Don't look now Braves fans

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Originally Posted by TheRef

The Garner argument is null and void since he's gone...so can we drop that subject? Please?

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Its relevant to going forward with Rea/Ingram the option at 1B.

Its nice that you play ref in the game threads but if you dont want to see something move along. Its not your job to decide what is discussed.

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

Its relevant to going forward with Rea/Ingram the option at 1B.

Its nice that you play ref in the game threads but if you dont want to see something move along. Its not your job to decide what is discussed.

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I'm not trying to decide what's being discussed. I'm just trying to keep a dead horse from being beaten to a slimy pulp. But hey...to each their own.

http://youtu.be/DQDAjyehMhc

Todd Frazier is 133rd out of 163 qualified hitters in FB%

82% of MLB hitters see more fastballs than Frazier.

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

Todd Frazier is 133rd out of 163 qualified hitters in FB%

82% of MLB hitters see more fastballs than Frazier.

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Guess he gets nothing but fastballs when BH is on base then

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Guess he gets nothing but fastballs when BH is on base then

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Makes sense seeing as how his FB% is so low!

BOOM

Set em up and I'll knock em down

http://a.fod4.com/misc/Bowling%20So%20Many%20Pins.gif

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

Makes sense seeing as how his FB% is so low!

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Actually it does if you think about it. Billy Hamilton is the fastest player in the league. If the other team has any chance to get him out on a steal attempt they must throw a fastball so if Todd Frazier sees a fastball it must be when Billy Hamilton is on base since Todd Frazier sees less fastballs than 82% of the league.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Actually it does if you think about it. Billy Hamilton is the fastest player in the league. If the other team has any chance to get him out on a steal attempt they must throw a fastball so if Todd Frazier sees a fastball it must be when Billy Hamilton is on base since Todd Frazier sees less fastballs than 82% of the league.

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Yeah I wasn't knocking you or anything it was just naturally perfect that the circle came back around to BH's lack of OBP.

Frazier is a better hitter on balls away so actually there is a good chance of merit to what you are saying. IF Frazier is getting fastballs away WHEN BH is on 1st AND thats where he is excelling (which it looks like he is) then all is well in the universe. That would be maximizing Frazier. Now is a slight bump in Frazier worth BH low OBP at leadoff? Id say probably not.


ETA to note that I never dismissed the argument. Research showed that he still doesn't get many fastballs overall which I think is about all I've said on the BH-Reds topic. After doing more research there is nowhere I can find Fraziers #'s with BH on 1st but it would not be a bad hypothesis to assume that what Dawg61 is saying has merit.

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

"The ELITE base stealers that can get on ARE a weapon. That's the point. You have to use the numbers to determine which one is the most beneficial. USE THE NUMBERS. OBP, MATCHUPS, SB% all factor into a formula"

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Is BH-Frazier the maximum that the Reds can come up with? Maybe. I'd go with Votto when healthy probably. But again its about MAXIMIZING all offensive output. That formula may very well be that BH leading off Frazier 2nd is most efficient right now especially with Votto out. That would be VERY sabermetric.

BH SB% is still just 74%.. Leads MLB with 12 CS

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

Now is a slight bump in Frazier worth BH low OBP at leadoff? Id say probably not.

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Slight bump is the understatement of the year. Frazier is a totally different player this year and so is Devin Mesoraco. Billy Hamilton has the same slugging % as Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton has 35 steals. Give Hamilton two years and he'll be a top 5 leadoff hitter.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

I think baseball is starting to transition a little bit because of the lack of offense. And because of guys like Beane speed has gotten undervalued for years- and even going back to the steroid era. A couple of those guys are really young players like Hamilton, who are going to get better as time goes on. When offense goes down, teams start to look for ways to try to create it. We've seen that in college. I think some teams are willing to take some lumps now in hopes that those players are better down the road. We'll see if it works or not.

At any rate, MLB has got to start getting hitters back to using the whole field, they need to stop trying to pull everything, and they need to stop trying to work the count every single time up and they need to start being aggressive.

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Honestly, I don't see the transition. It's always been a traditional baseball strategy to put a speed guy at the lead off spot, and I don't think the majority of baseball has bought into putting the high on base guy at the lead off spot.

I think the problem with offense is just the opposite. Players do not know how to work the count, they are too aggressive and over swing, and there is too much reliance upon power to score.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Guess he gets nothing but fastballs when BH is on base then

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Then his fastball percentage is so low because Hamilton is rarely on base.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Then his fastball percentage is so low because Hamilton is rarely on base.

