The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

The thing that people need to remember about critical care and ventilators is:

1. Not ALL patients with Coronavirus are going to have to be on a vent.

2. Many of those that do have to go onto a vent will also eventually come off of the vent.

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That's true, but you have to assume each death tally ended on the ventilator (aside from a minority that are do not resuscitate), and in Italy's case that number is very significant.

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Originally Posted by chef dixon

That's true, but you have to assume each death tally ended on the ventilator (aside from a minority that are do not resuscitate), and in Italy's case that number is very significant.

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Actually, you can't assume that. I've heard of people dying in their home.

I think a great sample population is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We actually have both a numerator and a denominator in a confined population. There were about 3700 people on board that ship in a confined area for multiple weeks. All were tested (to my knowledge). Of those 3700, 712 contracted the virus and of those 712: 9 have died, 527 have recovered, and 14 are in critical condition. This complete sample population currently indicates a death rate if 1.2%. That could, of course, be adjusted depending on what happens with the remaining 177 cases. This also does not address underlying health conditions or approximate age.

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Originally Posted by Dawgology

I think a great sample population is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We actually have both a numerator and a denominator in a confined population. There were about 3700 people on board that ship in a confined area for multiple weeks. All were tested (to my knowledge). Of those 3700, 712 contracted the virus and of those 712: 9 have died, 527 have recovered, and 14 are in critical condition. This complete sample population currently indicates a death rate if 1.2%. That could, of course, be adjusted depending on what happens with the remaining 177 cases. This also does not address underlying health conditions or approximate age.

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Great post.

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Originally Posted by StateDawg44

Is that a fact?

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Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Just an FYI, just heard from FEMA and MEMA, the two week shutdown and fuel shortage is nothing but a hoax. So don't act a fool.

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Same person that said South Korea had its first case 4+ months ahead of us. Take anything he says as utter trolling at this point, everyone. Ignore him and disregard. Do research outside of trusting in him.

Cruise ship population does not equate to general population. The most accurate estimates we have right now are not good. Most people still have no clue what they're about to witness across America.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

Same person that said South Korea had its first case 4+ months ahead of us. Take anything he says as utter trolling at this point, everyone. Ignore him and disregard. Do research outside of trusting in him.

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Bless your heart. By the way, MS has 2100 ventilators on the way. Masks on the way too but those are harder to get because NY, LA etc. get priority. Basically it's a numbers game via population.
Health Dept can handle 200 tests per day currently. The new fast track testing is about to take off.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

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For sure. Just found out a nephew and cousin could have symptoms and my sister has to quarantine. And my next door neighbor nurse(yep, pharmacist on one side and nurse on the other) told me a doctor at the hospital here in little rural south Alabama is pretty sure he’s seen cases with it but couldn’t test and sent em home.

Mass testing is not as important now as it would have been weeks to months ago. Its widespread and in an alarming number of asymptomatic people now. People with symptoms that aren't sick enough to go to the hospital probably need to just self quarantine at this point. There are no validated treatments so a visit to a doctor and getting a confirmatory test are not necessary and just put yourself and others at risk.

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Originally Posted by chef dixon

Mass testing is not as important now as it would have been weeks to months ago. Its widespread and in an alarming number of asymptomatic people now. People with symptoms that aren't sick enough to go to the hospital probably need to just self quarantine at this point. There are no validated treatments so a visit to a doctor and getting a confirmatory test are not necessary and just put yourself and others at risk.

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Nobody has to leave their cars on the fast track.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Nobody has to leave their cars on the fast track.

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There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

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Originally Posted by Mjoelner34

There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

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And it's not happening anytime soon

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Originally Posted by defiantdog

I understand the comparisons with Italy, but Germany and France seem to be keeping better containment. Maybe, just maybe, the numbers stop growing after we contain the majority of the population.

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The problem is we haven't contained a large majority of the population. There are way too many people not taking the restrictions serious. We are relying on citizens good judgement in a time when a large percentage of our people don't possess that asset.

