2019 Football Concerns

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach34

Dantzler is very good but losing Peters, Rayford, and our starting safeties is a big loss. That's alot of talent that played alot of snaps at Miss. State. Could the Secondary be very good this year? Sure. Is it a given? Hell no it's not. Our pass rush last year had alot to do with that

---

Lol, including Rayford is a stretch. Great gunner, great CB, not so much. Dude only had 13 tackles last year. Anyone with a brain knows Smitherman is the much better player, and it showed last year by his playing time and production.

I think it's a given that Dantzler and Smitherman are good. I guess you didn't read the article about Dantzler I linked.

Here is another one on Smitherman:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/se...ll-focus-stat/

And take a look at this:

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/stat...10506945847296

Smitherman and Dantzler both in the top 5 in the SEC.

You keep talking about our pass rush, and, yes, Sweat is virtually impossible to replace, but it's not like Rivers, Spencer, Jones, and Adams are chopped liver. You also have great LBs (Thompson and Gay) that combined for 8.5 of those aforementioned sacks last year. Guess how many sacks Simmons and Green combined for? 5.5.....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach007

Always love real talk and debate. C34 does it well. He is wrong alot.. but does it well.. :)


1- When you look at the numbers of Sweat vs Rivers, you will... WILL find that Rivers is 100% in line with Sweat. VERY MUCH SO. If you give Rivers the time on the field and the production level stays the same, Rivers will accomplish much of what Sweat did. On the other side, it is an upgrade. Autry is a great DT. Where we will have a Question is not with the starters, it's more so with the 3rd strings.

2- Not even true man. For example:

On Rivers, Here are his stats compared to Sweat.

Sweat- 53 tackles - 14 TFL- 11 sacks- 7 QBH
Rivers- 24 tackles - 7 TFL- 3 sacks- 4 QBH

Rivers did that with less than half the time.

Continuing with this, You state we had 39 sacks... You mentioned Sweat, Simmons and Green. They accounted, collectively, for 16 of those sacks. As I pointed out, Rivers is in line with Sweat, and Sweat had 11 of those 16 sacks. Couple that with the fact that Spenser would have started over Green baring injury, again.. We are not looking at a major drop off.

---

Rivers had 2.5 sacks- not 3. He is not the pass-rusher that Sweat was. He simply isnt. But he is better against the run than Sweat was. And no- Spencer was not starting ahead of Green either.

We have a talent drop at DT. We wont rush the passer from DE the way we did last year. Pass pro by opposing offenses dont have to deal with 2 1st round picks and a 6th round pick all at once anymore (but no doubt that Rivers will be a draft pick this April). Because the pass rush wont command the OL to double guys as much- it will make it harder for the LB's/Safeties to get sacks. The offenses will have people to pick these guys up instead of them coming free because of the double teams. That simply means we will have to cover longer on the back end because we won't be forcing the quick throws we did in 2018.

Something to watch in 2019

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by preachermatt83

JoeVester... lol. I like it.

---

Wipe your chin.

Quote:

---

Dantzler is very good but losing Peters, Rayford, and our starting safeties is a big loss.

---

Again, no offense, but Rayford was way down the list compared to what we return. Morgan's number were better.

I agree w 34 that our pass rush won't be the same this year, but we will be talented up front. Our DEs are as potentially good as any group in the SEC. Our DTs are talented but young. This will mean that the backside of the D will have to cover longer.

We did lose our safeties, but I think we will have just as good a group there IF we stay healthy.

IMO, we upgrade at LB by returning all the starters and we probably upgrade at CB.

Overall, that has the potential to give us a defense that is almost as good as last year. I predict we will be in the top 10-20 range.

However to win 8 or more, our offense has to improve. We start with a talented, experienced and deep OL. You can make a lot of mistakes on offense and things still turn out ok.

As with our safeties, we can't stand injuries with our RBs. If they stay healthy, we are good to great.

I agree that our receivers will be better without the 100 mph fastballs coming there way. They should improve just from experience if nothing else. Also, I look for Whop to break out in his second year.

