My prediction thread on this incarnation of our beloved Maroons

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

Wait, so do you think we've peaked in the 7-9 win range or do you think we'll become a consistent 10 win team with CDM?

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peaked means you will never go any higher...Miss State is only capable of being a 7-9 win program. That's all we can do consistently.

Do I think Mullen can have a special season and win 10 games one year? Ab-so-****ing-lutely.
Do I think Dan Mullen can win 10+ games for an extended period? Hayyyyyyle naw

Do I think Mark Hudspeth coaching at State can have a special season and win 10 games? Probably
Do I think Mark Hudspeth could win 10+ games at State for an extended period of time? Hayyyyyyle naw

""There are going to be other really bad months. There are going to be prospects who go through difficult months, half-seasons and seasons. And you think, 'Hey, you thought these guys were going to be impact guys, and now they're scuffling. What's going on" There are going to be times we have really difficult times in the big leagues. Unfortunately, just like a player's development, the progress of an organization isn't always linear."


and this is what people cant grasp too often- and insist on change before a job is done

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Originally Posted by Coach34

""There are going to be other really bad months. There are going to be prospects who go through difficult months, half-seasons and seasons. And you think, 'Hey, you thought these guys were going to be impact guys, and now they're scuffling. What's going on" There are going to be times we have really difficult times in the big leagues. Unfortunately, just like a player's development, the progress of an organization isn't always linear."


and this is what people cant grasp too often- and insist on change before a job is done

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BINGO

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Originally Posted by Coach34

peaked means you will never go any higher...Miss State is only capable of being a 7-9 win program. That's all we can do consistently.

Do I think Mullen can have a special season and win 10 games one year? Ab-so-****ing-lutely.
Do I think Dan Mullen can win 10+ games for an extended period? Hayyyyyyle naw

Do I think Mark Hudspeth coaching at State can have a special season and win 10 games? Probably
Do I think Mark Hudspeth could win 10+ games at State for an extended period of time? Hayyyyyyle naw

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gotcha. and I agree. we will have a 9+ win season again under CDM, if he's here. BUT, outside of the occasional high and low, we've possibly peaked as a program. At least with this administration.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

And when I see people post this I cant help but laugh and wonder how damn stupid they are.

Jackie's 1st 5 years:

7-5
7-5
3-6-2
8-4
3-8

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Let's get this right. IMO Jackie shouldn't get to call the Langhamgate Bama loss a victory even if the history books do...

And Hack brings up a good keyword- administration

The football program is so much more than just the coach- Gene Chizik is the poster boy for that.

It's no coincidence the SEC has gone on this great run with Mike Slive as Commish. He stopped most of the tattling on each other- and now the SEC is reaching unprecedented heights. With the SEC office basically telling the NCAA to **** off, you've seen the bigger schools bolster their compliance offices to protect themselves further. But not lil ol State- we have a former PE teacher heading up compliance.

Other Presidents and AD's talk education, but their actions are all about preserving football and raking in the money. When we get a little better at President, AD, and Compliance- football will get better also

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

gotcha. and I agree. we will have a 9+ win season again under CDM, if he's here. BUT, outside of the occasional high and low, we've possibly peaked as a program. At least with this administration.

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You know I agree with your premise... but I just hate using the term "peaked". It corresponds to stagnation and otherwise a program that's losing fire and energy... it's counterproductive to what we're trying to do. "Still building" is how it should be phrased IMO.

What Mullen has done(and continues to do) is raise the floor for our program -- and he did that part basically immediately. What we're seeing now is that it simply takes alot longer to raise the ceiling, especially given our positioning in the current landscape of college football(secWest)...

Virginia Tech's "ceiling" pre-Beamer was 8-9 wins(exactly like MSU). It took him to his SEVENTH year to even reach that ceiling(Mullen did it in year 2 and year 4 for us). Took him 2 more to raise that ceiling and win 10 for the first time. So, it took one of college football's greats 9 years to surpass their "ceiling" for the first time. IN THE BIG EAST. After he broke through that first time, he's done it 12 more times in the 17 years since in two different conferences.

I could go into how long it took Holtz and Spurrier at South Carolina. Guys that are Hall-Of-Famers. Were people saying Spurrier had "peaked" there in year 4 and year 5? I don't really remember. But I do know that if they did, they look really foolish now...