Another thing you guys arguing numbers need to understand. Because we have a larger population than Italy doesn't mean we have a smaller percentage infected. It means it will take longer to spread and infect since we are much larger in side and population.

And if you are discounting the affect on football season in the fall, you are much less concerned than the people who know the most about this disease.

And the oil situation is not a hoax. There is no current shortage and won't be a shortage. But there could be a delay in supply at some point due to logistics and those available to work. Just a possibility that I would prepare for if easy.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

And it's not happening anytime soon

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The FDA has eased regulations and started fast-tracking test development. This company is waiting on a final batch of tests from South Korea to present their case to the FDA. Should happen in the next week or 2.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

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First of all, what are you even suggesting a bet on? All that type of comment really proves is you are here to be able to try and tell someone ?I told you so? and to troll. Go **** yourself.

Second of all, I?ve done nothing but question certain stats and graphics that have been posted (like the one I was commenting about that you quoted). I consider that doing my due diligence and not lapping up every single thing I read. Especially considering the amount of misinformation that is out there and some of which has undoubtedly been posted in this thread as things develop. You won?t find anywhere that I?ve said all of this is a big nothing burger and not something to be concerned with. All I?ve done is asked people to verify stats or comments or called out pure speculation.

There is no one that knows anything factual about what?s to come and it?s still entirely too early for the US to call any sort of shot. Pretending like you can is purely speculative.

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Originally Posted by StateDawg44

First of all, what are you even suggesting a bet on? All that type of comment really proves is you are here to be able to try and tell someone ?I told you so? and to troll. Go **** yourself.

Second of all, I?ve done nothing but question certain stats and graphics that have been posted (like the one I was commenting about that you quoted). I consider that doing my due diligence and not lapping up every single thing I read. Especially considering the amount of misinformation that is out there and some of which has undoubtedly been posted in this thread as things develop. You won?t find anywhere that I?ve said all of this is a big nothing burger and not something to be concerned with. All I?ve done is asked people to verify stats or comments or called out pure speculation.

There is no one that knows anything factual about what?s to come and it?s still entirely too early for the US to call any sort of shot. Pretending like you can is purely speculative.

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... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.

It is NOT pure speculation.

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Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer

Which country are you speaking of? I would agree that Taiwan (0.92%) and S. Korea (1.08%) have death rates that seem to be under control. But these three nations share a conviction that the People's Republic of China is not a friend and probably Taiwan (the Good Chinese people that FDR and Truman sold out) is especially careful of China. They are still on a war posture with China and/or the China satellite North Korea.

Other major free nations (Death rate %)....Germany (0.28%), UK (5.09%), Italy (8.29%), Spain (4.60%), Netherlands (3.08%), Canada (1.37%), Japan (3.49%), and France (3.37%). The US is 1.43%.

The other major issue is that each year there are 41M Americans traveling abroad. That's more people than Canada's entire population. Also the USA gets 3M visitors from China per year. Only Canadian and Mexican nationals visit the US more than Chinese nationals. US universities have 360K chinese students, Germany only has 36K. The US has more undocumented migrants than S Korea has people. The US also has the biggest companies in the world, you have legions of American expats working and traveling to china at any given moment.

I am not trying to be homer for any government official, the US actually is supposed to be a limited government society. So ordering and appropriating the supply chain of a particular industry is not the design of the US government, who owns the inventory and how do you account for the material? The mayor of New York, California Governor, US senators, and US presidents are not suppose issue directives to clinics, particular hospitals, or pharmacies. Even Martial Law and Curfew is going to get ACLU challenges before this is said and done. Then you have tort lawyers, that nobody else has on Earth. If a US test is 99.97% accurate and 8 people are false negative and they infect and kill a few people....that could destroy a company.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.

