No. If you took the time to read I said that we should?ve run the skinny post to Williams that we ran all game that had been WIDE DAMN OPEN every time. The only time they defended it they had PIQuote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
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No. If you took the time to read I said that we should?ve run the skinny post to Williams that we ran all game that had been WIDE DAMN OPEN every time. The only time they defended it they had PIQuote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
And again. None of our opinions matter at the end of the day. We?re just pontificating on a message board. We all want the same thing which is success for Mississippi StateQuote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
You do realize they would have been in a prevent defense with a 3 man rush and about 5 guys standing on the goal line correct?Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
I'm fine with saying Ruiz should have kicked it instead of McCord. But skinny post is the brilliant idea that gets us the 33 yard TD? Jesus.
LBs miss tackles. OL miss blocks. QBs throw ints. That?s all part of the game. If anyone is considering sending Ruiz or McCord anything like that, I hope that they stop and ask themselves how they?d feel if someone sent that to their son or brother. It?s a game. It sucks to lose, but it?s not that important.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
Good heavens this is ridiculous take.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
We had a much better chance at converting that kick than a 33 yard passQuote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
If they?re in prevent then we beat them. Odom would not have played prevent right there. 5 guys standing on the goaline and we just run a damn screen to Marks and let him walk in.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
Like button push x2 ☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻Quote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
What????Quote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
You do know the guys can move forward to tackle right? It's not like foosball where the guys can only move laterally right?
This has gotten out of hand. I refuse to be part of this stupidity.
Since you apparently can?t do simple math I will help you. If they have 5 on the goal line that means they have 6 to cover everyone else. Common sense tells us they?ll put 3 down lineman so that?s 8. That leaves 3 to roam. We have 5 OL and 4 receivers in most sets so that?s 9 blocking. I?ll take my chances with your dumbass defense and I?m fairly certain I?ll score. I?m glad you?re refusing to be part of stupidity since you?ve contributed to it the entire thread to this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
NmQuote:
Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve
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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
22 yards, not 33. I don't know how it's possible to know it was a ~40 yard field goal but also think such a FG would be snapped from the 33 yard line.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
A 22-yard TD would probably be around a 20% chance to convert, given the circumstances. Maybe a little less.
The field goal there with McCord was ... maybe 1-of-3? And even if we get it, we go to Overtime where we're probably less than 50-50 to win, considering how we don't have a reliable kicker.
So, going for the TD from the 22 probably gives us a better chance to win the game than kicking with McCord. Kicking with Ruiz - if he's both physically and mentally healthy - may give us a higher chance, but I'm guess he was not at 100% or he would've been out there.
TD attempt < 20%Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
FG by your estimate 33%
OT win 50%
But going for it gives us the best chance? Your calculations aren?t used for bridges and such, huh?
My bad. Brain is a little fuzzy. I'm in the hospital and my daughter was born earlier this morning. I was thinking from a different spot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Anyone that says chances of scoring a TD from the 23 yard line is better than making a 40 yard FG is living in crazy town. 20% of getting 23 yards in one try is absurd.
I'll say it again. It's no surprise certain people in this board don't or have never coached. When you say things like this it's obvious why you don't coach. I still can't believe multiple people in this fan base support a 23 yard pass attempt to win a game over a 40 yard FG to tie a game.
Well, 33% * 50% = 16.5%, which is less than 20%, so...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dak Holliday
They?re independent of one another. It?s 33% chance of getting to a 50% chance vs a less than 20% chance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Luckily no one is saying that. Because McCord's kick would have only tied the game, we would have had to have won in overtime even if he'd made it.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
You can use whatever numbers you want, but McCord has to be twice as likely to make the kick there (probably a little more than twice as likely, since playing OT on the road without a reliable kicker is not really a coinflip) than we are to hit the 22-yard TD for the FG to be the right call.
So if you think the kicker was 40% to make it, we would need to be 20% to hit the TD (or a little less) to justify keeping the offense on the field. If the kicker is 80% to make it, you kick unless you have a 40% chance of the TD. Insert whatever numbers you want, but I don't the making the FG was twice as likely.
To get the probability of winning the game after kicking, you multiply the probability of making the kick by the probability of winning in OT.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dak Holliday
Plug in whatever numbers you want, but under the numbers we're discussing, it would be 16.5%. If we don't have a 16.5% chance of scoring the TD, try the kick. If we do, try a pass.
Or plug in better estimates that aren't just made up and run the calculation that way.
It would have been a perfect time for a fake field goal attempt.
I say we work on faking field goals for the remaining games.