Hey TheRef.... Im beginning to hear rumblings of

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BulldogDX55

Not that I Would ever doubt you on the weather, but I just read a Bloomberg article that says it could still set up.

---

To be truthful, everyone has been saying that it would set up for a good six months. Could it set up? Sure! Will it? Doubtful.

What's holding back more accurate long term models?

Isn't everything caused by something? We don't really have random weather do we?

I know this is complex stuff that is difficult to understand. But are we making progress? Are long term models today more accurate than they were 20 years ago?

We can split protons into a million pieces. We can observe stars zooming around the black hole at the center of our galaxy. We can map out the arrangement of galaxies on our corner of the universe. We can send robots to analyze molecules on Mars. We know how planets are made. We can look at a piece of ice from Antarctica and know what the climate was like 1,500,000 years ago.

But we don't know with much precision what the weather will be in 10 days? What are we missing? Research dollars?

Every time we miss an extra point it gets a degree cooler. Sure hope we get that fixed or it's going to be a cold, cold winter.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by FlabLoser

What's holding back more accurate long term models?

Isn't everything caused by something? We don't really have random weather do we?

I know this is complex stuff that is difficult to understand. But are we making progress? Are long term models today more accurate than they were 20 years ago?

We can split protons into a million pieces. We can observe stars zooming around the black hole at the center of our galaxy. We can map out the arrangement of galaxies on our corner of the universe. We can send robots to analyze molecules on Mars. We know how planets are made. We can look at a piece of ice from Antarctica and know what the climate was like 1,500,000 years ago.

But we don't know with much precision what the weather will be in 10 days? What are we missing? Research dollars?

---

The thing that is holding us back with long term models is the fact that the fundamental equations of Meteorology, have the chaos theory built in. Each time you run the model, you could get a completely different outcome. One small change (I'm talking .1 degrees, .01 mb pressure, 1 kt wind speed change, 1 degree directional change) could completely change the outcome of the model. Also have to take into account the very bad observations we get at every level. Upper levels are even worse. Yeah we send up balloons, but the act of sending up balloons flaws the observations. It's actually quite pathetic all of our things are. Not only do we need more money, we need more observations. Better observation methods, better model parameters, etc. Will money help? Yeah. But not nearly as much as you'd think.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

You do realize that if this part of the statement you just made gets out to the general public there won't be a loaf of bread or jug of milk to be found? I remember last year when they were predicting that ice storm I had to go into Kroger to refill a prescription the day before that was to start. Sweet mercy. There were literally two loaves of bread left on the shelves and no milk or bottled water at all. People were stocking up like they were preparing for a nuclear holocaust. All the register lines were back into the shopping aisles. I just wanted to get on the PA system and remind people that three days later the forecast high was 60 degrees. Nobody was going to have to resort to cannibalism to survive.

---

These dumb shits kill me. It is going to snow for one day so panic. Why is it bread and milk. Wtf are they making? A milk sandwhich?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jack Lambert

So no El Nino?

---

Spanish for.....The Nino

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ennis Del Mar

Spanish for.....The Nino

---

Are you sure you never took a class under Dr. Jamie Dyer?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by FlabLoser

What's holding back more accurate long term models?

Isn't everything caused by something? We don't really have random weather do we?

I know this is complex stuff that is difficult to understand. But are we making progress? Are long term models today more accurate than they were 20 years ago?

We can split protons into a million pieces. We can observe stars zooming around the black hole at the center of our galaxy. We can map out the arrangement of galaxies on our corner of the universe. We can send robots to analyze molecules on Mars. We know how planets are made. We can look at a piece of ice from Antarctica and know what the climate was like 1,500,000 years ago.

But we don't know with much precision what the weather will be in 10 days? What are we missing? Research dollars?

---

ETA: I see Ref beat me to the answer. Just read his and ignore mine. He almost has a degree and I am just a weather nut that likes to chase tornadoes. Advantage: Ref.

I'm not a certified meteorologist, but I'll take a stab at it and then some that are can fill in the blanks or correct me if I am wrong. All of those things in the universe are on set patterns that do not change. They've been doing that since God said "Let it be so." The weather in the past left distinct patterns that can be analyzed to see what already happened. But future weather is dependant on so many different variables that it makes your head hurt. And how strong one variable may be could be determined on another variable. If that one is just a little off then everything gets thrown off skew. The computer models are just best guesses on what will happen based on current observations from weather balloons, climate history, etc. They wrote the algorithyms to take all that into account and then create a guess (forecast) on what will happen based on that. But if just one little thing changes somewhere on the globe, then a low doesn't form or is stronger/weaker than first thought, A high pressure doesn't get the kick out they thought to bring a return flow over an area and a storm track is diverted. Just too many unknowns to be able to predict weather that many days out. Now, in the case of wintry precipitation in the south...temperature is the biggest key. We rarely can sustain temps below freezing with moisture in the air due to our latitude. That's what makes it so hard. All you need is for it to be 33 instead of 32 to be have either a crippling ice storm or a cold rain. That was the case last year. Starkville never got below 33 or 34 degrees so we shut everything down for a cold rain. Impossible to predict that kind of temperature accuracy right now. Will it improve in the future? Probably.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ennis Del Mar

Spanish for.....The Nino

---

Always heard that Dennys was Spanish for Next to La Quinta.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

The latest LiterallyPolice Weather Model (LPWM) is showing a strong possiblity of snow in the Oxford region if we beat LSU. I asked the LPWM to explain that logic (because yes, LPWM is competetly sentient). He replied "If MSU beats LSU, we know that hell has frozen over".

That LPWM.... he sucks at weather, but he's got a good sense of humor.