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Highly likely that people saying negative things about our country's response to the Chinese virus get their news from certain specific news outlets that are 24/7 critical of this President and his administration. I think he's done a fine job and to be honest I'm surprised we've been able to get anything done since literally everything the man wants to do is uniformly challenged by every democrat at all levels of government. I've never seen one side so out to get someone else in my life.

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Originally Posted by Mjoelner34

There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

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They need to approve that stat. I just saw how far back they go to test with the nasal swab. Any further and you risk brain damage. I'm certain Daryl has killed walkers without stabbing them that deeply.

I wouldn't doubt there are millions already with it. The rate celebs and sports players are testing positive all across the country without symptoms is kind of comical.

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Originally Posted by Matt3467

Highly likely that people saying negative things about our country's response to the Chinese virus get their news from certain specific news outlets that are 24/7 critical of this President and his administration. I think he's done a fine job and to be honest I'm surprised we've been able to get anything done since literally everything the man wants to do is uniformly challenged by every democrat at all levels of government. I've never seen one side so out to get someone else in my life.

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The Great Oppurdemic

We tested around 35,000 people yesterday. A week ago we were testing about 5,000 per day. This is a good thing.

One thing to keep in mind as our testing capacity increases: the growth in the number of positive cases is not 100% indicative of the spread of the virus. It's a function of both the spread of the virus AND the increase in tests. I think the numbers will still be sobering though.

We do seem to be doing much better on our death rate than Italy, Spain, etc. It remains to be seen if that % will start to go up as the medical system gets stressed.

I have also noticed a favorable trend in US death rate stat compared to others. I hope and pray it is significant, but I know it is early.

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Originally Posted by Mjoelner34

The FDA has eased regulations and started fast-tracking test development. This company is waiting on a final batch of tests from South Korea to present their case to the FDA. Should happen in the next week or 2.

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What I meant was it won't be available for months regardless. The peak will be hit before it's available. It'll be great in the future, but little help for this outbreak.

Germany has 20K infections but very few deaths

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-...d-da70cff6e4d3

They are testing 160K per day that’s x10 what South Korea did

Other interesting discovery in Germany is that their infected are much younger than Italy

Other personal thought is that if you survived Hitler, WW2, and Russian occupation as a baby - you are probably too tough to kill by a damn chinese cold

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.

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Speculation - the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.


Yes TRENDS can be derived and predicted but they are still not always true. That number is certainly attainable. I don?t disagree but to act like it?s a guarantee and there is firm evidence to use this early is actually... speculating.

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Originally Posted by deadheaddawg

It is NOT pure speculation.

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They may NOT be pure facts either. You are speculating just like I?m speculating. See how that works. But I damn sum at not claiming shit that can?t be proven right this second.

It?s a guess. There are too many variables for some of the numbers to not be off.

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

Cruise ship population does not equate to general population. The most accurate estimates we have right now are not good. Most people still have no clue what they're about to witness across America.

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Well, sure. But Italy's population doesn't equate to the USA's or Germany's or us to theirs. What you do have with the cruise ship is a closed, controlled population that tracks spread and mortality rate within that controlled population. You will never be able to better account for variables in large, uncontrolled populations while this virus is actively spreading (at least not for the first year probably). The cruise ship gives us a good snapshot and I think it's strong statistical numbers. It's some sobering stats. If 19% of Americans got this virus that is 57,000,000 people who could get this and if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% that is 684,000. If it rises to 3% then you are looking at approximate 1.7 million deaths.

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Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer

Germany has 20K infections but very few deaths

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-...d-da70cff6e4d3

They are testing 160K per day that?s x10 what South Korea did

Other interesting discovery in Germany is that their infected are much younger than Italy

Other personal thought is that if you survived Hitler, WW2, and Russian occupation as a baby - you are probably too tough to kill by a damn chinese cold

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I was coming on here to ask what the difference is between Germany and Spain. Similar number of cases, but Spain is floating around 5.5% mortality and Germany is at 0.3%. Is it because Germany is catching more mild cases due to more testing? The only other thing I see off the top is that Germany has a critical care capacity that is similar to ours, while Spain's is even smaller than Italy. I would also guess that Germany has a higher quality medical system than Spain, but I have nothing to back that up.

