Men?s basketball prediction

One and done in the NCAA. Solid year. Keep moving forward.

MSU fans last decade: I just want a winner that can make the dance. I'd love that.

MSU basketball: Here's a winning team going to the dance.

MSU fans: I hate this team.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

MSU fans last decade: I just want a winner that can make the dance. I'd love that.

MSU basketball: Here's a winning team going to the dance.

MSU fans: I hate this team.

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We probably said the same about a bunch of our teams under Stans at this point in the year...and still, every time, we got pumped once the Tourney actually got here.

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Originally Posted by smootness

We probably said the same about a bunch of our teams under Stans at this point in the year...and still, every time, we got pumped once the Tourney actually got here.

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I agree but the difference is we experienced it every year with Stans. This program went to the absolute bottom & we have seen this type of success in over a decade. I know these guys can be frustrating to watch but we're 21-9 & a 6 seed in the tourney. We haven't had a seed this high since '04. You're probably right about the excitement that will come when our name is called on selection Sunday. I just hate the lack of support this team has gotten. This is the least supported good team that MSU has ever had in any sport by a large margin.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

I agree but the difference is we experienced it every year with Stans. This program went to the absolute bottom & we have seen this type of success in over a decade. I know these guys can be frustrating to watch but we're 21-9 & a 6 seed in the tourney. We haven't had a seed this high since '04. You're probably right about the excitement that will come when our name is called on selection Sunday. I just hate the lack of support this team has gotten. This is the least supported good team that MSU has ever had in any sport by a large margin.

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I know, I get it. I think that boils down to two things: 1) the way we started SEC play, and 2) the fact that we haven't really beaten anybody that good.

The way we started SEC play took the wind out of our sails and caused us to think, 'Ok, here we go again,' and then we haven't beaten anybody good since to get that momentum back. I think if we'd started something like 6-3 in the SEC, we would have had serious momentum that we wouldn't have lost as easily, and I think if we had taken out somebody like Kentucky or Tennessee, or Auburn on the road, it would have made people go, 'Ok, maybe we actually do have something.'

It genuinely is easy to forget how many wins this team has and that they are one of the best 25 or so teams in the country because it just doesn't feel like they are.

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Originally Posted by smootness

I know, I get it. I think that boils down to two things: 1) the way we started SEC play, and 2) the fact that we haven't really beaten anybody that good.

The way we started SEC play took the wind out of our sails and caused us to think, 'Ok, here we go again,' and then we haven't beaten anybody good since to get that momentum back. I think if we'd started something like 6-3 in the SEC, we would have had serious momentum that we wouldn't have lost as easily, and I think if we had taken out somebody like Kentucky or Tennessee, or Auburn on the road, it would have made people go, 'Ok, maybe we actually do have something.'

It genuinely is easy to forget how many wins this team has and that they are one of the best 25 or so teams in the country because it just doesn't feel like they are.

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We're a top 25 team with nick and peters. Unfortunately, nick is gone and peters has gone on strike since nick's suspension. We have no pg right now. This is why I'm frustrated.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

MSU fans last decade: I just want a winner that can make the dance. I'd love that.

MSU basketball: Here's a winning team going to the dance.

MSU fans: I hate this team.

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This should have been the first post of the thread....
Exacatly my point

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Originally Posted by smootness

I know, I get it. I think that boils down to two things: 1) the way we started SEC play, and 2) the fact that we haven't really beaten anybody that good.

The way we started SEC play took the wind out of our sails and caused us to think, 'Ok, here we go again,' and then we haven't beaten anybody good since to get that momentum back. I think if we'd started something like 6-3 in the SEC, we would have had serious momentum that we wouldn't have lost as easily, and I think if we had taken out somebody like Kentucky or Tennessee, or Auburn on the road, it would have made people go, 'Ok, maybe we actually do have something.'

It genuinely is easy to forget how many wins this team has and that they are one of the best 25 or so teams in the country because it just doesn't feel like they are.

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Again the excuses don’t equal the reality.
I think we have 8 quad one wins , which is among the best in that category.. so how is that not beating anyone ?

If there is one reason to hope, it could be Holman was outstanding in OOC games. Hopefully he just struggles vs sec teams

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Originally Posted by Ari Gold

It?s pretty amazing how we as a fan base are able to suck the ****ing life out of making it to the Dance for the first time in over a decade and the field hasn?t even been announced yet ..

Here is an idea:

Enjoy the next few weeks knowing we are playing meaningful games In March ..
Bottom line is no one knows what?s going to happen come the dance
Thats the beauty of college basketball . I?m sure all of you honks had Loyola Chicago in the final 4 last year or USCe in the final four in 2017 ect...
Again this isn?t ****ing football , where right now we can prob pencil in 3 or possible all 4 of the teams in the playoffs next year and it?s March

We might lose the first game , we may make it to the elite 8.

