So sad, Hotty Toddy has lost yet another one today

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03-01-2015, 01:26 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by HSVDawg

The one thing about OM is their nonconference schedule at least gives them an opportunity to rebound and still host if they can put it together before SEC play. Looking at the RPI yesterday, OM (at 5-3), were 20 spots ahead of us (at 12-0), and before the loss today had the #3 RPI. That speaks volumes on how much more difficult their nonconference schedule is than ours.

Historically a team with a really high RPI and a record of 30-26 still won't host. You still have to win at least some of the games. Also, you don't want to have to count on rebounding in SEC play. I don't care how good Warren Nolan and Kendall Rodgers think Wright State and William and Mary are- if you aren't beating those teams you are going to struggle in SEC play.
03-01-2015, 01:28 PM
maroonmania

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsvltndog

They are struggling so much that their RPI on Warren Nolan has risen to #4 this morning after their 2nd consecutive loss. This certainly backs up the notion of early season RPI being meaningless.

Yep, they will probably move up in the D1baseball rankings this week. Caption will read "Rebels have all the breaks go against them as they show great promise in their series loss to UCF".
03-01-2015, 01:29 PM
HSVDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by chef dixon

100 spot rise from last night

They were #3 last night, #4 today. So, minimal change since their loss today. Before last night I'm not sure what it was.
03-01-2015, 01:31 PM
HSVDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Historically a team with a really high RPI and a record of 30-26 still won't host. You still have to win at least some of the games. Also, you don't want to have to count on rebounding in SEC play. I don't care how good Warren Nolan and Kendall Rodgers think Wright State and William and Mary are- if you aren't beating those teams you are going to struggle in SEC play.

I agree Todd, that's why I made sure to say "IF they put it together before SEC play". My main point was they have a much larger margin of error than we do in our nonconference schedule.
03-01-2015, 01:36 PM
chef dixon

Quote:

Originally Posted by HSVDawg

They were #3 last night, #4 today. So, minimal change since their loss today. Before last night I'm not sure what it was.

Last night on warren nolan they were at 104 with a 5-3 record. Not sure if it was a mistake but that's what it was.
03-01-2015, 01:47 PM
HSVDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by chef dixon

Last night on warren nolan they were at 104 with a 5-3 record. Not sure if it was a mistake but that's what it was.

I'm thinking it may have been a mistake. I checked it at around 11:30 PM last night. OM was at #3 and we were at #23. Had their record listed as 5-3, so it was up to date before their loss today. It actually makes sense for their RPI to be very high right now because every team they have played except maybe 1 or 2 are currently in the Top 50-60. That's why I'd be shocked if it was ever as low as 104 yesterday.
03-01-2015, 01:51 PM
sandwolf

Quote:

Originally Posted by chef dixon

Last night on warren nolan they were at 104 with a 5-3 record. Not sure if it was a mistake but that's what it was.

Yep, I looked yesterday during the day, and they were at 104. May have been a mistake, but they were definitely at 104.
03-01-2015, 01:52 PM
chef dixon

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandwolf

Yep, I looked yesterday during the day, and they were at 104. May have been a mistake, but they were definitely at 104.

William and Mary probably pulled out a tough one against Towson.
03-01-2015, 02:08 PM
engie

RPI is still not a valid formula because of lacked interconnectedness that multiple opponents give. It's week 3. It'll be fully valid about week 5.
03-01-2015, 02:10 PM
msstate7

Ucf trying to take the lead. Down 1 with bases loaded and no outs
03-01-2015, 02:16 PM
smootness

Quote:

Originally Posted by HSVDawg

The one thing about OM is their nonconference schedule at least gives them an opportunity to rebound and still host if they can put it together before SEC play. Looking at the RPI yesterday, OM (at 5-3), were 20 spots ahead of us (at 12-0), and before the loss today had the #3 RPI. That speaks volumes on how much more difficult their nonconference schedule is than ours.

No, it speaks to how weird RPI is this early.
03-01-2015, 02:18 PM
MedDawg

UCF is undefeated (for now) at 10-0, so each game really helps OM's RPI (for now)...

Quote:

Originally Posted by chef dixon

William and Mary probably pulled out a tough one against Towson.

OM's non-conference schedule won't be any better than it is now (RPI-wise). Some of those teams they've played won't have Top 100 RPI's later in the season.

The Rebs do have a really tough SEC schedule ahead of them--@LSU, @Arkansas, Florida at home, @Vandy. Even @Missouri may be tough this year. They better hope to sweep the middlin' SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, Tennessee) at home to have a decent record.
03-01-2015, 02:39 PM
RougeDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by BiscuitEater

so ... what seems to be the problems?

Most 'services' had them ranked somewhat high ... higher than us.

The main reason for their fall is the loss of their hitting coach from last season. He was the mastermind behind their potent offense. They raked last year because they had a dedicated true "hitting" coach. Most of the better offenses in baseball have one of these. I believe they hired him away from A&M and the Aggies offensive numbers saw a huge dropoff after he left as well. A good dedicated hitting coach can have a night and day effect on the offense.
03-01-2015, 03:27 PM
chef dixon

Naturally they moved up to #1 now after salvaging game 3 of the series v. UCF.
03-01-2015, 06:00 PM
HSVDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandwolf

Yep, I looked yesterday during the day, and they were at 104. May have been a mistake, but they were definitely at 104.

I just looked at it again. I think what you and chef dixon may have seen is their winning percentage rank (which is the first column of rankings from the left), which is 104. However, their actual RPI rank is now #1 after they won their second game. This is primarily due to their SOS which is now #2 nationally.

FYI, link is here which shows the latest and greatest way-too-early RPI.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/rpi

ETA: We are now #21 with an SOS ranked 147 of roughly 300 teams.
03-01-2015, 06:45 PM
Coach34

They are not going to have to worry about hosting after they finish about 7th or 8th in the SEC

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