" the results although admittedly it's tough to know exactly which games count as home vs. neutral.
Despite all of that, the #1 takeaway is that it is manipulable. We could schedule in a way to maximize our RPI, but we don't. This exact team with its same record could have a better RPI, one that's good enough to host, without changing anything about our performance. We should be doing that in every sport that uses RPI. We should be looking to manipulate the NET to our advantage in basketball too.
Sure, or we could have not scheduled games against teams we knew would hurt our RPI and replaced them with teams that project into the 175-200 range, had the same 19-6 non-conference record, and we would be hosting right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdawg
I think we're probably around the 20th best team in America. We could have scheduled smart and gotten ourselves and RPI around #15, but instead we scheduled dumb and got ourselves and RPI of #23. "How can we maximize our RPI?" should be the top concern when making our schedule, and it's just crazy to me that that's apparently not a factor at all.
It was by no means good but there are 4 conference teams with worse and a fifth, LSU, was only two spots better than ours.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Imagine sweeping a conference opponent and your RPI falls. Teams have no control over that.
We can only schedule our OOC games and we really hurt ourselves with both scheduling and performance in those games. Even if we schedule great, if teams end up not being great later in the year, it hurts you. You get penalized for playing a team with injuries too. They might've been great to start but they fell off because of injury. Teams also get better as the season moves forward and there's no way to make up for those games really. You penalize a team playing great. You reward a team that might not be. We've been good late. But what happened 3 months ago is held over your head. It's a poor system.
It is a poor system for sure. Like has been said already, you should be able to drop two or three of your worst rpi opponents at year end and calculate from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Question for you Q since you have the numbers. And I am assuming this is what you are talking about. For example say we play a 180 rpi team, at home of course, and lose. Or we play a 280 rpi team and win. How do those two scenarios compare?Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Accuses me of arguing with math. Then admits that our RPI would be 9 had we won all of our games in the very next post. So in other words win the games and you minimize any hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
I'm laughing at you because you don't get it and won't get it. Maybe you will if Arkansas State is RPI 200+ next year which is possible.
Hasn't it been posted here many times by many of our learned "experts" in this RPI formula, that if you schedule a tougher opponent and lose, the RPI fall is minimal? But you can even beat a cupcake (that we seem to have scheduled too many of), and still fall? And Heaven forbid you lose to said cupcakes ( and at home games of course) you fall off the RPI cliff. Or was this a basketball only formula? Color me confused.
Post from Todd:
QUOTE=Todd4State;1582351]I don't really understand why MSU fans always run down the OOC schedule other than we like to see good baseball games. And it seems like every time we play someone like Arizona they have a down year and end up being a RPI killer.
None of this really matters much. How we do in SEC play will determine our postseason fate. It's fun to look at RPI but our true magic number is 13 SEC wins.
As far as this year we would be dumb to play a killer schedule OOC. We're rebuilding our pitching staff and four weeks to build some confidence and figure out roles is what we need to do.
[/QUOTE]
But did they lose 5 Quad 4 games to these teams? We win against these type teams, no problem and no discussion. We seemed to think we could just beat these teams based on the name on our jerseys for several of these games. Coming off the '22 and '23 seasons this is squarely on the Coaching staff and players for sleep walking through several of these mid-week games. Winning solves most all problems.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Coach34:
QUOTE=Coach34;1582279]This. We'll have a top SOS at the end of the season. Every SEC team will.
23-3 OOC is very realistic when you consider last year's team was 18-5 OOC[/QUOTE]
I could go on and on, but I won't.
It's not hard to say, I was wrong, hoops and others were right. Lemo screwed up.
Doubt we were an attractive tourney invite after '22 and '23. Might hurt the RPI of the good teams in said tourney to lose to us by arguments on this thread.****Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Yes, you are arguing with math because for some reason you think I'm attacking Lemonis over this (I'm not, it's just numbers) and you want to reflexively defend him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Asking the team to go 25-0 in the non-conference is unrealistic. Every baseball team drops a couple of games here and there. Yes, Texas A&M didn't lose a non-conference game so far this year, but they're the only one in the country out of 305. Last year it was just 1 team (Virginia). In 2022 it was nobody. It's not something you can realistically expect even a great team to do.