So either enjoy the ride the next few weeks. If you don?t give a **** or want to bitch or complain about losing 2 road games agaisnt 2 quad 1 opponents , or I don?t like CBH or I hate watching this team play , or whatever ..take that shit somewhere else and let the few on here that enjoy March madness and us finally being apart of it enjoy it .

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This is a thread about making accurate predictions about how our men?s team is gonna do.
If men?s basketball predictions isn?t in ur wheel house then this thread doesnt concern you so no need to post.

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Originally Posted by Ari Gold

Again the excuses don’t equal the reality.
I think we have 8 quad one wins , which is among the best in that category.. so how is that not beating anyone ?

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Because fans don't even know what a Quad 1 win is, much less how many we have. I'm relating all this to fan excitement. I know we have some good wins, but we haven't knocked off anybody that's going to get anyone excited.

Here are our 8 Quad 1 wins:
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Wofford
Cincinnati
Clemson
Dayton
St. Mary's

Meanwhile, our 6 Quad 1 losses:
Tennessee
Auburn
Kentucky
LSU
Alabama
Kentucky

So only 3 have come in 2019, and they're against OM (who we split with), Auburn (who we split with), and Arkansas.

It's not that hard to see that our fans aren't going to view all of these as big wins, and they're going to look at those 2 lists and say, 'Yeah, we beat mediocre teams and lose to all the good teams.' Which actually isn't that inaccurate.

We are one of those teams who has benefited from a very smart OOC schedule that has worked out for us, so we're more of a 'good resume' team than 'oh man, that team is dangerous' team.

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Originally Posted by smootness

Because fans don't even know what a Quad 1 win is, much less how many we have. I'm relating all this to fan excitement. I know we have some good wins, but we haven't knocked off anybody that's going to get anyone excited.

Here are our 8 Quad 1 wins:
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Wofford
Cincinnati
Clemson
Dayton
St. Mary's

Meanwhile, our 6 Quad 1 losses:
Tennessee
Auburn
Kentucky
LSU
Alabama
Kentucky

So only 3 have come in 2019, and they're against OM (who we split with), Auburn (who we split with), and Arkansas.

It's not that hard to see that our fans aren't going to view all of these as big wins, and they're going to look at those 2 lists and say, 'Yeah, we beat mediocre teams and lose to all the good teams.' Which actually isn't that inaccurate.

We are one of those teams who has benefited from a very smart OOC schedule that has worked out for us, so we're more of a 'good resume' team than 'oh man, that team is dangerous' team.

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thank you Smoot, you've summarized my views nicely. I'm excited that we're in the tournament, but I see ZERO reason to think we can beat a top 25 team, and it's 50/50 we can beat a #25-35 team. I see 0 reason to hope we can make it to the sweet 16, much less beyond it. Field of 32 would be a good year, one and done is solid (if a bit of a let down given this team's potential). Unlike the baseball team last year which had the great top 10 record vs top teams, I don't see any reason to think we can upset a 1-4 seed

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Originally Posted by smootness

Because fans don't even know what a Quad 1 win is, much less how many we have. I'm relating all this to fan excitement. I know we have some good wins, but we haven't knocked off anybody that's going to get anyone excited.

Here are our 8 Quad 1 wins:
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Wofford
Cincinnati
Clemson
Dayton
St. Mary's

Meanwhile, our 6 Quad 1 losses:
Tennessee
Auburn
Kentucky
LSU
Alabama
Kentucky

So only 3 have come in 2019, and they're against OM (who we split with), Auburn (who we split with), and Arkansas.

It's not that hard to see that our fans aren't going to view all of these as big wins, and they're going to look at those 2 lists and say, 'Yeah, we beat mediocre teams and lose to all the good teams.' Which actually isn't that inaccurate.

We are one of those teams who has benefited from a very smart OOC schedule that has worked out for us, so we're more of a 'good resume' team than 'oh man, that team is dangerous' team.

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And 1 Quad 1 win without Nick.

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Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew

MSU fans last decade: I just want a winner that can make the dance. I'd love that.

MSU basketball: Here's a winning team going to the dance.

MSU fans: I hate this team.

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I think Thunder and Lightning had a lot of good points in their recent show. This team is hard to watch, doesn't show much emotion, and thus doesn't drum up a lot of excitement. That combined with the inconsistent play can lead to the fanbase being frustrated. Out of the teams we have beat, who is the best win? Are any of them considered better than MSU?

I don't see why we can't be happy about making the tournament, but be concerned on our performance as well.

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Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

I think Thunder and Lightning had a lot of good points in their recent show. This team is hard to watch, doesn't show much emotion, and thus doesn't drum up a lot of excitement. That combined with the inconsistent play can lead to the fanbase being frustrated. Out of the teams we have beat, who is the best win? Are any of them considered better than MSU?

