The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

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Originally Posted by msstate7

70-150 million with a death rate of 3% is 2.1-4.5 million deaths. I'm not buying that at all. If he's predicting 70-150 million, then I say the 3% death rate is grossly exaggerated.

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I'm sorry that the best available facts don't line up with what you immagine reality to be... seriously 7, you're a stats guy. Saying 'I don't buy" it can get that bad or "ix this part is really that bad then the other part must be not nearly as bad" are basically you stating "I arbitrarily decided it will only be X bad, so whatever formula of # infected x death rate must = X". You're smarter than to use hunches from your own ass in the face of what literal Dr's and nations with or evidence say.

Death rates are probably closer to 1% than 3. And back to CHina- remember they quarantined Wuhan after only 500 confirmed cases, and took a lot more quarantine action elsewhere after I think 2,000 cases were confirmed. We've already had over 1,000 cases confirmed and aren't doing shit, so yeah it's reasonable to think the % of the population that gets it will be higher than China's was (or SK or that matter)

Part of my health issues are related to something similar to Coronavirus. I contracted it at Ft. Sam Houston (which is currently handling quarantines). No Dr. could figure out what it was and no antibiotics worked on it. It was a terrible cough & really hard to breathe. Coughed so hard I'd throw up. Worst shit I've ever had. Left my lungs scarred. So if I get this....I'm toast. Or maybe I'm immune now.....hmm.

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Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us

I'm sorry that the best available facts don't line up with what you immagine reality to be... seriously 7, you're a stats guy. Saying 'I don't buy" it can get that bad or "ix this part is really that bad then the other part must be not nearly as bad" are basically you stating "I arbitrarily decided it will only be X bad, so whatever formula of # infected x death rate must = X". You're smarter than to use hunches from your own ass in the face of what literal Dr's and nations with or evidence say.

Death rates are probably closer to 1% than 3. And back to CHina- remember they quarantined Wuhan after only 500 confirmed cases, and took a lot more quarantine action elsewhere after I think 2,000 cases were confirmed. We've already had over 1,000 cases confirmed and aren't doing shit, so yeah it's reasonable to think the % of the population that gets it will be higher than China's was (or SK or that matter)

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China has been dealing with this since January. They're reporting 80,932 cases. Let's just say they're lying and it's 1000x worse than that... 80,932,000 cases. They're population is 1.4 billion, so that would mean 5.8% of the population has it. The deaths reported there 3,056. Let's say that's 1000x worse than reported... so 3.056 million deaths, which is 2.2% of population.

Now to US... if we get 50-170 million cases, that would be 15.2-51.5% of the population getting it. Just don't see how you can come up with that number with the data that is out there.

Been fighting bronchitis for a month now. Don't want that shit near me until I'm over this crap fully.

There's a difference between taking it seriously and panicking.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

China has been dealing with this since January. They're reporting 80,932 cases. Let's just say they're lying and it's 1000x worse than that... 80,932,000 cases. They're population is 1.4 billion, so that would mean 5.8% of the population has it. The deaths reported there 3,056. Let's say that's 1000x worse than reported... so 3.056 million deaths, which is 2.2% of population.

Now to US... if we get 50-170 million cases, that would be 15.2-51.5% of the population getting it. Just don't see how you can come up with that number with the data that is out there.

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I'm not buying it either..the predicted deaths or final count...I'm basing it off something I learned in college many years ago in ECON classes, ceteris paribus...I think that's right. Anyway, at the time these predictions are made, they're based on everything remaining the same. Problem is, we're taking steps to change everything conducive to the virus spreading....that's what I base my "not buying it on". Grounding flights, shutting down events with a crowd, closing borders.....I am immuno-compromised so you won't be seeing me too many places and avoiding the ER, hospitals and clinics, God willing.

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Originally Posted by KOdawg1

There's a difference between taking it seriously and panicking.

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And doing things like suspending sporting events, online classes, and limiting foreign travel is taking it seriously. It's what should be done.

Panicking is buying 5 cases of toliet paper and paying $20 for some hand sanitizer on eBay

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Originally Posted by KOdawg1

There's a difference between taking it seriously and panicking.

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And.. everyone has an opinion about what the line is for that.

The crazy thing is we have a media preaching panic and a potential pandemic but yet we have colleges closing. So my question as a father of a student 8 months in pa school do many of y?all agree with college shutdown with online training but still expect medical personnel to be properly trained? What do want and expect?

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Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

pretty much a 1/3 of the US population is going to get it. probably around 3% are going to die. brutal.

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More like 1.5% will be serious and 0.5% will die....possibly much lower because there are now months of R&D

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Originally Posted by BayouDawg

I know this is definitely black helicopters but what if the Chinese created this virus and released it to send the world economy into disarray.

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listen to the rogan podcast from this week - solid info from an expert and no its not a manufactured virus - mother nature is more clever than we are

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Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer

More like 1.5% will be serious and 0.5% will die....possibly much lower because there are now months of R&D

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nearly 100% will get it - many wont know they had it but they will transmit it

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Originally Posted by msstate7

China has been dealing with this since January. They're reporting 80,932 cases. Let's just say they're lying and it's 1000x worse than that... 80,932,000 cases. They're population is 1.4 billion, so that would mean 5.8% of the population has it. The deaths reported there 3,056. Let's say that's 1000x worse than reported... so 3.056 million deaths, which is 2.2% of population.

Now to US... if we get 50-170 million cases, that would be 15.2-51.5% of the population getting it. Just don't see how you can come up with that number with the data that is out there.

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china has known since november- they lost control in december

Ya'll some tin foil hat wearing SOBs up in here.

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Originally Posted by Dawgcap

The crazy thing is we have a media preaching panic and a potential pandemic but yet we have colleges closing. So my question as a father of a student 8 months in pa school do many of y?all agree with college shutdown with online training but still expect medical personnel to be properly trained? What do want and expect?

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Yes I still expect medical professional to properly trained even though they had to take online classes instead of classroom classes for a few weeks when they were students.

Because the truth is, if this keeps a student from becoming properly trained......well it's not the online classes fault. That student needs to find a new career

Guys, you better take this shit seriously. It's going to be ugly in about a month. Nobody knows how ugly yet, but IT'S COMING.

With all of the people planning on traveling for spring break around the country, it is definitely going to get worse before it gets better.

We will see a spike in cases over the next 3 weeks as colleges and K-12 schools are either on spring break now or go on spring break over the next 2-3 weeks.

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

With all of the people planning on traveling for spring break around the country, it is definitely going to get worse before it gets better.

We will see a spike in cases over the next 3 weeks as colleges and K-12 schools are either on spring break now or go on spring break over the next 2-3 weeks.

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I know local schools are happy spring break is here so they don't have to close classes. They're taking a wait and see approach to where this goes and will make decisions about whether to reopen after spring break.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

I know local schools are happy spring break is here so they don't have to close classes. They're taking a wait and see approach to where this goes and will make decisions about whether to reopen after spring break.

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That's my guess as to what happens here in Alabama. My spring break is the week after next. I would imagine our system tries to make it to spring break, then based on the circumstances of how the outbreak is proceeding, will determine if we will be asked to stay home for an additional week after spring break.

"There are two main versions of the rumor, and they have one common thread: that the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, originated in a level 4 (the highest biosafety level) research laboratory in Wuhan.

In one version of the rumor, the virus was engineered in the lab by humans as a bioweapon. In another version, the virus was being studied in the lab (after being isolated from animals) and then ?escaped? or ?leaked? because of poor safety protocol."

URL="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab"]https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab[/URL]