The Thing Everyone Needs to Understand About the Transfer Portal Era

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by confucius say

That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.

Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.

I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.

---

I agree you should take HS impact guys, & maybe a few developmental guys that fully understand that they're a developmental guy that won't see the field for a few years, but you shouldn't reach. You should save as many scholarships as possible for the portal.

There are always going to be good G5 players looking to move up & we'll have a better idea which of those guys can play after they're in school for a year or two at a G5

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Johnson85

I feel like if you have a Junior coming from a Blue blood program that is sitting behind a likely draft pick, that is as good or better roll of the dice than most JUCOs. If they're at a position of need, I think that will normally be a no brainer for us. Even better if they decide with three years of eligibility that they're tired of sitting the bench.

---

Totally agree. Could be a guy with 3 years left to play if they redshirted at the blue blood.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.

---

Maybe, depends on the year, but you don't reach on any of those 18 talent wise

We should continue recruiting every 94+ rated HS player in the country so that we have prior relationships with 15% that enter the portal in less than two years

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Agree. It will be interesting to see where things stand in a few years.

---

Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.

I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU

Well, when you?ve put more people in the first round than you have losses, it?s gonna happen. Saban told folks it better change or else he?s just gonna use it to shop and the talent gap will just get bigger.

I agree to some extend but, not everyone is going to be a transfer player. There will still be more guys that don't transfer than do.

What you can do now is not take those project players. Getting a guy just to get to a number for depth is not going to happen as much. Those guys will go G5 for a year or two and if they develop, they will then transfer to a P5.

18-22 high school & 5-10 transfer guys seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of coaches. I think if you go 15-20 transfer guys you are setting yourself up for disaster at least if you do it multiple years.

The players with 3 years left won't be as common in the future and you can't replace your whole roster every two years. That extra Covid year will be gone.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.

I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU

---

Agree with all.

I wish there was a playing time component attached to the free transfer. If you played X% of your teams snaps, you have to sit a year if you transfer

I think for MSU an ideal class would be 20 high school players and 5 transfers between JUCO and the portal.

I think the portal is similar to what JUCO kind of used to be although not entirely the same. If you sign 10-15 high school kids a cycle then at some point that will catch up to a team because some of those players won't pan out in the 10-15 member class and then they're in a situation where they have to get more and more transfers or they're going to end up very young at some point. Same thing that happened to Jackie when we loaded up on JUCO's. Going JUCO heavy helped us win big from 1996-2000. But by 2002 our numbers were really messed up and it set us back for awhile.

Similarly, signing players out of the portal isn't without risk. Especially QB's. Those players are leaving for a reason. It isn't just to make more NIL money. To me, it's mostly about playing time and coaches changing than anything. Look at the majority of MSU players that entered the portal. Most were not guys that were expected to play anytime soon if at all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

HS recruits can up & leave after 1 semester. It's hard to develop & coach them correctly. You can't really de-recruit them like a coaching staff needs to be able to do

---

Yes, but again, the vast majority won't. You have to invest in them like they will stick around and just take your losses on the ones that don't.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.

I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU

---

Justin Fields
Jameson Williams
Baker Mayfield
Jalen Hurts

The list goes on, and you don't even realize them all, guys like Derion Kendrick at UGA.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I think for MSU an ideal class would be 20 high school players and 5 transfers between JUCO and the portal.

I think the portal is similar to what JUCO kind of used to be although not entirely the same. If you sign 10-15 high school kids a cycle then at some point that will catch up to a team because some of those players won't pan out in the 10-15 member class and then they're in a situation where they have to get more and more transfers or they're going to end up very young at some point. Same thing that happened to Jackie when we loaded up on JUCO's. Going JUCO heavy helped us win big from 1996-2000. But by 2002 our numbers were really messed up and it set us back for awhile.

Similarly, signing players out of the portal isn't without risk. Especially QB's. Those players are leaving for a reason. It isn't just to make more NIL money. To me, it's mostly about playing time and coaches changing than anything. Look at the majority of MSU players that entered the portal. Most were not guys that were expected to play anytime soon if at all.

---

You can sign as many players out of the portal thst have left your program if those players aren't grad transfers. Sign 15-18 HS kids one or two JUCOs and the rest transfer portal guys

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by smootness

Justin Fields
Jameson Williams
Baker Mayfield
Jalen Hurts

The list goes on, and you don't even realize them all, guys like Derion Kendrick at UGA.

---

Mayfield and Hurts and Fields were before starters were transferring to start somewhere else

Delete

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Maybe, depends on the year, but you don't reach on any of those 18 talent wise

---

We've reached on a lot of guys who played in the nfl. Calhoun, Jenkins, banks, Preston smith, Bmac, Dillon day, beckwith, tyre Phillips, Dak, etc.... bunch of two and low to mid 3 stars.

There are multiple ways to get it done. Portal is certainly one way.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catfish

And it might save them this year.

---

it just did ... I think 247 is giving them the #1 spot on portal recruiting. They also just picked up the TE from USC (Trigg)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dawgfan77

You can sign as many players out of the portal thst have left your program if those players aren't grad transfers. Sign 15-18 HS kids one or two JUCOs and the rest transfer portal guys

---

That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hot Rock

That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.

---

I think that 32 is only approved for a temporary basis. I think they bumped it because of a combination of blue bloods were going to be left short handed as a result of a lot of bench warmers transferring out and also realizing a lot of sholarships were going to be left unused (or given to walkons) while there were simultaneously a lot of transfers without scholarships, and they didn't want the PR headache.

I think (hope) they are going to ratchet that down over time. Or they may have separate slots for high school and transfer players so they don't have a lot fewer high school students getting scholarship offers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hot Rock

That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.

---

We are somewhere in the middle here
https://www.si.com/college/2021/08/2...ransfer-portal

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dawgfan77

We are somewhere in the middle here
https://www.si.com/college/2021/08/2...ransfer-portal

---

Appreciate that link. Ill admit I didn't ace differential equations...... however, Ive been doing the math. Aren't teams building themselves up for a one year run and creating a hole in the roster that will sink them for seasons. I mean if your signing class is 20-30% portal, 1 year guys. Don't you have to sign 20-30% of 1 year guys forever or until finally you sign 25 HS guys and have a void in the upper classes.