QB is a question mark because we don't have a true starter coming back and you never know until the game is on their shoulders. The good news is that we have Stevens, who is well aware of Moorhead's offense and KT who has a lot of talent. Remember that he was a state champion in LA. QBs who find a way to win often continue to do just that.

I believe the offense will be significantly improved IF the RBs stay healthy.

Finally, I have hope for the special teams. It seems our ST coach is neither a great coach or recruiter, based on last year's production on both. However, he did bring in a solid punter from his old job and that could make us better.

7 wins are in the cards: 4 out of conference, KY, Ark and UM. Everything else will be tough. To win more either we have to outcoach someone or someone has to have a down year.

8 wins will make me happy enough this year, and that is where I think we will end up. More would be a tribute to Moorhead. Less than 7 would mean we have problems.

Quote:

---

Rivers had 2.5 sacks- not 3. He is not the pass-rusher that Sweat was. He simply isnt.

---

We will disagree. QBH .. in about a 3rd of the Playing time, Rivers hurried the QB 4 times. That's 3 less than Sweat who played way more than Rivers.

Quote:

---

We have a talent drop at DT. We wont rush the passer from DE the way we did last year. Pass pro by opposing offenses dont have to deal with 2 1st round picks and a 6th round pick all at once anymore

---

You were just shown that 2 of those people you are referring to combined for 5.5 sacks all season. You were just shown that in a back up role, Rivers had more than half the QBHs that Sweat had. Adams had 4 too. To say that we won't rush the passer the way we did last year is wrong.

If you want to break down even more:

Sweat/Green combined QBH.... 8
Rivers/Adams--- 8

Rivers numbers are actually in line with Sweat based on PT and ACTUALLY AS GOOD as Green who started. Rivers had more tackles for loss and more QHR in a backup role.

Call me crazy, but I don't think 9-3 is that far-fetched given this scenario:

ULL- W
USM- W
KSU- W
UK- W
AU- L
UT- W
LSU- W
A&M- L
Ark- W
Bama- L
Abilene- W
Ole Miss- W

We should be heavy favorites in the first 4.

AU is a wildcard, but I will chalk it up as a loss on the road.

We are going to beat UT. They just aren't that good. We are a better program. It's that simple.

I predict we beat LSU. That game has been tightly contested in recent years. We also get up for that game and it's at home. Also helping us is that we play them relatively early and hopefully Emery and Johnson are still getting their feet wet. Also, LSU's weakness this year is OL, and that plays to our favor with DT and stopping the run being a question mark.

A&M is much like AU, but I will chalk up a loss due to it being on the road.

Arkansas is like UT. We are just better.

Bama is a loss.

Abilene and Ole Miss we should be heavy favorites.

Even if I am wrong about the LSU game, it's not crazy to think we can't beat either AU or A&M or both.

You go 2-2 in that AU, UT, LSU, A&M stretch and you have 9 wins. Hell, go 1-3 and you have 8.

We should be heavy to decent favorites in 7 games: ULL, USM, KSU, UK, Ark, Abilene, Ole Miss. UT will probably be around a pick em. The other games aside from Bama we will probably be less than 7.5 point underdogs.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Covercorner2

Call me crazy, but I don't think 9-3 is that far-fetched given this scenario:

ULL- W
USM- W
KSU- W
UK- W
AU- L
UT- W
LSU- W
A&M- L
Ark- W
Bama- L
Abilene- W
Ole Miss- W

We should be heavy favorites in the first 4.

AU is a wildcard, but I will chalk it up as a loss on the road.

We are going to beat UT. They just aren't that good. We are a better program. It's that simple.

I predict we beat LSU. That game has been tightly contested in recent years. We also get up for that game and it's at home. Also helping us is that we play them relatively early and hopefully Emery and Johnson are still getting their feet wet. Also, LSU's weakness this year is OL, and that plays to our favor with DT and stopping the run being a question mark.

A&M is much like AU, but I will chalk up a loss due to it being on the road.

Arkansas is like UT. We are just better.

Bama is a loss.

Abilene and Ole Miss we should be heavy favorites.

