Yupp. I'm absolutely certain about that. Henderson can't get his cocaine lost in the snow this time.
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Okay. All of these forecasts are going to be very basic layouts as far as what I will give y'all. If you want more in-depth, I can do that for you but you'll need to tell me that before I will give it to you. So here we go, I'll try to clump ones together that are close to each other.
Coastal Alabama? Never snows here, the panic is on
#1: Tupelo area
0% chance of snow. Hate to burst your bubble but I don't see any feasible way of there being snow up in Tupelo. The Northern part of the state is just too cold, believe it or not, for our snow chances. The front is pushing too far South for the Tupelo area to get snow. It will be pretty freaking cold though with a high only in the upper 20's for tomorrow with a corresponding low the next evening in the single digits!!!
#2: Highway 82 corridor
Latest model runs (12Z) are showing that we are just about on the borderline for a DUSTING of snow during this event. I put the chances of snow <10% for this whole stretch of area. If the models continue to trend towards pushing this Low more to a Northerly track then we could see more, but I'm not looking at that to be the case. The main snow chances, however, will be further South around the I-20 corridor.
#3: I-20 corridor
This is where it gets tricky. The NAM is keeping the line mostly away from I-20 on the western extent, but will touch the eastern extent of I-20 during the period. This could all change with subsequent soundings and model runs, but everything seems to be touching towards < 1" for the region with the higher amounts towards the Eastern part of the state (Meridian, et. al.) near the I-20 corridor and pushing South towards the coast until about the LA-MS boot begins. I give this area about a 50-60% chance to receive snowfall, although only a light dusting of wet snow is possible further to the West.
#4: NOLA region
NOLA will be interesting to watch also as this is where the Southernmost extent of the snow will likely come from. Now this region will also be subjected to possible freezing rain Tuesday morning lasting throughout the day and into the evening. This will be about as much of a wintry precipitation chance as New Orleans is going to get. Maybe a light dusting of wet wet snow, but that seems quite unlikely.
#5: MS Gulf Coast region
MS Gulf Coast will be subjected to the most snowfall in the regions that have been asked. It certainly is not out of the question to get multiple inches of precipitation (snow/sleet) before this system pushes out. The only reliable model location on the coast is Gulfport, so I'll base all of my forecasts on this location since it has the most data. Everthing looks to be kicking off around early to mid morning Tuesday with some freezing rain. With this freezing rain, there may be some light accumulation on bridges and cars who have been sitting in the cold all night without being run. The freezing rain chances will continue throughout the day until late in the evening around midnight. At that point, snow will become much more likely, granted for only about 3 hours. So the best chance to see snow fall on the coast is late in the night.
If y'all need anything else, just hit me up.
Will snow fall into the Gulf of Mexico?
So, no mention of the Hattiesburg area?
For Jackson, NOAA is predicting 60% for sleet/snow. TWC says 30% snow and nothing else.
I usually find TWC reasonably accurate. Surprised they and NOAA disagree this much for tomorrow.
How about the mccomb area
Durham, NC
Thanks, Ref. I'd better go get some milk and bread. :-)