I don't see why we can't be happy about making the tournament, but be concerned on our performance as well.

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I guess my 2 favorite or what I consider best wins are AU and Cincy. But the guys I follow who know college basketball think Cincy is trash this year. So I guess I will go with the win at Ole Miss.

I would say Wofford is our best win. They have a 14 NET ranking and we beat them by 11. And since margin of victory matters in NET up to 10, I'd say this is the best.
Next would either be Auburn at home by 8 or Ole Miss on the road. I would rank Cincinnati, Saint Mary's and Clemson all about the same.... Then Dayton then Arkansas.

We lost to Tennessee on the road and Kentucky on the road, just like everyone else who played them at their house with the only exception being LSU beat Kentucky. We lost a close one to Kentucky at home and one to LSU that was pretty close too.

We really don't have a bad loss either. Our worst loss is probably to South Carolina on the road and everyone knows how tough SEC games are on the road.

I know I'm all over the place here, but our resume is really good. 8 Q1 wins. 0 Q3/Q4 losses.

If we're playing good, we can definitely make it to the sweet 16. If we're playing great, we could make it to the elite 8, but my prediction would be win the first round lose in the 2nd. And if we're play bad in round 1 we might lose that game.

Beating UT at UT this year would have been equal to beating Bama in football. They are one of the best at home in the country and they are a top 8 team no matter where the game is. It really sucks that we couldn't hold on to the lead against LSU in those last couple of minutes. That would have changed a lot of people's outlook.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

This is a thread about making accurate predictions about how our men?s team is gonna do.
If men?s basketball predictions isn?t in ur wheel house then this thread doesnt concern you so no need to post.

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When the bracket comes out and I see who we are matched up with I will give my predictions. Kind of hard to do that now.
If we get a good second round draw than I think we will get to sweet 16

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Originally Posted by smootness

Because fans don't even know what a Quad 1 win is, much less how many we have. I'm relating all this to fan excitement. I know we have some good wins, but we haven't knocked off anybody that's going to get anyone excited.

Here are our 8 Quad 1 wins:
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Wofford
Cincinnati
Clemson
Dayton
St. Mary's

Meanwhile, our 6 Quad 1 losses:
Tennessee
Auburn
Kentucky
LSU
Alabama
Kentucky

So only 3 have come in 2019, and they're against OM (who we split with), Auburn (who we split with), and Arkansas.

It's not that hard to see that our fans aren't going to view all of these as big wins, and they're going to look at those 2 lists and say, 'Yeah, we beat mediocre teams and lose to all the good teams.' Which actually isn't that inaccurate.

We are one of those teams who has benefited from a very smart OOC schedule that has worked out for us, so we're more of a 'good resume' team than 'oh man, that team is dangerous' team.

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Look at the road wins, neutral site wins, and right now our worse loss is at USCe and maybe home loss to OM.
Once again.. take off the football mentality. I had rather be a good resume tram than one that is back dooring their way into the tourney ...
We have proved we can beat good teams and tourney teams
Home courts are a big deal.. those are gone now. A lot of teams ranked higher than us have huge issues winning road games. You get teams out of their own building lots of things can happen
Anyone who thinks this team CANT win a 2nd round game in the tourney is completely wrong . And that’s not saying we will
We might go one and done. Ask last years Virginia team what can happen come tourney time

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Originally Posted by Ari Gold

Look at the road wins, neutral site wins, and right now our worse loss is at USCe and maybe home loss to OM.
Once again.. take off the football mentality. I had rather be a good resume tram than one that is back dooring their way into the tourney ...
We have proved we can beat good teams and tourney teams
Home courts are a big deal.. those are gone now. A lot of teams ranked higher than us have huge issues winning road games. You get teams out of their own building lots of things can happen
Anyone who thinks this team CANT win a 2nd round game in the tourney is completely wrong . And that’s not saying we will
We might go one and done. Ask last years Virginia team what can happen come tourney time

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I didn't say we can't win a 2nd round game. I didn't say anything about the quality of this team or their likelihood of winning any future games.

I'm talking solely about fan excitement here. I agree that we lack truly bad losses, though we've definitely had a couple disappointing ones. But lacking bad losses is not going to get fans excited like winning big games will.

And yes, we've beaten some good teams. But when the good team is Wofford, fans are not going to care about that. 2 of our 8 Q1 wins are against teams outside the top 50, they just came on the road. Again, fans aren't really going to care about those. We have lost 5 of our 6 biggest games this year, and the one we won...was against Wofford. There just hasn't been a ton to get people really excited. Again, for us it's about the whole body of work and not anything specific or individual. Well, a 'body of work' team won't get people pumped, generally speaking.

ETA: When you switch to RPI instead of NET, our Q1 record drops to 5-7. I know NET is what matters and not RPI, so this doesn't mean anything for our seeding or Tournament prospects, but it's something else to consider.