Why College Baseball RPI is Flawed

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Originally Posted by smootness

You compared a team with a #25 RPI and the #2 SOS with a team with a #2 RPI and the #25 SOS. In that case, beating the team that is 2nd in the RPI is still going to help you more. Because they obviously have a much better record themselves than the team with the #25 RPI, and opponent winning % counts more than opponents' opponent winning %, which is where their SOS comes into play.

And yes, if the #2 RPI team has the #25 SOS, they will absolutely have a phenomenal record. And definitely a much better record than the #25 team with a #2 SOS.

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So you think the higher the RPI the better the record will be? SMH. You're confusing a theoretical example and make way, way too many assumptions in these statements. Curious how you explain these situations...

Maryland- 18-15, RPI 43, SOS 16, 54.5%WP
Arizona - 20-12, RPI 64, SOS 73, 62.5%WP

These 2 teams are 21 RPI spots apart and see nothing obvious about the higher RPI team having a better record.

Another...

Bryant - 20-6, RPI 29, SOS 165, 77% WP
FSU - 22-8, RPI 5, SOS 1, 73% WP

My whole reaction to this thread and RPI is, huh? WTF? Just win and everything will be okay.

Road games matter: Minnesota is 17-10, highest RPI team they've played is 36 one time and they lost, and they are ranked 19th in RPI. But 22 of their 27 games have been away from home. They also have some pretty ugly losses mixed in.

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Originally Posted by Ralph

So you think the higher the RPI the better the record will be? SMH. You're confusing a theoretical example and make way, way too many assumptions in these statements. Curious how you explain these situations...

Maryland- 18-15, RPI 43, SOS 16, 54.5%WP
Arizona - 20-12, RPI 64, SOS 73, 62.5%WP

These 2 teams are 21 RPI spots apart and see nothing obvious about the higher RPI team having a better record.

Another...

Bryant - 20-6, RPI 29, SOS 165, 77% WP
FSU - 22-8, RPI 5, SOS 1, 73% WP

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What on earth gave you the idea that I think RPI is based 100% on your record? Of course it isn't. I was comparing the two examples that you yourself used. You said it would be better to beat the #25 RPI team with a #2 SOS than the #2 RPI team with a #25 SOS, and that is incorrect. It is definitely better to beat the #2 RPI team in that case. Why? Because the #2 RPI team will absolutely have a much better record in that scenario than the #25 RPI team, and your opponents' record counts more than your opponents' opponents' record. That is simply a fact.

Use the exact same examples there to logically assess your prior example. If SOS is so important that a team with a worse record can have a much better RPI based on SOS, then it also follows that if you have a worse SOS than another team but are much higher in the RPI, you have a much better record than they do.

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Originally Posted by smootness

What on earth gave you the idea that I think RPI is based 100% on your record? Of course it isn't. I was comparing the two examples that you yourself used. You said it would be better to beat the #25 RPI team with a #2 SOS than the #2 RPI team with a #25 SOS, and that is incorrect. It is definitely better to beat the #2 RPI team in that case. Why? Because the #2 RPI team will absolutely have a much better record in that scenario than the #25 RPI team, and your opponents' record counts more than your opponents' opponents' record. That is simply a fact.

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Simply not true at all. A team with a #2 RPI can have the same or worse record as the #25 RPI team. See Bryant/FSU example. FSU's RPI is #5, but Bryant's record is 4% better while being RPI #29. Why is FSU's RPI higher than Bryant's? Bc of FSU's SOS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smootness

Use the exact same examples there to logically assess your prior example. If SOS is so important that a team with a worse record can have a much better RPI based on SOS, then it also follows that if you have a worse SOS than another team but are much higher in the RPI, you have a much better record than they do.

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This is obvious. What you're not considering, using the Bryant/FSU example again, is the difference between FSU's win% and Bryant's win% is only 4% in Bryant's favor. While the difference in their SOS's is more like 15-20% in FSU's favor.