Arkansas Pine Bluff - Tuesday Baseball Thread

Obviously this isn't the worst loss we've had in football, basketball, or baseball.

But this is really really awful. Anyone who knows dick about the RPI formula should be pissed off right now. Our chances of hosting took a huge hit tonight... I don't want to put a percentage by it, but we are considerably less likely to host.

And besides all that, we've looked really bad offensively the past SEVERAL games- I mean, downright putrid and anemic. I honestly can't remember the last XBH we've hit by anyone other than Wes Rea. We've had to rely on people walking in runs, making errors on bunts, etc. to score- and that shit won't translate in SEC play. This offense is looking shockingly similar to last season's, and it is going to get much worse is something doesn't change in a hurry. If we don't get guys healthy and get our pop back, we're in for a rude awakening come conference play (if tonight's game wasn't already rude enough).

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Step off the ledge everyone. We're 13-1.

Our final RPI will be the same losing this 1 game as it would if we'd been 12-1 through the first 13 and then won tonight. Obviously 13-1 would have been acceptable to everyone on this board if we'd known that before the season started.

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I think this is actually correct. It's weighted by home/road, but I don't think the formula evaluates who you beat and who you lose to. I think it just takes your overall record, your opponents' overall record, and their opponents' overall record.

The last guy didnt get in trouble because he pumped the zone with strikes and made us hit our way on base. I'm a bit worried about facing good pitches who throw strikes when we arent getting 7-8 walks a game (we got some walks early this game and just couldnt capitalize). Will be something to keep an eye on

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Originally Posted by Irondawg

The thing that bothers me is that working the counts and stuff is great but when you have runners in scoring position you have to be looking for a pitch you can hit. We didn't have that attitude and got two strikes on us and struck out on a lot of balls out of the zone. We had some really terrible at bats those first 4 innings

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Usually against a SWAC team- typically they have wild pitchers. Which means you're not going to get a lot to hit that is good. So, you have to work the count and let them get behind and BE PATIENT. The worst thing you can do is get yourself out by swinging at pitches out of the zone. When you do that as a hitter you play right into their hands.

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Originally Posted by Irondawg

The thing that bothers me is that working the counts and stuff is great but when you have runners in scoring position you have to be looking for a pitch you can hit. We didn't have that attitude and got two strikes on us and struck out on a lot of balls out of the zone. We had some really terrible at bats those first 4 innings

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We watched wayyyyyy too many fastballs down the middle today, 6 hits against a SWAC team is inexcusable. But remember that Lafayette lost to JSU last year. Games like this happen in baseball, gotta put it behind us tomorrow and sweep San Diego this weekend

Our offense has struggled over the last few games, but I still think we'll be fine.

Heck is going to hit. Collins is going to hit when he comes back. I think Robson has absolutely turned a corner and will hit. Rea should perform better than last year. And I still think guys like Humphreys, Smith, and Holland will be fine.

Offense always comes and goes in stretches, at least to an extent. It's why pitching and defense are so important. And I still love what we have there.

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Originally Posted by smootness

I think this is actually correct. It's weighted by home/road, but I don't think the formula evaluates who you beat and who you lose to. I think it just takes your overall record, your opponents' overall record, and their opponents' overall record.

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That's why I am pissed. RPI does indeed look at who you beat and who you lose to. Otherwise, what's the point in playing someone out of the ACC or PAC-12?

C'mon guys! It's a bad loss, but it's just one baseball game. It just means we need to make up for it by winning an additional game or two versus a quality opponent. If it proves to be indicative of our play this year, then we can look back and say, "The signs were there in the APB game".

But let's not throw-the-baby-out-with-the-bathwater. Baseball truly is one of those games that lends itself to a better team having a bad day the same time a worse team has a good day. It's why the bet teams in MLB are gonna lose at least a third of their games every year, some to the very worst teams in the league.

Let's wait and see how this team responds.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyQuid

The last guy didnt get in trouble because he pumped the zone with strikes and made us hit our way on base. I'm a bit worried about facing good pitches who throw strikes when we arent getting 7-8 walks a game (we got some walks early this game and just couldnt capitalize). Will be something to keep an eye on

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That was my exact point in another thread. We are NOT hitting the ball right now. It should have been a BIG red flag that we only had around 8 hits in each of our 2 games against lousy Samford pitching. We are getting totally dependent on walks, HBP, errors, and creating havoc on the bases. However, when we play sound teams with solid pitching and a good defense we are going to have to hit the ball more than we have been to score. Otherwise, we are going to put a LOT of pressure on our pitching. We don't even look right now like the offense we had the first 2 weekends of the season.

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Originally Posted by smootness

And this is my point. As long as we don't go lose a series to San Diego plus WKU, or something like that, people will simply look back and go, 'Can you believe State lost to APB?' But that's all it will be.

It's not like no matter what we do this year, people are going to say, 'They're not any good, look at this one game!'

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We're Mississippi State. Any time we have a loss like this, the media ALWAYS points it out.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

That's why I am pissed. RPI does indeed look at who you beat and who you lose to. Otherwise, what's the point in playing someone out of the ACC or PAC-12?

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If we'd lost one game to Cincinnati and won tonight it would wash out the RPI because they're both home games. Our win % would be the same, our SOS would be the same (because other teams' games against you don't count in RPI).

Not trying to excuse tonight or anything, just pointing out that if we'd lost a game to Cincinnati and won tonight, we'd all be pretty happy with being 13-1 right now and our RPI would be the same as it is.

