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Originally Posted by Dawgology
We're still hitting about 1k deaths a day in the US. As economy ramps up and we have winter to go through this won't just completely disappear. If it does, great! I'll be happy to be wrong about that. But if it doesn't, well...
Hopefully we've learned enough to manage this at the county level going forward. Locking down cities/counties as needed when hospitals get close to capacity. We'll see though.
So we were one off of it, one day after hitting record number of new cases in a day. The hospitalized is way up since then too. I wonder why that is? What would that be timed with?Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
It will never go away. We will learn to live with it like West Nile and H1N1. People will get it and people will die from it. It's effect will demenish over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
Covid-19 is never going away. It's here to stay. It is already endemic to the population of the world. The best we can hope for is better treatment and hopefully a seasonal vaccine like the flu.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
With that said what you are seeing now is the calm AFTER the storm. A new, invasive virus will always hit hard first. This sounds terrible but something like this will kill the weak and susceptible to it first. It will blow up like a wildfire and then dwindle to manageable levels. Read about how the flu started.
The seasonal flu that we have to this day started in 1918. It infected 500 million and killed almost 50 million. Killed over 500,000 in the US. It is still with us today due to mutations. It took 15 years for them to identify the 1918 flu as a virus and an additional 75 years to map it's genome. It still isn't fully understood although seasonal vaccines seem to be mostly effective.
At no point in history did we shut down the US economy to fight the flu even though it is historically just as deadly as Covid-19.
I don't understand why people keep saying this or heard immunity is the only option. Some countries have it so under control they only have 10's per day. A few countries have eradicated it completely. I don't see why the greatest, richest country in the world shouldn't expect better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Yeah those countries are either well organized, the population is tak8ng it seriously and protecting themselves, or they are so geograpgically isolated they have a built in protection. Which we meet zero of those three criteria points.Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
We have thousands of people protesting together. We have thousands of people going on vacation together. We have constant discussions about people going to sporting events. We have people not protecting themselves as much as possible literally every way we turn. None of those countries you didn't list have that.
Yes, we are going to have to operate with COVID. Yes we will continue to have new cases come up. This thing is never going away until we either get a vaccine or herd immunity. For the next couple of years, we are going to have deaths. The responsible thing to do is limit as much contact as you can with other people. If you get sick, totally isolate yourself as best you can.
The seasonal flu we have today started way, way, way before 1918. 1918 was when the seasonal flu strain evolved into the H1N1 strain. The H1N1 strain is a bad m17er. The seasonal flu has been around for damn near forever. We have evelved with it over 50 thousand years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
If the greatest, richest country in the world was also the smartest and most rational country in the world, we may have a shot. We have 17n dumbasses out there that are fighting wearing mask because it infringes on their rights.Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
If we all did these very simple things, our numbers would be much lower.
1. Stay away from other people.
2. If you have to go out, stay at a min 6 feet away from other people. 12 ft preferred.
3. Do not have groups larger than 10 people, preferred just do not meet in groups as much as humanly possible.
4. Treat everything as if the guy next to you has it, or you personally have it.
5. Have as much empathy, compassion, and sense of protection for your community as you would for your child living with you is immune suppressed.
Simple. Easy to do. And we would have less deaths and cases overall.
Because us clamping down to that point would result in harms worse than the disease. If it were easy or even possible to eradicate a particular virus by locking down for a few weeks, we could do it. As economically devastating as that would be in the short term, it would be worth it to knock out corona viruses, flu, etc. Of course it's extremely unlikely we'd every be successful and even if we did, some of the viruses will still have reservoirs in other hosts that will come back eventually.Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
THIS is absolutely correct. #4 involves everyone wearing a mask too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
Best I can tell from the bar graph below the hospitalizations chart, there have been 3-5 deaths total in the state, regardless of age, for people who have no underlying conditions. That's pretty good.
Also good that reopening seems to have had no impact on hospitalizations. Less now than on May 20.
https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
Is your hypothesis that the other countries didn't have to make the same choice/trade-off?Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Is your hypothesis that other counties were similarly situated to us?Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
Normalizing per capita and per GDP; Yes. Accounting for heart, ingenuity, and know how; No. I expect us to be way ahead in those last three.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Well, that's just a bad hypothesis. Don't know what else to tell you. For example, controlling the international border of Korea is a little different than closing the state border of say Connecticut. Culture also matters, as does past experience.Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
And of course a lot of these countries that are looking ok right now may still just be shifting the timing of deaths rather than preventing anything.
Not like you could enforce a border now or a mandatory quarantine with police defunded and dissolved. Guess you could let some social workers and psychologists work those details....Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
I'm sorry but the vaccine you take every year is for H1N1, H3N2, and Influenza B. It is directly related to the 1918 pandemic. It can literally be traced back to 1918.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
Good one!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Alabama over 1000 cases today. This is their 4th straight day of a record setting case number.
ETA... I think the only way to get through this is herd immunity, so I'm not freaking out over big case numbers. I am worried a little about trivial things like sports though.
I mentioned earlier in this thread about my older brother. He is 100 pounds overweight. He has prostate cancer that got to his back bone. He has numerous health conditions. He caught the virus and has gotten real sick. He just got released out of the ICU and is in regular room. He is still isolated. They are learning how to treat the sickness when you get it. He never went on ventilator. For all practical reason he should have but he did not thanks to the doctor and nurses who helped him.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7