What this guy ^ said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen
The TV peeps do care about "rivalries", however... but only as far as the ratings they will deliver. That's a lot of why the Bammer/UT & Bammer/Aubie games "have" to take place...
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What this guy ^ said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen
The TV peeps do care about "rivalries", however... but only as far as the ratings they will deliver. That's a lot of why the Bammer/UT & Bammer/Aubie games "have" to take place...
I think the lynchpin in all realignment discussion is North Carolina. The SEC and Big 10 would both take them, and if they want to bring NC State, Duke, and/or Virginia (who might want to bring Va Tech) with them, the conferences would at least consider it.
Not sure if Duke actually makes it, but the other 4 will definitely wind up in the Big 10/SEC in some combo, either all 4 in one, or split between them. And then it shakes out to 20-24 from there.
My best guess is that the SEC goes to 24 by adding Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech (I know, but we don't want to surrender Atlanta to the Big 10), Clemson, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. That's quite a haul, adds every major program in the Southeast and locks the Big 10 out permanently.
The Big 10 then goes to 24 with Notre Dame, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, and after that it's less clear. Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Cal, Arizona, Arizona State all the mix. Maybe TCU if they want to get into Texas, and schools like Syracuse or Pittsburgh would at least be considered. They would love to poach Missouri, but I think it's not very likely.
If the SEC misses on the NC/VA tetro, then Louisville, Oklahoma State, or West Virginia could get the call. I would be pretty surprised if the SEC went out West though.
Miami is not a college football city. It's a good TV market, but "locking it down" doesn't produce the same impact as locking down a Dallas or Houston. Also, "The U" is a small private school. Not sure getting Miami locks down Miami any more tha getting TCU would lock down Dallas. U of Miami is definitely more relevant to Miami than TCU is to Dallas, but it's just one of three players in a city where college sports are an afterthought.Quote:
Originally Posted by coachnorm
Good post with good information. Consider USC before Pete Carroll and the monster he awoke in short time. Los Angeles was dormant with Paul Hacket as head coach. I personally believe that Mario Cristobal is going to wake up the Miami program. Is Miami business NIL on the horizon? This is going to enhance the Hurricanes as prime viewing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
I personally believe that Miami, under Cristobal, will surpass the Gators, FSU, UCF, and USF in State in three years. If this happens, Miami has to be in the P2.
You have made good points on DFW also. What is the landscape going to be in that major metro if NIL explodes in DFW in years to come with the P2 on the horizon? DFW is a monetary footprint to be reckoned with? Today you are on point with TCU and SMU not being relevant but DFW footprint is relevant today and tomorrow. Will NIL money, in their back yard, fix the DFW status? Now, you could still be correct because DFW has had money in the past pre NIL and nothing might not change also.
My question, to you is, if Vanderbilt gets relegated out of the P2 20 team conference and TCU was promoted into it, is the SEC profoundly improved as a P2 organization? This is what I am thinking the ESPN New Yorkers will be discussing.
The idea of "relegating" Vanderbilt out of the conference is terrifying for the precedent it sets.
Well, the SEC will have to be abandoned and a new organization chartered to kick Vanderbilt out. That's not just a massive obstacle, but it's not nothing. The bigger protection I think is the blue bloods are going to want some easy wins, even if the networks only care about eyeballs. And the other have nots also need a whipping boy and will be concerned that they will be next if Vanderbilt gets dropped. Certainly if Vandy get's dropped it's only a matter of time before the discussions start on which Mississippi school to keep and which to drop because MS's population can't justify 2 schools.Quote:
Originally Posted by coachnorm
There's a distinct possibility that schools like Vanderbilt eliminate themselves willingly in the coming sports landscape. We are headed for true 'pay for play' with athletes being employees of the universities they attend. There's a case winding it's way through Federal court now, Johnson vs NCAA that will likely open that door. Vanderbilt, Stanford, Northwestern, schools of that ilk may choose to de-emphasize sports and willingly drop from their conferences.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
When the BUG added Rutgers and Maryland, and the SEC aTm and Mizz, the landscape was purely 'market' driven, ie cable carriage and the number of subscribers in the state. This recent, and likely subsequent conference expansions will be more 'brand' driven than market... Helmet schools that will drive national viewership from the "big name matchup" games they can generate. Despite the city size of Miami/Dade, the university only controls about 17% of the total FL market but would be a good national TV draw vs Alabama, LSU, or Texas in a conference game. UNC is the inverse; Not a great draw as a football brand, but delivers enough of the NC market in football (not to mention BkB) that would make them a worthy add. FSU and Clemson are the two 'brands' I'm sure the SEC will take when available. What to do about UVA and VT is a mystery to me; VT is the better and more popular brand but many projections I've read have UVA as the SEC's primary choice in VA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Again, you did a good post with good content. I believe that it is going to be all about the P2. I see the P2 as the top 40 programs, 20 AFC and 20 NFC. Now it will be the New York SEC versus the Los Angeles Fox, NBC, and CBS battling it out for viewers. The network battles may get more blood thirsty than the actual football of the P2 40. This corporate blood lust could have casualties and I believe them to be Vanderbilt, Rutgers, and probably Illinois. Corporate P2 investments will demand return on investments. I believe that Mississippi State and Ole Miss are firmly in the top 40 P2 umbrella to date.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
dont care about the BIGQuote:
Originally Posted by coachnorm
Auburn in the North makes no sense, they would win it 3 out of every 5 years.