Yes, this loss will presumably look worse to the Selection Committee than a loss to Cincinnati would when they judge subjectively, but our objective measures would be the same.

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Originally Posted by maroonmania

That was my exact point in another thread. We are NOT hitting the ball right now. It should have been a BIG red flag that we only had around 8 hits in each of our 2 games against lousy Samford pitching. We are getting totally dependent on walks, HBP, errors, and creating havoc on the bases. However, when we play sound teams with solid pitching and a good defense we are going to have to hit the ball more than we have been to score. Otherwise, we are going to put a LOT of pressure on our pitching. We don't even look right now like the offense we had the first 2 weekends of the season.

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The thing about our offense is Rea was really the only power guy we played. Humphreys was sick, Collins was hurt, and he didn't play Rooker a lot. Literally every power hitter has been out lately. When you take those four guys out, then we HAVE to rely on small ball because we simply have no power other than Rea.

When those guys come back- and they are pretty much just about all the way back now- we'll be OK. Tonight was more about giving away at bats and striking out too much.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

That's why I am pissed. RPI does indeed look at who you beat and who you lose to. Otherwise, what's the point in playing someone out of the ACC or PAC-12?

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Because it improves your SOS.

But I think as long as you're still playing the games in the same place, your RPI will finish the same regardless of where your wins and losses specifically come, so long as your overall record is the same.

In other words, as Quaoarsking is saying, if we finish 24-1 in the OOC, it doesn't matter who that loss was to. Or if you go 23-2, it doesn't matter if you lose 2 to Arizona and beat everybody else, or if you lose to APB and WKU.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

The thing about our offense is Rea was really the only power guy we played. Humphreys was sick, Collins was hurt, and he didn't play Rooker a lot. Literally every power hitter has been out lately. When you take those four guys out, then we HAVE to rely on small ball because we simply have no power other than Rea.

When those guys come back- and they are pretty much just about all the way back now- we'll be OK. Tonight was more about giving away at bats and striking out too much.

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Even small ball requires more than 7 or 8 hits in a game. Especially when they are all singles. We only got 6 tonight.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

If we'd lost one game to Cincinnati and won tonight it would wash out the RPI because they're both home games. Our win % would be the same, our SOS would be the same (because other teams' games against you don't count in RPI).

Not trying to excuse tonight or anything, just pointing out that if we'd lost a game to Cincinnati and won tonight, we'd all be pretty happy with being 13-1 right now and our RPI would be the same as it is.

Yes, this loss will presumably look worse to the Selection Committee than a loss to Cincinnati would when they judge subjectively, but our objective measures would be the same.

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I'm not unhappy with our record at all. We will be fine in the long run record wise. I'm just saying a loss to Cincinnati likely wouldn't be viewed as bad as a loss to Arkansas- Pine Bluff will be. Cincinnati is in the American Conference and has a first round pick second baseman. The committee is going to take a look at everything and I guarantee you that if we're on the bubble for hosting- this will be a HUGE black mark on our resume.

Most of us view how the committee looks at this based on us following the sport over time.

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Originally Posted by War Machine Dawg

How much would you hate showing up for practice with the Intense Bastard tomorrow and Thursday? I'd imagine it will be hell.

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He is perfectly capable of going Augie Garrido on every last one of them. And he needs to. That is as bad a loss as Cohen has taken considering what is on the line with our abysmal schedule. This is why you don't schedule like we have. Because if you do, you cannot lose a single one without getting your backs against the wall only 3 weeks in. Inexcusable in every possible way.

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Originally Posted by maroonmania

Even small ball requires more than 7 or 8 hits in a game. Especially when they are all singles. We only got 6 tonight.

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Absolutely- IF all you are is a small ball team. That's why I also like/want the power component too- so that we have some of both. The thing about tonight is we didn't do much small ball stuff- I think we had one bunt single and maybe a stolen base. And I'm not saying we should have done more small ball stuff- the thing is we struck out way too many times.

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Originally Posted by smootness

Because it improves your SOS.

But I think as long as you're still playing the games in the same place, your RPI will finish the same regardless of where your wins and losses specifically come, so long as your overall record is the same.

In other words, as Quaoarsking is saying, if we finish 24-1 in the OOC, it doesn't matter who that loss was to. Or if you go 23-2, it doesn't matter if you lose 2 to Arizona and beat everybody else, or if you lose to APB and WKU.

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I understand that our SOS won't change- but the committee typically places more weight on RPI.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Actually we're pretty experienced. We just had our heads up our ass. We gave away too many at bats. Just like last year. Obviously, this was the worst we played this year, but the second worst was against Alabama A&M. We just don't respect teams out of the SWAC and it cost us- and it has almost cost us a couple of times before. We would have lost to Alcorn in 2013 had Renfroe not bailed us out.

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With the exception of Heck, Vickerson and Rea it was basically all first yr regulars in our lineup plus McCord. Inexperienced playing with our uniform and expectations. Played offense like dogshit but inexperienced nonetheless.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

I understand that our SOS won't change- but the committee typically places more weight on RPI.

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And my point is that I don't think our RPI changes, as long as it's the same number of losses, based on when those losses come.

I think this loss hurts us more subjectively than it does objectively.

As Quaoarsking said, I think the RPI will be the same as it would be if we were 13-1 with a loss to Cincinnati instead. Your RPI doesn't suffer more due to bad losses. It just takes your record as a whole and your SOS as a whole.