If that?s the only criteria though then UCF is a better job than half of the SEC
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Neither has TCU, yet. They're both newer additions to the Big 12 in large, populated states with recent success.
Of course going to a lower tier conference is going to lead to more success but you could say that about any team in the Big 12 really.
I do think the allure to being "home" meant a lot to Briles and he had really close friends at TCU from his days in Texas so that combined with an easier conference to put points up in probably made sense for him.
No they have not, but a team that won the national title and has had a lot of success in the p5 for the past 15 years or so is easier in general to move up than a school like Arkansas (or any other sec school in Arkansas’ tier). He is going to go to the big 12 and score a billion points and get a good p5 head job in a year or 2. He was not going to do that at Arkansas.