buy or sell - Costello is a first round pick next year.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

10 wins is "special" for us. But we have been consistently winning 8 games a year. And now a down year for us is 6-6. That's pretty good relative to our history. If we maintain 8 wins in a typical year for us getting to 9-10 really isn't a stretch.

I normally give a range because there are always toss up games that can go one way or the other. I think our floor is about 6 wins and 10 is probably our ceiling. There's just more unknown with this team than other years.

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I'm talking reg season now ... no bowls. I think that's doable but it historically hasn't been likely. We won 9 once and 10 once under Mullen. Last year people were off-the-charts on our potential with a new unproven QB, a terrible coach, and decent turnover on Oline and Dlines. Made no sense.

Going into this year (before COVID) folks thinking 9 or 10 wins in some cases with new coach/staff and many question marks at several positions. We have good QB coming in but, last time I checked, this ain't singles tennis or golf.

Sell, way too many unknowns for this years team. Chemistry will be the mystery with players and coaches not getting a chance to be around each other. Also not knowing who is working out and staying in shape plus guys who need rehab and there progress. I think the teams with new Coaches and with younger players on roster will have the biggest problems especially early.

I'm in the crowd with a wait and see with Leach, not that I don't think he is a bad Coach, but playing in the Sec and west division is by far the toughest league in the country. Leach has been good at other places but I wouldn't grade him great. Maybe this lay off benefits him to be driven and prove he can be a winner or maybe he has become secure and feeling relaxed at Key West thinking at 58 or 59 years what retirement feels like. Ain't many Saban's worried about retirement or the drive.

sell ... if he was that good he would have already declared for this year

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Originally Posted by FISHDAWG

sell ... if he was that good he would have already declared for this year

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Well, I might have had he not gotten hurt and actually played year.

Sell. Mid Rd. selection if he has a good year. The draft is stacked with QBs next year. Lawrence, Fields, Book, Ehlinger, Newman, Trask, Mond, Buechele, etc.. I'm not saying it's a great class, but there's just a bunch of QBs that Costello would have to jump. He'd need a Joe Burrow type season to be a 1st round pick.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Sell. Mid Rd. selection if he has a good year. The draft is stacked with QBs next year. Lawrence, Fields, Book, Ehlinger, Newman, Trask, Mond, Buechele, etc.. I'm not saying it's a great class, but there's just a bunch of QBs that Costello would have to jump. He'd need a Joe Burrow type season to be a 1st round pick.

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He's more talented than all you listed except Lawrence & Fields. Your list actually makes me more convinced he has a real chance at being a 1st rounder

Not true on him needing a Burrow type year. Jordan Love had a bad year & still went in the 1st round.

Lawrence & Fields will both be top 5 picks & that sets the stage for 1-2 more QBs to go in the 1st round. Costello likely has the most raw talent of any of those other options

Book, Ehlinger, Trask, & Buechele are clearly not near as talented.

I'm not as sure on Mond & Newman. Mond has always confused me & I haven't see Newman play much

Sell - I think he's a good college QB but not sure he's an elite NFL prospect. However you never know exactly what they look for as the hype machine can go up and down. Look at Burrow vs. Fromm for example.

Found this article & it kinda lays out his draft status as it stood before he was injured.

It's just tough to say due to how bad the NFL is at evaluating QBs.

So long as he stays healthy, Costello will put up big numbers & throw the ball often along with being the most talented QB Leach has coached.

Odds are he won't be a first rounder. That's the safe pick. However, I think there is a path there.

https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/06...020-nfl-draft/

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Originally Posted by Irondawg

Sell - I think he's a good college QB but not sure he's an elite NFL prospect. However you never know exactly what they look for as the hype machine can go up and down. Look at Burrow vs. Fromm for example.

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Remember when I said Fromm wasn't a 5 star?

I was right.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Remember when I said Fromm wasn't a 5 star?

I was right.

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Such an odd statement. Fromm is about to be an nfl qb 3 years out of HS. And he wasn't a 5-star to start with

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.

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Originally Posted by PMDawg

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.

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We're having football in the fall.

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Originally Posted by KOdawg1

We're having football in the fall.

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Maybe. But if we do, I'm not sure there will be people in the stands. Hope you're right.

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Originally Posted by PMDawg

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.

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Relax. We're just spit balling.

Stop being so damn serious.

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Originally Posted by KOdawg1

We're having football in the fall.

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I say nfl will, bit I think college is hardly a given

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Originally Posted by KOdawg1

We're having football in the fall.

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Not gonna happen. Book it

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Found this article & it kinda lays out his draft status as it stood before he was injured.

It's just tough to say due to how bad the NFL is at evaluating QBs.

So long as he stays healthy, Costello will put up big numbers & throw the ball often along with being the most talented QB Leach has coached.

Odds are he won't be a first rounder. That's the safe pick. However, I think there is a path there.

https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/06...020-nfl-draft/

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You're right about how bad the NFL is at evaluating QBs. Even first rounders are coin flips at best. After that, finding a quality starting QB in the draft is like hitting the lottery.

With that said, I think Costello has a few things working in his favor:
1) He "looks" like an NFL QB, meaning he's big, tall, and has a strong arm. That still matters.
2) He'll (presumably) have two coaches attest to his leadership abilities and ability to read defenses. I've heard glowing remarks from Shaw about these two things and I'm going to assume Leach will agree.
3) He'll (presumably) have put up really productive numbers in two different systems and at State people will no doubt say he did it "where he didn't have a lot of help around him". The advancement of the Air Raid in the NFL has helped shake the "system QB" issue faced by people like Mahomes in the past.
4) He'll be doing whatever he does in "the hardest division in football". This could obviously work against him if he's NOT productive, but we're assuming he is in line with other Leach QBs.

The ingredients are there, he/Leach/WRs just have to put it together. If we win 8 or 9 games and he throws for 4500 with 40+ TDs and 10 picks, I think he'll be a first rounder. Those numbers sound crazy but not in anyway outlandish relative to other Leach QBs.

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Originally Posted by ZedFedder

Sell, but I say 2-3rd round.

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Ditto. 2nd at best due to virus impact on year, perception of MSU (although coming from CML will help as will his career at Stanford). and potentially WR issues.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

He's more talented than all you listed except Lawrence & Fields. Your list actually makes me more convinced he has a real chance at being a 1st rounder

Not true on him needing a Burrow type year. Jordan Love had a bad year & still went in the 1st round.

Lawrence & Fields will both be top 5 picks & that sets the stage for 1-2 more QBs to go in the 1st round. Costello likely has the most raw talent of any of those other options

Book, Ehlinger, Trask, & Buechele are clearly not near as talented.

I'm not as sure on Mond & Newman. Mond has always confused me & I haven't see Newman play much

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He might be more talented that's a completely opinionated statement. But he's playing in the toughest division in the toughest league. He has to go to Alabama and to LSU. If he plays well there then he'll definitely put himself into that conversation. That's why I make the Burrow comparison. Going into the year, Burrow was a 6th round pick and most mock drafts have Costello as the same thing. Burrow went into Texas and lit them up, played well in home games against Florida and Auburn and then went to Tuscaloosa and played great. Costello will rise if we rise. 7-8 win season probably puts him in the 3-5 rd. range. He's not going to be a first rounder unless we have a very special season.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

I say nfl will, bit I think college is hardly a given

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NFL certainly easier since they don't have to have 20-50K people on campus. Still up in the air but I heard other day some schools are already making plans to be open in fall. I'd say it is 75% right now school open in fall. If school is open, then there will be ball.