They're gonna be right in the end no matter what, aren't they? 2 million to 60k to 134kQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
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They're gonna be right in the end no matter what, aren't they? 2 million to 60k to 134kQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
MDH is to blame. And they do indeed suck! Nobody is using them with testing. They can't even get simple numbers correct. And it's a shame, because Dobbs is a good guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Yeah Dr Dobbs is an excellent physician and good man. MDH has struggled with this since the get go.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Show me where IHME projected 2 million.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Y'all sure did love this model when it unrealistically dropped to 60k. Hmm
Damn, sorry... it was a lot more than 60k, but dropped. I liked it bc it was hopeful. Sorry, I didn't want this to be so tragic.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
C'mon, 7. Obviously everyone wants to be hopeful. That's a flawed argument here; it's about being realistic, and most importantly, being prepared for realistic projections.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Fair enough, I understand wanting to have hope.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
But I want to be realistic because a lot of people still aren't taking it seriously, which leads to more dead people in the end.
I saw a pretty good explainer on this model the other day. It talks about how the model was developed. One of the big issues that I know you've been pointing out was that they were just fitting the data to a Gaussian curve which is why it kept unrealistically dropping to zero. As opposed to what more sophisticated models were doing modeling population spread more realistically but with much higher uncertainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Worth a read.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...-ihme-pandemic
Parks and restaurants opening to half capacity in MS..... have fun with that.
Also just wanted to add, this model assumes our social distancing continues at the same rate.
Yeah. And it looks like they've addressed that issue in the latest update, which is a big reason why the numbers are drastically higher now.Quote:
Originally Posted by dparker
Do y'all think MS will have 782 covid deaths or more? I say that number bc that is how many flu deaths we had in 2017 (couldn't find 2018 or 2019 stats). And yes, I know covid is more contagious than the flu, I'm just saying from total death numbers, will we lose more people to covid than the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/s...ississippi.htm
Social distancing slows deaths. Doesn't stop them. I've seen no evidence that says social distancing is a way to stop it. Tell me how I'm wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Yeah. We will before it's over. Now in what time frame I don't know.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
For the whole year, 2020, I say yeah. Seems there would be no doubt though considering covid19 is considered much more deadly and there's no vaccine like with the fluQuote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Is this a positive or negative post. Gotta stay negative dude ***Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Yeah it elongates the curve, doesn't stop it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
That's what I thought... yet let's hang on to a disaster to make it longer. Suicide rate for 20 and beyond going to be through the roof.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
It will be way more than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
For the year i Agree it will be more. How much who knows. 40% of all MS deaths are LTC facilities. While tragic, some of those would have died anyway. Sad but true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg