If this were Southern we are having an entirely different conversation.
There are teams that received at large bids that have a higher RPI than Samford. They are no slouch. We got a strong 4 seed that has an RPI of 54.
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Personally I would start bednar game 2. That being said this is where a coach knowing his players comes into play. As I've said before in a tournament format at some point you have to gamble with your pitching and have the balls to do it. Some gamble early on and some wait. It can work either way and a coach knowing his players and the matchups is crucial in the decision making. If it works we got our rotation set for supers.
I understand the matchups and I see no problem with Lemonis and Foxhall decision. First off IF we don't hit better than what we did the last two games, it ain't gonna matter. Second of all, no way any of the three teams in our Regional are top Sec caliber teams. Now in saying this anything can happen if an opposing pitcher has his best day. It's pretty much a must to win the first game as well as the second I think. Actually I hope Bednar goes this distance, it really saves the pen then.
Samford 1-9 will be RH hitters if we throw MacLeod, so throwing a RHP would be smart.
However, Bednar does not need to be that RHP. If you're hell bent on throwing a righty, Brandon Smith, Cade Smith, or Stone Simmons would be better moves so you don't waste your best pitcher on the 4 seed.
If Samford were the type of 4 seed that many of them are, I would agree. Samford has an RPI in the 50s. So if you need to win one game against a team like that, you look at teams like Pitt, Maryland, UC Santa Barbara as comparables. You throwing Cade Smith against that?
The answer is hell no. Bednar is the right choice because of matchup. If you screw up and lose, that means it's possible Bednar or MacLeod don't pitch a game. That can't happen.
Samford had an RPI of 43 when they beat us in Tallahassee. So only 11 spots higher than now. Can't play around with them because if we lose this game, we have to win 4 more to get out of our regional. Do you feel comfortable with this team having to win 4 in a row to make it out of our regional? I don't.
The smart play is Bednar, MacLeod, Fristoe/Harding, Fristoe/Harding. Brandon Smith goes if there's a game 5.
Hmmm, yes pitching was bad but scoring only 3 runs in less than 18 innings is just as bad. We need to hit and score early to gain confidence. Also Samford didn’t see Bednar which I think is good for us. If the bottom of of our order doesn’t produce some it could be a bad weekend. Just my take. Too much talk about how easy our region draw is, heck we can’t or shouldn’t over look any team from now till the end
The winning streak thing is overblown to me. A comparable Central Michigan team came here on a long winning streak two years ago and went 1-2 with two blowout losses.
Samford plays in the 9th ranked RPI conference, Campbell's conference is 20th and VCU's is 21st. And Samford did go 20-10 in their league. I realize they've struggled against the SEC this year, I still don't think they are drastically different in quality from VCU and Campbell. Will not be shocked at all if Sunday night we are looking at a MSU/Samford Regional championship.
Some of you geniuses have short term memory loss. The last few weeks this team has been a complete Charlie Foxtrot. MetEdDawg said it best. No way this team is capable of winning 4 in a row. So you play the matchup game in a manner that gives you the best advantage in this first game. Then you continue in that same MO until you advance. Only way to approach it with this team, which is VERY limited. I have some sobering news for some of you and your delusional ideas. We are not that great. So it is going to take some real study to put us in an advantage in this tournament. That is what Lemonis is paid for.
Bednar game one would be as stupid a move as we could make. But that's what the analytics say because of the right handlers. Nevermind those guys couldn't hit Harding. It would be foolish unless you severely limit pitches and use him twice, which isn't happening.
Samford- SP's ERA is 5+ in weaker leagues. Been completely exposed vs P5 opponents
VCU- hasnt lost in 9 weeks. Has multiple wins vs 'P5 teams. Including Virginia who is not bad.
One of these is not like the other.
Lemon loves the analytics and I get that. They are important in baseball. But gut and knowing your team is important also. Curious to see what happens this weekend
They've both been very inconsistent all year, especially Macleod.....