Even if I am wrong about the LSU game, it's not crazy to think we can't beat either AU or A&M or both.

You go 2-2 in that AU, UT, LSU, A&M stretch and you have 9 wins. Hell, go 1-3 and you have 8....

---

You have a lot more faith than me... with the best defense in the country last season, we were 1-3 in sec road games and only scored 10 points in the 3 games vs teams with a winning record

Here's my opinion on this season:

Until we know if Tommy is Tommy Boy or Tommy Gunn, we don't know shit about this team.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msstate7

You have a lot more faith than me... with the best defense in the country last season, we were 1-3 in sec road games and only scored 10 points in the 3 games vs teams with a winning record

---

Yep... But that was that offense. :)


We have:

- Better OL
- Better WRs
- Better QB (not that Fitz was bad.... just a bad system to change into over night)
- More seasoned RBs.
- double threat on occasions with KT and Stevens out there at the same time.


I'm super excited!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Here's my opinion on this season:

Until we know if Tommy is Tommy Boy or Tommy Gunn, we don't know shit about this team.

---

Party true. If he is Tommy Boy, KT will start so we do know that

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msstate7

You have a lot more faith than me... with the best defense in the country last season, we were 1-3 in sec road games and only scored 10 points in the 3 games vs teams with a winning record

---

... and we still won 8 games. This year we should be better on offense, have LSU @ home, and swap UF with UT.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach007

We will disagree. QBH .. in about a 3rd of the Playing time, Rivers hurried the QB 4 times. That's 3 less than Sweat who played way more than Rivers.



You were just shown that 2 of those people you are referring to combined for 5.5 sacks all season. You were just shown that in a back up role, Rivers had more than half the QBHs that Sweat had. Adams had 4 too. To say that we won't rush the passer the way we did last year is wrong.

If you want to break down even more:

Sweat/Green combined QBH.... 8
Rivers/Adams--- 8

Rivers numbers are actually in line with Sweat based on PT and ACTUALLY AS GOOD as Green who started. Rivers had more tackles for loss and more QHR in a backup role.

---

You can't forget what impact Simmons had on the pass rush. He was probably the one guy who made the defense go from Great to Amazing. I think Rivers/Spencer/Adams is probably overall as good as Sweat/Green but you do lose having Rivers as a backup. We have recruited really well so hopefully someone steps up.

As far as the secondary, I think Dantzler/Smitherman with another year development will be better than Dantzler/Peters. I also think Cole/Landrews will be overall better than Abram/McLaurin. Cole was being touted as the best safety before his injury. While I don't know if he will be the leader that Abram was, he apparently has that type of talent level.

Our defense will come down to how our DTs step up. Everything else is there for a top 10-20 type of defense.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Here's my opinion on this season:

Until we know if Tommy is Tommy Boy or Tommy Gunn, we don't know shit about this team.

---

Not necessarily. We know we will be equal if not better at OL, RB, WR, and TE. We also know we already have a guy similar to Fitz on the roster. Tommy being good would just be gravy on top of what we had last year....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msstate7

You have a lot more faith than me... with the best defense in the country last season, we were 1-3 in sec road games and only scored 10 points in the 3 games vs teams with a winning record

---

Our schedule does set up as well as you could hope. We can win 7 or maybe 8 with the offense from last year. Other than replacing Fitz, we should improve overall with another year in the system.

WRs - can't get worse and you would hope another year is a big help for them.
RBs - losing Aeris sucks but from reports, Kylin is stepping up and Gibson is back. We also have that great Juco RB along with the probable redshirt from AL.
TEs - no loss so should be better
OL - Losing Jenkins sucks but we do have an adequate replacement who will probably be drafted. We also have the guys to move around and get into their more natural position like Eiland and Reese. This position should be improved.
QBs - Replacing Fitz who didn't get live reps until August and then was suspended for the first game. We brought in Stevens who has been in Moorhead's system for 3 years and was one of the better QBs at the Manning Camp per the director of the Senior Bowl. It is now coming out that JoeMo was adapting his offense because Fitz just wasn't catching on. He was also making slow decisions which was turning 15 yard plans into 5 yard plays. Hopefully Stevens along with another year in the system for KT remedies that.

