Should you hit or stay on 18. Hitting and getting a 3 doesn't mean its the right play. Thats the point. One option works 70% of the time. One about 58%. I'm going with 70.Quote:
Originally Posted by whosyourdawgy
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Should you hit or stay on 18. Hitting and getting a 3 doesn't mean its the right play. Thats the point. One option works 70% of the time. One about 58%. I'm going with 70.Quote:
Originally Posted by whosyourdawgy
I don't think you ever actually played the game of baseball. You get slide rules...baseball bats not so much
Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
Outs 0 1 2 Empty 32% 18% 07% 1st 49% 32% 15% 2nd 70% 47% 25% 1st and 2nd 71% 49% 27% 3rd 89% 73% 32% 1st and 3rd 89% 70% 34% 2nd and 3rd 89% 73% 32% Loaded 90% 72% 39%
Can you guarantee the bunt has a 97% success rate. No. MLB rates are 50%. That makes the bunt here give us a 60% (73+47)/2 chance of success. Not bunting gives a 70% chance of scoring. I figured this game full of buntfails would resonate but sadly no
Some people will always being up the exceptions to "prove" the odds wrong. Glad we won, but I'm with you on the bunt thing in general. Depends on who is at bat though and if you only need the 1 run.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
Your table doesn't mean shit because of the situation the game was in. Also you can't just take 2 percentages and divide by 2...what in the samshit is that? The % increases from man on 2nd with no outs to man on 3rd with 1 out. But more dramatically so I would imagine when the defense HAS to stop that run in the late innings and what it causes the pitcher and defense to have to do (human element). It's situational baseball not algorithms and calculators. You'll never get it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
WTF is this? So bunting him to 3rd gives us a 60 percent chance to score with no outs? Where is the chart for hitting away with a man on 2nd and no outs? In the 8th inning, leading 4-1
I'm not disputing the "odds" but in THAT baseball situation it's the right call 100% of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Will?Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
Assuming a 50% bunt success rate, which is what the MLB rate is, you absolutely add them together and divide by 2.Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
Are you and WinningIsRelentless cousins? How is that chart hard to comprehend.Quote:
Originally Posted by whosyourdawgy
What makes you assume a successful bunt?Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
I'm not assuming a successful bunt dumbass. It's the right CALL. If it doesn't work it doesn't work but it's the right call.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
Oh I see So bunting him to 3rd increased his chances of scoring from 70 to 73 percent. I see now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
If the bunt is successful....Quote:
Originally Posted by whosyourdawgy
Will, here is where you go horribly wrong:Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
You cant use MLB stats for college players. MLB players are more efficient in every aspect of the game- including bunt defense. Plus there is a wider talent discrepancy in college baseball team to team than there is in MLB
You dont include the human element- those percentages differ in the late innings with the game on the line vs earlier in the game when players are more relaxed
You think Hunter Renfroe was even remotely clutch
If the bunt is successful....Quote:
Originally Posted by whosyourdawgy
Bunters are much worse in college.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Taking every time with a 3-2 count is the right call because you could get a walk. Sometimes they throw a strike but its still the right CALL*Quote:
Originally Posted by I seen it dawg
so is bunt defense and pitchers throwing strikesQuote:
Originally Posted by Will James
I'm now convinced of 2 things...you've never played real baseball and you are 13Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James