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Billy Hamilton's better slugging and gigantic speed advantage over a player like La'Stella more than makes up the lower OBP and then you have to realize his threat on the steal makes the 2nd hole hitter a more dangerous hitter. Speed makes the 2 hole hitter better. It's common sense that it does. The pitcher isn't going to throw balls and risk 2 guys on base for the more powerful 3,4,5 hitters and the pitcher isn't going to throw a bunch of off-speed pitches because that makes it almost impossible to throw out the base stealer. Fastballs pumped in the strike zone for the 2hole hitter. Braves should try BJ leadoff and Heyward in the 2 hole imo. Heyward has only grounded into 2 double plays all year long. Of course if I was the Braves GM i'd give up a stud pitcher for a Brian Dozier type to leadoff.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Billy Hamilton's better slugging and gigantic speed advantage over a player like La'Stella more than makes up the lower OBP and then you have to realize his threat on the steal makes the 2nd hole hitter a more dangerous hitter. Speed makes the 2 hole hitter better. It's common sense that it does. The pitcher isn't going to throw balls and risk 2 guys on base for the more powerful 3,4,5 hitters and the pitcher isn't going to throw a bunch of off-speed pitches because that makes it almost impossible to throw out the base stealer. Fastballs pumped in the strike zone for the 2hole hitter. Braves should try BJ leadoff and Heyward in the 2 hole imo. Heyward has only grounded into 2 double plays all year long. Of course if I was the Braves GM i'd give up a stud pitcher for a Brian Dozier type to leadoff.

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Billy Hamilton 698 OPS, 306 wOBA
Tommy La Stella 744 OPS, 335 wOBA

You can look at the value of that speed with the wRC stat. wOBA combines the aspects of OBP and SLG into one nice category. Dawg61 you greatly devalue getting on-base and are overstating Hamilton's speed aspect given his 12 caught stealings.

Hamilton has a wRC+ of 92 and wOBA of .306
La Stella has a wRC+ of 114 and wOBA of .335
BJ Upton has a wRC+ of 73 and wOBA of .275

Carlos Tosca already making better managerial decisions than Fredi. Fredi's idea of a defensive replacement late in the game is to pull Tommy La Stella out of the game when he is not a defensive liability. In the process, he leaves the guy who is a defensive liability in the game in Chris Johnson. Tonight, when Carlos subbed Pena in for defensive purposes, he pulled Johnson, not La Stella.

Carlos Tosca for manager!!

He also correctly identified when Shae Simmons's command was waning, even though Shae struck out the batter. Bethancourt had just set up on the outside part of the plate to a left handed hitter, and Shae's slider bit hard to the inside corner of the plate.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Billy Hamilton 698 OPS, 306 wOBA
Tommy La Stella 744 OPS, 335 wOBA

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Billy Hamilton 42 Runs 35 stolen bases, tonight went 2-4 with a triple 1 run 1 walk 4 rbi
Tommy La Stella 11 Runs 2 stolen bases, tonight went 1-4 with a walk

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

Dawg61 you greatly devalue getting on-base and are overstating Hamilton's speed aspect given his 12 caught stealings.

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Are pickoffs included in "caught stealings"? I watched Bumgarner and Lincecum pick off Hamilton 3 times a few weeks ago. He's a rookie and the veteran pitchers are owning him a little with their pickoff moves right now. He will learn every one of their moves going forward.

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Billy Hamilton 42 Runs 35 stolen bases, tonight went 2-4 with a triple 1 run 1 walk 4 rbi
Tommy La Stella 11 Runs 2 stolen bases, tonight went 1-4 with a walk

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I could care less about the stolen bases, and his 42 runs scored are because he has Todd Frazier and Freddie Freeman hitting behind him. Tommy La Stella has had either Andrelton Simmons or Gerald Laird batting behind him along with the pitcher.

Kyle Wren stole home tonight for Mississippi. Now this is a player whose speed is actually a weapon because of his on base ability. Kyle has a career .381 OBP in the minors to this point. He's at about 81% on his stolen base percentage. He doesn't strike out a lot and walks at a solid rate.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Carlos Tosca already making better managerial decisions than Fredi. Fredi's idea of a defensive replacement late in the game is to pull Tommy La Stella out of the game when he is not a defensive liability. In the process, he leaves the guy who is a defensive liability in the game in Chris Johnson. Tonight, when Carlos subbed Pena in for defensive purposes, he pulled Johnson, not La Stella.

Carlos Tosca for manager!!

He also correctly identified when Shae Simmons's command was waning, even though Shae struck out the batter. Bethancourt had just set up on the outside part of the plate to a left handed hitter, and Shae's slider bit hard to the inside corner of the plate.

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Too bad fredi got ejected after the 8th. We have a 1-run lead in the 8th and go to maybe our worst rp (avilan). The 8th inning with a lead should be Simmons or walden only!