It's total insanity to me that our fans EXPECT Mullen to be FAR SUPERIOR to Holtz, Spurrier, and Beamer in actual on-field production. Make no mistake -- he's been better than all 3 on the field in this "building" stage with MORE cards stacked against him. That's not to say that he's ACTUALLY better than any of them because he probably isn't and won't be. However, it's just crazy that as we follow those teams' blueprints for success(doing it better than they initially did), we consider ourselves peaked, begin to lose energy in the program, and a growing minority are ready to go in another direction.

agree with you engie, bu under this administration we will be stagnant. until that changes and they get someone in house who cares more about the long term planning than they do a quick pay day, we will cause ourselves to "peak" around 7-8 wins a year (on average).

The Oregon model is the right way IMO. Get the W's and your brand increases in value. That's how to build a long term successful program. Oregon had a rather large investor, but with the new facility and stadium expansion we've made the necessary investments already.

Good point. Oregon was pretty much nothing until somebody high up decided to make something of it (shortly after signing a contract to play a one and one against MSU).

We can follow the Oregon model -- IF we have someone infuse half a billion(literally) into our program...and use it as a testing ground for all kinds of new cutting edge apparel/athletics stuff...They got good when Nike/Phil Knight showed up. They were terrible before. Had very little to do with "how much they cared" -- they bought victory and with victory came the caring.

I don't see the problem with Keenum and Stricklin -- other than their(thusfar) refusal to fix compliance -- which means our boosters aren't holding their feet to the fire yet. Strick has been a KICK ASS fundraiser -- and has done a badass job of getting us to be fiscally competitive instead of just saying "we can't". Once the stadium expansion is done(an extra $10mil/yr plus in revenue by my math), we're talking about EASILY being inside the top 30 in total AD revenue. We've NEVER even come close to that before == and he deserves some credit for it.

you sort of just refuted your own point. We're on our way to becoming a top 30 program from a revenue standpoint, but we need a billionaire to employ the Oregon model? I don't see it that way. I think we're well enough financially to get by without selling games in exchange for potential losses.

Oregon invested into facilities and apparel then started winning. We're taking a similar approach, but to a lesser degree. I just hate the shortsidedness of taking a $2M pay day and risking a bowl for it... especially considering we had zero clue who our SEC-E away game was against.

But if we win August 31st- that decision looks like gold.

At some point we have to step up and play one of these games- and win it if we want notoriety and the perks that come with it

I'd be satisfied with proving our worth by beating SEC teams.

But if we win this, and we could, its all good.

Jackie beating Texas twice was good for MSU.

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Originally Posted by engie

Were people saying Spurrier had "peaked" there in year 4 and year 5? I don't really remember.

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Yes, people did say that Spurrier had peaked. And there are more examples like Bowden at FSU or Paterno at PSU. Both were little sisters of the poor prior to those coaches building their program.

We can be like USCe or VaTech and occasionally play for the brass ring. We do not have the resources currently to be Alabama or Ohio State and be championship cometitive every year.

But let's realize that this is Mullen's 5th year. He has only 5 redshirt seniors starting along with 2 Jucos. It happened this way because he had to play skill position true freshmen his first year. Next year is the first time he will have a full, properly age apportioned roster and we will be better next year than this. Two years later, when he has had better recruiting classes to develop (his first two full classes were not strong enough) we might be championship competitive.

6 wins is my prediction for this year, but I do not think we are close to our peak. I do want to see us be more competitive in every game, but believe we will. BTW, some days I get more optimistic about this year.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

But if we win August 31st- that decision looks like gold.

At some point we have to step up and play one of these games- and win it if we want notoriety and the perks that come with it

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Exactly. It only is a bad decision if we lose it.

Win that one and it will be MORE positive publicity for us in the 2 weeks leading into Auburn than the entire 7-0 start got us last year IMO...

If we get by OK State, I will expect us to beat Auburn -- at which point we're staring at being 4-0 and undefeated through September again with an off-week before a HUGE home showdown against the Tigahsss -- a game that as of right now I'm not willing to concede by any means...

good Lord I wish I felt as good about things as y'all do. And I sincerely hope y'all are right. My fear isn't about losing to Okie State, it's about seeing our offense sputter aome and seeing them throw up 40 points and embarrassing us the first gem of the season. That happens, the next 11 games are meaningless because we'll never get ranked and, per usual, the bowl reps will want the "sexier" team.

It's a HUGE risk. And an uneccessary one IMO.

