Bill Connelly is an idiot

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10-11-2022, 03:18 PM
Eric Nies Grind Time

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maverick91

He thinks Kentucky is going to win like 26-25.

Has he not watched any football this year?

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either. So this is a prediction based on a full strength Levis.
10-11-2022, 03:20 PM
somebodyshotmypaw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric Nies Grind Time

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either.

I we score 25 points it means we had 4 touchdowns and went 1 for 4 on extra point attempts.
10-11-2022, 03:24 PM
Tater

Quote:

Originally Posted by somebodyshotmypaw

I we score 25 points it means we had 4 touchdowns and went 1 for 4 on extra point attempts.

It's an average from a model that simulates thousands of iterations of the game.

Data analysis ain't rocket surgery.
10-11-2022, 03:32 PM
somebodyshotmypaw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tater

It's an average from a model that simulates thousands of iterations of the game.

Data analysis ain't rocket surgery.

I was just poking fun at our issues with kicking extra points.
10-11-2022, 03:39 PM
Johnson85

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

And, while I hate agreeing with C34, this has become a "home team" series again - since 2015 the home team has won. Analysts are right to look at this as a tough SEC road game for us because it typically is.

I still think we win big.

ETA - I really wish this game could stay on our "rivalry" list as a permanent team when the schedule changes. Prior to UK becoming a regular on the schedule, we were 6-10 against them.
Since we started playing them annually in 1990, we are 20-12.

It's been a home series, but it's mostly just that UK sucks on the road, not that we havfe inexplicably sucked on the road. We have just had problems every other year since 2015. 2016, we were dealing with leadership issues after Dak left and mainly dealing with Sirmone being our DC. We lose a close one on the road.

2017, we have Grantham, and FItzgerald is established, and we roll at home.

2018, we have JoMo showing us why he can't be a head coach and we still hang close until our defense just gets worn out.

2019, even with JoMo and a screwed up team, UK manages to lose to us.

2020, we are dealing with installing air raid in a shortened off season. They win b/c we suck. We also suck at home mostly though.

2021, we show competence off and on throughout the season and beat them at home.

So I would say it's really hard for them to win in Starkville, but when we are at Lexington it's mostly been about us being shitty. Certainly home field matters, but I don't think we have really underperformed in Lexington.
10-11-2022, 03:48 PM
TrapGame

The crowd may be a little lighter at Kroger Field too. A lot of UK folks putting their tickets up for sale. The USC loss really spoiled their season.
10-11-2022, 03:53 PM
R2Dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saltydog

There's a lot of awfully over confident people on this board these days. Should we beat them, "yes". Will we, "more than likely". Is it a given, "NO".

Remember 2018 in Lexington?

18 was Joe with his head up his....

If CML had not shown ability to adapt like he has since LSU I'd be less optimistic. Also the fact that UK is not as good up front as they have been in years past. This game should be back to business as usual for MSU teams beating UK.

Could we lose, sure. No MSU fan is saying we can't lose to anyone. But it shouldn't happen this year.
10-11-2022, 04:17 PM
memsu06

Also, remember last year Will had one of his best games ever against Kentucky. I think this completion percentage was insanely high.
10-11-2022, 04:23 PM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnson85

It's been a home series, but it's mostly just that UK sucks on the road, not that we havfe inexplicably sucked on the road. We have just had problems every other year since 2015. 2016, we were dealing with leadership issues after Dak left and mainly dealing with Sirmone being our DC. We lose a close one on the road.

2017, we have Grantham, and FItzgerald is established, and we roll at home.

2018, we have JoMo showing us why he can't be a head coach and we still hang close until our defense just gets worn out.

2019, even with JoMo and a screwed up team, UK manages to lose to us.

2020, we are dealing with installing air raid in a shortened off season. They win b/c we suck. We also suck at home mostly though.

2021, we show competence off and on throughout the season and beat them at home.

So I would say it's really hard for them to win in Starkville, but when we are at Lexington it's mostly been about us being shitty. Certainly home field matters, but I don't think we have really underperformed in Lexington.

As fans, we all know this. From a sports writer perspective who only looks at scores and W/L (if that), they care nothing about what you wrote and don't care to find out anything deeper - hence the 26-25 outcome prediction.
10-11-2022, 04:38 PM
Maverick91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric Nies Grind Time

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either. So this is a prediction based on a full strength Levis.

This model must not adjust week to week. This seems like a preseason prediction.
10-11-2022, 04:39 PM
Mjoelner34

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

And, while I hate agreeing with C34, this has become a "home team" series again - since 2015 the home team has won.

On the surface it appears that way if you look only at the locations and the scores but it really isn't.

2016: Peter Sirmon. We gave up 40pts.
2018: Shit-show Joe tried to turn Fitz into Dan Marino on a cold, wet night.
2020: 3rd game in the air raid plus 6 ints. UK only had 157 yds of offense. We outgained them almost 2-1. They scored on a pick 6 (of course), a VERY short field after an int and a short field after a long run.

They may win Saturday but they would have beaten us at home in 2016, 2018 and 2020 with Sirmon, Shit-show Joe and the lack of experience running the air raid.
10-11-2022, 05:31 PM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by memsu06

Also, remember last year Will had one of his best games ever against Kentucky. I think this completion percentage was insanely high.

In Last years game WR started utiliizing the Run game more and it showed in the Victory with 3 rushing TDs.
10-11-2022, 08:13 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric Nies Grind Time

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either. So this is a prediction based on a full strength Levis.

That's interesting since we've only given up more than 26 once this year and scored less than 25 once as well. Both at LSU.
10-11-2022, 08:17 PM
PikeDawg15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

That's interesting since we've only given up more than 26 once this year and scored less than 25 once as well. Both at LSU.

The more I think about that game. The more pissed off I get.
10-16-2022, 04:54 PM
somebodyshotmypaw

What?s your thought now?
10-16-2022, 05:51 PM
Joebob

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maverick91

He thinks Kentucky is going to win like 26-25.

Has he not watched any football this year?

Well, that didn't age well.
10-16-2022, 06:22 PM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

We will Skull F them. Leach is focused as shit and it appears so is the Team. He knows that this year can be special and after the LSU game debacle he means not to repeat that second half. Dam I'm sounding like BSD.

Wow was I wrong/
10-16-2022, 06:39 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Wow was I wrong/

Leach does this to people.
10-16-2022, 07:31 PM
Maverick91

Didnt think we would completely crap a brick. Again! My mood on the current skill of this team has changed and hinged on how we did in this game.
10-16-2022, 07:35 PM
msu15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maverick91

Didnt think we would completely crap a brick. Again! My mood on the current skill of this team has changed and hinged on how we did in this game.

Coaching has a lot to do with it. Kentucky has a better staff top to bottom.

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