On the other hand, asking the athletic department not schedule games that we know with high certainty will hurt our RPI is realistic, or at the very least don't schedule FIVE of them. That's an easy problem to fix. Whoever is in charge of scheduling baseball games hurt this team before the season even started, and probably took away a hosting bid from us.
Again, it's really bizarre that you're arguing against this. Did you hit your head this morning? Did your wife schedule the Mt. St. Mary's series? It's just basic mathematics of the RPI formula, something we've all understood for years and discussed many times in the decade+ this season has existed, including as recently as a week ago, discussions which you participated in and agreed that scheduling North Alabama was a bad idea (!)
Here's a summary for those who don't want to read the whole thread:
"Hey guys I've run the numbers and found out an easy way we could have had a better RPI just with smarter scheduling. We should do that going forward."
"THAT'S NOT TRUE! YOU'RE MAKING THAT UP!"
"No, it is. I have an Excel model and replaced the games to measure the impact."
"NO! IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE KNOWN THAT PROGRAMS LIKE MT. ST. MARY'S AND ALCORN STATE WOULD HAVE HAD SUCH BAD RPIS! NO ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THAT, NOT EVEN KENDALL ROGERS!"
"Actually, those teams routinely have really bad RPIs, so we had a pretty good idea that they would again this year. If we had just aimed for teams in that 150-200 range we would be hosting."
"NO! THE SCHEDULE WAS FINE! WE SHOULD HAVE JUST GONE 25-0 AGAINST THE NON-CONFERENCE PORTION!"
"I mean, yeah, that would have helped our RPI, but that's not very realistic. And even if we had gone 25-0, it still would have been better to not play 5 games against teams that would plummet our RPI. And didn't you agree with me on this like a week ago, only to flip on this thread?"
"YOU JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND!!!"
Delete
Exactly. Good to see someone gets it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldendawg
Where am I defending Lemonis in any of this? My annoyance is every year fans like you bitch about our easy OOC schedule no matter what and if we win it takes care of itself. And lo and behold we sit here with 17 SEC wins and are in the thick of the hosting conversation. So no- I wasn't wrong. You are. And you decided to call me out even though you were wrong while repeatedly ignoring the examples I provided that show you were obviously wrong. We didn't win enough so our RPI didn't get high enough. We beat Central Arkansas and South Alabama and we're fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
I do agree it's unrealistic to expect a team to go 26-0 OOC. However it's not unrealistic to expect us to go 22-4 or 23-3. And had that happened our RPI would have been much higher. The fact that your own data shows you that the ceiling of our schedule is a RPI of 9 in and of itself proves you wrong but you don't get it. So now you're stuck making up BS about my wife wanting us to play St. Mary's because you can't even defend your own findings.
So again- no we're not here because of our schedule. We're here because the team didn't beat what was on the schedule enough. You think you can "game" RPI and you really can't. Which is why you still haven't told me who we should schedule next year yet. And won't be able to because I actually understand RPI and you clearly have no clue. It's actually pretty funny. You're like someone declaring the Earth is really flat because that's what it looks like to your eye but everyone else knows you're wrong.
Here's the real summary:Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Quaors doesn't understand RPI and his own findings prove him hilariously wrong so now he is blaming Todd4State's wife for scheduling St. Mary's and creating straw men while trying to ignore Todd4State's examples that also prove Quoars wrong.
But no one is buying it.
Schedule:
Austin Peay tied for their conference title- 35-19 this season
Evansville tied for 2nd in their conference
MSM finished 4th in their conference
Air Force won the Mountain West
Samford finished 2nd in their conference
New Orleans was 3rd in their conference
Southern Miss was 2nd/Georgia Southern was 4th
You finally tricked that chick into marrying you? Good jobQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
My future son-n-law will be joining you in Nola at work this Fall- maybe my daughter as well. Both are pharmacists
LOL. No not yet. She has said the "hey let's go look in that jewelry store though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
If they're pharmacists there is a chance I'll run across them in NOLA. It's an awesome city. I love it!