Prediction - State has two 100 yrd rushers at USM

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08-25-2025, 07:17 PM
Homedawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

I hope it?s closer to 70 30 Run pass with the pass game being quick game, RPO and shot plays off hard play action, max protect. We have a big OL 3 SEC backs and some speed at WR. I don?t see what else we should do

Lebby has never ever been anywhere close to 70/30
08-25-2025, 08:31 PM
PGHBulldogBG

Lebby has to know in the back of his head there is a strong chance Shapen gets hurt. I think 55/45 run/pass is what we see but if Shapen gets hurt I see more like 60/40 or closer to 65/35. Shapen has good arm strength and the potential to be a good QB for us if he can maintain from getting injured. OL is the main concern I have offensively.
08-25-2025, 10:00 PM
BuckyIsAB****

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEDawg

That is way too high imo. Maybe if it is the LK or KT package but you are leaving a lot on the table with a 5th year QB doing that

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly
08-25-2025, 10:03 PM
BuckyIsAB****

Quote:

Originally Posted by Homedawg

Lebby has never ever been anywhere close to 70/30

Better lean that way this time. You have 2 TE, 3 proven SEC backs, one of the biggest and most improved OLs in the conference, an injury prone QB and no proven WRs. You run the ball, you max protect and take shots out of 12 personnel. That is hell on a defense. You are getting 2 1v1s for what is a fast WR group and you do have an athletic TE in Traore. When you do throw it it is quick game get it out fast. Bubbles, hitch, etc
08-25-2025, 10:28 PM
Brobi-wan

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

Better lean that way this time. You have 2 TE, 3 proven SEC backs, one of the biggest and most improved OLs in the conference, an injury prone QB and no proven WRs. You run the ball, you max protect and take shots out of 12 personnel. That is hell on a defense. You are getting 2 1v1s for what is a fast WR group and you do have an athletic TE in Traore. When you do throw it it is quick game get it out fast. Bubbles, hitch, etc

I don’t actually hate this idea. I think this game plan could help you steal a win or two by shortening games if the defense can hold at all.
08-26-2025, 12:15 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

I'm not sure that we had one really last year either. This offense by scheme allows WR's to thrive even if they aren't the most proven. I think we are as good or better at WR than we were at this time last year. Mosley, Brennen Thompson, Anthony Evans, Ayden Williams, and SanFrisco Magee are all really talented and have various levels of WR experience in the SEC. Then you have Ricky Johnson.
08-26-2025, 12:18 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG

Lebby has to know in the back of his head there is a strong chance Shapen gets hurt. I think 55/45 run/pass is what we see but if Shapen gets hurt I see more like 60/40 or closer to 65/35. Shapen has good arm strength and the potential to be a good QB for us if he can maintain from getting injured. OL is the main concern I have offensively.

I think we should just play call like normal and if Shapen gets hurt he gets hurt. That's why we got Kromenhoek. It seems like whenever we play to call to keep a QB from getting hurt it always backfires because we end up being overly conservative.
08-26-2025, 07:03 AM
ZedFedder

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I'm not sure that we had one really last year either. This offense by scheme allows WR's to thrive even if they aren't the most proven. I think we are as good or better at WR than we were at this time last year. Mosley, Brennen Thompson, Anthony Evans, Ayden Williams, and SanFrisco Magee are all really talented and have various levels of WR experience in the SEC. Then you have Ricky Johnson.

Correct. Kevin Coleman had done pretty much nothing before last season.
08-26-2025, 07:45 AM
DEDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

That doesnt mean we only should throw the ball 30%? WR will emerge throughout the season
08-26-2025, 07:47 AM
StarkVegasSteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

And throw it to who? We dont have one proven WR on the roster honestly

We didn't last year either and were just fine. This offense is going to produce 65/850/8. It's done it everywhere. From UCF to Ole Miss to Oklahoma and here last year.
08-26-2025, 03:53 PM
archdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brobi-wan

I don’t actually hate this idea. I think this game plan could help you steal a win or two by shortening games if the defense can hold at all.

Bingo. This is the only way I see us getting to 6 wins.
08-26-2025, 04:13 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brobi-wan

I don’t actually hate this idea. I think this game plan could help you steal a win or two by shortening games if the defense can hold at all.

Isn't that kind of like what South Carolina was doing last year?
08-26-2025, 07:43 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrapGame

Isn't that kind of like what South Carolina was doing last year?

Not that extreme. They were 60/40 run pass using traditional data. So including scrambles and sacks they were probably more like 50/50 or close to it.

I couldn't find advanced data for them so I went with traditional.
08-26-2025, 08:04 PM
Coach34

#RTGDF and take shots down the field
08-27-2025, 04:11 AM
bulldawg28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

#RTGDF and take shots down the field

This ALL DAY! The one thing this new agenda football has done is taken the physical component away and turned things into a pass league. These Defenses have resorted to smaller faster guys.

Being a physical team will and running the ball will win games in today's climate. We could use Arizona state as a model from last year. Teams that run the ball win championships in high school, college, and pro. All the current champions have one thing in common, they are run heavy!
08-27-2025, 10:50 AM
TrapGame

I do not think USM will be good enough on defense to stop our ground game and Lebby is going to exploit that.

Borky and Haddad were talking yesterday about hearing things from people at practice and scrimmages that see big improvements on both sides of the ball. They (the folks they spoke with) are quietly optimistic that we are going to be a lot better than most people think.
08-27-2025, 10:57 AM
StarkVegasSteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrapGame

I do not think USM will be good enough on defense to stop our ground game and Lebby is going to exploit that.

Borky and Haddad were talking yesterday about hearing things from people at practice and scrimmages that see big improvements on both sides of the ball. They (the folks they spoke with) are quietly optimistic that we are going to be a lot better than most people think.

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.
08-27-2025, 11:37 AM
DEDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

Yeah this is great. Shapen throws a great deep ball and we have elite speed on the outside. Dominate on the ground and take shots downfield when they present. Play SEC defense and claw our way to 6 wins.
08-27-2025, 01:48 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

I bet Shapen doesn't run it 152 times this year though. Corral was a big part of their run game and I know we're talking strictly about ratios here but if you reduce the QB runs it's likely to make the ratios smaller. I'm talking 55/45 here for reference run/pass.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised that as receivers emerge we evolve to Lebby's norm as the season progresses.
08-27-2025, 01:55 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

Talked to a couple of people this week that said we'll be 58:42 or even 59:41 rush/pass ratio. Said that doesn't mean we're not going to throw but it's going to be very similar to the 2021 Ole Miss offense. Said they expect Booth and Bothwell to both have at or near 200 carries. Also said that Davis/Gayten/Daniels will also probably get 100 carries between the 3.

Off topic- didn't MSU hire some football analytics guys in the offseason or did I make that up?

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