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

good Lord I wish I felt as good about things as y'all do. And I sincerely hope y'all are right. My fear isn't about losing to Okie State, it's about seeing our offense sputter aome and seeing them throw up 40 points and embarrassing us the first gem of the season.
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That's the whole thing though- you're creating something that is highly unlikely

Ok State was God-awful on defense last year...80th in the country. Will they improve? Most likely, but they arent going to be a buzzsaw by any means

We return both our QB's, our entire OL, and all of our RB's....if we struggle on offense- then we have much bigger problems than playing Ok State

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

good Lord I wish I felt as good about things as y'all do. And I sincerely hope y'all are right. My fear isn't about losing to Okie State, it's about seeing our offense sputter aome and seeing them throw up 40 points and embarrassing us the first gem of the season. That happens, the next 11 games are meaningless because we'll never get ranked and, per usual, the bowl reps will want the "sexier" team.

It's a HUGE risk. And an uneccessary one IMO.

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Hack, this is the first time I've ever really seen the Poor Ole State mentality come out in you. To be clear, I was against the OK State game at first as well, but the more I've looked into it, the more I like the idea of playing them.

If we can't play a single good OOC game in year 5 of Mullen, when will we ever be able to? We went 7-0 last year -- had an undefeated showdown with Bama -- and the national media barely gave a damn about it. Why? Because we PROVED NOTHING before that(and we certainly proved nothing after).

What do they have on paper that makes us think they are THAT superior to us? Bottom line is that we're JUST as talented across the board as they are. If they are enough better than us to blow us out -- if they outdeveloped us to that extent -- then it's time we get REALLY worried about the Mullen regime. I just don't see it going down like that. They very well may beat us -- but it won't be a blowout -- and either way, people are going to leave the game realizing we're better than we've been given credit for..

Using last year's data in conference only games(their score vs the average their opponents allowed -- and their allowed points vs their opponent's average -- and doing the same thing for us -- Us vs them projects at about a 32-25 OK State victory last year(I'll find the math and post it here). I certainly think we're going to be better than last year on both sides of the ball...

Not trying to speak for Hack, but I somewhat feel the same way. My feelings are not based on talent, they're based off of effort.....and we saw a tremendous lack of effort at times last year. There is no doubt that we CAN be incredible on defense IF we play 4 quarters every week. Will we though? You guys seem super confident and that's great, but you really have no way of knowing that we will get that relentless effort back this season.

I think having some key coaching changes should help that, but I'm not buying into it again this year until I see it. Last year left a bad taste in my mouth, and a lot of this year's team was on last year's team, so I want to make sure they don't fall back in to old habits. Hopefully you guys are right, but I just can't be as confident until it is more than words, and "if's".

I know it sounds negative and all, but I just don't accept quitting and not giving it 100% out there....and our team AND coaches did those things on multiple occasions last year.

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Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

Not trying to speak for Hack, but I somewhat feel the same way. My feelings are not based on talent, they're based off of effort.....and we saw a tremendous lack of effort at times last year. There is no doubt that we CAN be incredible on defense IF we play 4 quarters every week. Will we though? You guys seem super confident and that's great, but you really have no way of knowing that we will get that relentless effort back this season.

I think having some key coaching changes should help that, but I'm not buying into it again this year until I see it. Last year left a bad taste in my mouth, and a lot of this year's team was on last year's team, so I want to make sure they don't fall back in to old habits. Hopefully you guys are right, but I just can't be as confident until it is more than words, and "if's".

I know it sounds negative and all, but I just don't accept quitting and not giving it 100% out there....and our team AND coaches did those things on multiple occasions last year.

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A lack of relentless effort at any point this year = Mullen's seat is SCALDING HOT. Trust me. What happened last year is unacceptable on ANY level. We're ALL on the same page with that. Given context and what we know in hindsight, I can also understand how it happened LAST YEAR. Could you imagine how f'n frustrating it must have been to be Banks and Slay -- two guys trying to go out with a bang at a school they love and be EARLY round NFL talents -- that never got to go press man on anybody? How do you think they felt when Nickoe didn't show up for OTT help -- and made it look like they had just straight up gotten torched(Moncrief just scored again!!1!1)? How was it fair for Nickoe -- who was being asked to do more than was physically(and mentally) possible for him? Did you see his draft stock plummet because we weren't putting him in position to have success? What about the 2nd string guys at DT that no matter how they dominated in their snaps, they still spent the majority of the time sitting behind Cherrington? What about a tremendous rush LB(Wells) only getting unleashed a handful of times all year while having a guy that playing out of position in front of you that NEVER rushed and couldn't cover guys in the slot like he was being asked to do?

I can tell you this speaking from experience -- it's HARD to play with relentless effort when you think your coach is an idiot and is basically sabotaging your success... which I think we all feel about Wilson now given the time to look back on it...

It's just shortsighted and narrowminded to forget ALL of the tremendous effort we gave before all that. Remember 2009? 2010? 2011? Remember Trent Richardson talking about how hard and consistently we hit him in 2011?