ETA: Spain has 9.7 critical care units/100,000 people. So I assume I can say 97/1,000,000? and currently has 533 cases/1,000,000

Germany has 292 CCUs/1,000,000 and only 256 cases/1,000,000 with more prevalent testing by the sounds of things, which would make a lower % of the 256/mil severe.

So maybe Spain has blown past its critical care ability already and Germany is still under control.

140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.

They added some more data:

At least 24% hospitalized

48% of cases < 50 years old

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...-chart-age.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...hart-onset.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...spitalized.png

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Originally Posted by Dawgology

Well, sure. But Italy's population doesn't equate to the USA's or Germany's or us to theirs. What you do have with the cruise ship is a closed, controlled population that tracks spread and mortality rate within that controlled population. You will never be able to better account for variables in large, uncontrolled populations while this virus is actively spreading (at least not for the first year probably). The cruise ship gives us a good snapshot and I think it's strong statistical numbers. It's some sobering stats. If 19% of Americans got this virus that is 57,000,000 people who could get this and if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% that is 684,000. If it rises to 3% then you are looking at approximate 1.7 million deaths.

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If you are talking about the ship in Japan yes it is a controlled population. One thing though, have you ever been on an overseas cruise? The average age on those is usually over 70.

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Originally Posted by hacker

140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.

They added some more data:

At least 24% hospitalized

48% of cases < 50 years old

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...-chart-age.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...hart-onset.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...spitalized.png

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Why do they stop there? What are the ages of the ones that are in hospital? Of the young (<50), what % are considered serious? Wish they'd release more

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

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Good read. Thanks

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Originally Posted by hacker

140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.

They added some more data:

At least 24% hospitalized

48% of cases < 50 years old

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...-chart-age.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...hart-onset.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...spitalized.png

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Expected increase with increased testing. And as has been said many more have it or have had it. Prolly has something to do with the increased percentage of 50+. Younger folks haven?t had to go to the dr with it as often.

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Originally Posted by dantheman4248

... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

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Where are the cherry picked stats that only favor one side of the argument?***


Just kidding. Good read for sure.

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Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most)

I was coming on here to ask what the difference is between Germany and Spain. Similar number of cases, but Spain is floating around 5.5% mortality and Germany is at 0.3%. Is it because Germany is catching more mild cases due to more testing? The only other thing I see off the top is that Germany has a critical care capacity that is similar to ours, while Spain's is even smaller than Italy. I would also guess that Germany has a higher quality medical system than Spain, but I have nothing to back that up.

ETA: Spain has 9.7 critical care units/100,000 people. So I assume I can say 97/1,000,000? and currently has 533 cases/1,000,000

Germany has 292 CCUs/1,000,000 and only 256 cases/1,000,000 with more prevalent testing by the sounds of things, which would make a lower % of the 256/mil severe.

So maybe Spain has blown past its critical care ability already and Germany is still under control.

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Something very positive about the Germany approach is that testing so many, especially young bucks that would normally be symptomless carriers - takes potential super spreaders out of the equation.

Holding everything else constant- that’s an interesting wrinkle

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

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Fantastic article

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

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No prayers for that guy?s loved ones!*

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Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

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Really good read. I been thinking some of the same things written in this article, as I'm sure others have too. And anyone claiming absolute knowledge of all the wealth of data out there is a fool. Unless every single person is tested, there are not absolute stats.

And if the government really wanted to help folks while they ain't working, they would make a temp law to suspend loan/mortgage payments and interest on principle for a while. But they don't want the big bankers to have to survive on less than multi-million dollar bonuses each year. Those banks are still gonna expect those payments to be made up somehow ... I can guarantee you that.

In the meantime, 4 republican Senators and Feinstein got out of the market well in advance of the crash and made millions.