If nothing else, UK lost more than most teams off that great defense to go with the top Defensive player in the country. Unless Auburn, UT, Ark, UK, or A&M turn into a top 25 defense then our offense should be more than adequate to win 7-9 games. We also get LSU at home which helps.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Covercorner2

... and we still won 8 games. This year we should be better on offense, have LSU @ home, and swap UF with UT.

---

And 2 home games I consider sure losses, Bama and LSU. We have 2 really tough road games in aTm and auburn, and we have a toss up with tenn

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach007

We will disagree. QBH .. in about a 3rd of the Playing time, Rivers hurried the QB 4 times. That's 3 less than Sweat who played way more than Rivers.



You were just shown that 2 of those people you are referring to combined for 5.5 sacks all season. You were just shown that in a back up role, Rivers had more than half the QBHs that Sweat had. Adams had 4 too. To say that we won't rush the passer the way we did last year is wrong.

If you want to break down even more:

Sweat/Green combined QBH.... 8
Rivers/Adams--- 8

Rivers numbers are actually in line with Sweat based on PT and ACTUALLY AS GOOD as Green who started. Rivers had more tackles for loss and more QHR in a backup role.

---

Because Simmons was doubled damn near all the time. Most protections are 5 guys- 6 a good bit- and rarely 7. So if 2 are blocking Simmons- that leaves 1 on 1 with the other 3. We dont have a DT that will command a double team this year. That frees up an OL player to help picking up LB's or helping somewhere else. Being that teams dont have to double our DT's- they will also have fewer 6 and 7 man protections to get the RB out in the route- forcing more coverage out of Gay and Thompson. Makes it easier for the QB to throw hot when he has a 5th guy in the route in case of blitz.

Simmons dominance inside is what led to sack numbers by alot of other guys. That is what you arent getting

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

You can't forget what impact Simmons had on the pass rush. He was probably the one guy who made the defense go from Great to Amazing. I think Rivers/Spencer/Adams is probably overall as good as Sweat/Green but you do lose having Rivers as a backup. We have recruited really well so hopefully someone steps up.
.

---

We are 2 plus deep on the DE. Rivers/ Adams/Spencer/Jones with 3rd from Odom etc.

Quote:

---

As far as the secondary, I think Dantzler/Smitherman with another year development will be better than Dantzler/Peters. I also think Cole/Landrews will be overall better than Abram/McLaurin. Cole was being touted as the best safety before his injury. While I don't know if he will be the leader that Abram was, he apparently has that type of talent level.

---

I agree. Cole/Landrews are going to shock people.

Quote:

---

Our defense will come down to how our DTs step up. Everything else is there for a top 10-20 type of defense.

---

Agree.. it will be Autry, and from what I am told Kendall Jones (sr) will be passed by Lovett because Lovett is that good. Jackson is going back to his natural position on the DL because the depth on offense is good.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Coach34

Because Simmons was doubled damn near all the time. Most protections are 5 guys- 6 a good bit- and rarely 7. So if 2 are blocking Simmons- that leaves 1 on 1 with the other 3. We dont have a DT that will command a double team this year. That frees up an OL player to help picking up LB's or helping somewhere else. Being that teams dont have to double our DT's- they will also have fewer 6 and 7 man protections to get the RB out in the route- forcing more coverage out of Gay and Thompson. Makes it easier for the QB to throw hot when he has a 5th guy in the route in case of blitz.

Simmons dominance inside is what led to sack numbers by alot of other guys. That is what you arent getting

---

So is it safe to say that last years sack numbers are inflated because of Simmons? It's laughable that you think the corners were better last year than this year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msstate7

And 2 home games I consider sure losses, Bama and LSU. We have 2 really tough road games in aTm and auburn, and we have a toss up with tenn

---

In what planet is LSU @ home a sure loss?

Regardless my point is it should be an easier game than last year on the road.

Same with UT vs. UF.