Auburn has to be in the South or the East, auburn is further south than ole miss, MSU, alabama,
Quote:
Originally Posted by coachnorm
Very good post about Miami
If there are 2 football programs I believe that will be "back" that have been down for decades is
Miami and Tennessee
Miami is a massive market that is only growing with time and they will dominate the entire state of florida with The U brand
The only counter that could be made is FSU hiring deion Sanders
The state of alabama the next decade will be very interesting because if rumors are true, which i think they are... when harsin gets fired in november this year, Auburn will be hiring Hugh Freeze and paying players will be legal.
When Saban leaves.... Either Alabama will hire Dabo Swinney or possibly go get Lane Kiffin if he proves to be a great coach ( This year will prove it if he is in fact a good coach)
I really hope The leagues figure out possibly a salary cap on NIL deals per team
It is Alabama.Quote:
Originally Posted by coachnorm
I don't think Miami is going to dominate the state of florida, but talking about Miami being a major market does bring up the point that Florida may be the only state that 17ed up the location of its universities worse than Mississippi. All the great places in Florida, and your two major state universities end up in Tallahassee and Gainesville? Gainesville is at least reasonably centrally located between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa. But having your "southern" university an hour and a half from the northern border and 5 and a half hours from the southern border (ignoring the keys) is pretty bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by PikeDawg15
Of course, those schools were founded about a 100 years before malaria was eradicated in the US and Tallahassee was the capital, so definitely a lot more understandable how they ended up in that situation. I don't have an explanation of how Mississippi could have 17ed it up so badly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_MP7hYSZ2E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhgNocOPksE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DOdAfO7uL4
This link, on 365, is worth being noticed. The BIG10 media deal is way over priced for what the conference offers. The clip brings up Notre Dame which is an NBC partner. NBC is going to televise only prime time college ball. Read between the lines and ND will follow its partner because it will be in its best interest. NBC previously had ND home games. When the new deal happens NBC has Notre Dame at Los Angeles as a BIG10 game? Notre Dame will get great away game exposure not available as a NBC home game venue of the past.
365 have discussed Washington, Oregon, and Stanford. Intersectional games will bring eyes to the networks that are shelling out all that money. This type of money cannot be supported with games like Indiana versus Minnesota. Penn State versus Washington or Michigan versus Oregon is the money makers? Intersectional games like this are a threat to Disney/ESPN profits on a weekly basis. Could the major networks be looking for quality over quantity college football in the future?
The SEC only has ABC and ESPN and only ABC is over the air television. The BIG has three over the air networks so the SEC has to stay aggressive to maintain its dominance in the P2 environment. We all know that many are cutting the cord and watching less cable and satellite television. The BIG will have three over the air networks to the SEC one. Can the SEC afford to not evolve to a 20 team P2 conference under these future conditions?
You talk about Miami and tcu, is Vandy not a sleeping giant with NIL?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgpile
However I will add this, Dallas and a lot of other big cities are full of alumni from other schools. It's not like everyone around Dallas pulls for TCU.
I was thinking the same thing. Vandy has tons of money. They're already winning multiple championships in baseball, and they are located in a great city. But do they care enough about sports to start slinging NIL money?Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLostDawg
Vandy has endowment money - it's the schools money and I'm not sure they could launder that into NIL money ... However, Nashville I'm sure is above average on personal and commercial per-capita income / revenue but I'm not sure if they have the alumni to pull it off ... it will be interesting to seeQuote:
Originally Posted by TheLostDawg
They don't. And the city of Nashville doesn't care about them, so it's not really much of a help to them. Vandy has an enrollment under 13k in a city of 700k and MSA of 1.2M. They just don't move the needle. Even if they had a multi-billionaire decide to start putting $25M a year into football NIL, and they were able to become competitive, I don't see them having the cache that the U had back in the day. Just think their "brand" isn't going to bring in sidewalk fans.Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOVx9Xa-HkA&t=607sQuote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWikeKWhVLU
I attached some more realignment news for elitedawg scrutiny. Consider absorbing the time slot discussion presented with the competition for time slots in play. The 20 team conference is discussed for the BIG10. The SEC has to answer, remember all but live sport viewership is declining on television. Consider listening fully to get a corporate and not a football sense of college football? I still believe that the money is so powerful that Rutgers will get removed from the BIG10 and Vanderbilt will back fill one of the ACC teams placed in the SEC.
May have lots of $, but have shown little interest in spending any on that crackerjack box of a stadium. Academic standards have made it difficult to recruit FB players over their years in addition to their horrible record in the sport. Remember when they worked out a deal with Belmont College where their players could get a degree in PE? Didn't last that long. Franklin won there but don't remember how. Being in a city with NFL and NHL getting sports $ doesn't help them either. P.S. Remember with their high academic standards, Fred Smoot even offered to let one of their WR's catch a pass if he would help him with his homework!**Quote:
Originally Posted by DownwardDawg