Or...we can cinch up the old nutsack, wear a mask, wash your hands, and get back to work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
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Or...we can cinch up the old nutsack, wear a mask, wash your hands, and get back to work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
I need the math on that...Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
If we assume the high end numbers of asymtomatic untested people that have had Covid at 10x the positives, that's ~43 million people.
If we assume the lowest end of people needed for Herd Immunity of 40%.
There are ~330 million people in the US.
We need ~132 million infected.
That's 3x the number of people infected now.....
That's 3 million new cases a day....
And those are the best case numbers....
If it's 2x infected per positive cases and 80% for Herd Immunity, we'd need 30 times the number infected right now....
Cinch up the rucksack, put one foot in front of the other and drive on.
At this point, such an approach may be our only realistic option. Like they say, it?s too late to close the gate because the dogs already out of the pen.
Actually, the economy is getting wrecked. Recent data is indicating the recovery is stalling, and I imagine the Fed will say as much tomorrow. And if the Fed is admitting it, that mean's it's even worse. Hopefully with the recent downturn in Covid infections in the hot zone states, the recovery can pick back up, but until people start flying and traveling again, it's going to be a long tough slog. And we still haven't seen the worst from the banks and commercial real estate fallout.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
This guy says maybe at 20%Quote:
Originally Posted by SheltonChoked
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...rticle/614035/
Anyone thinking herd immunity is a possibility in the near future is simply wrong. Herd immunity is being used as an excuse for our inability to handle this shit.
I meant MS alone, but the same can apply to America.Quote:
Originally Posted by SheltonChoked
The cdc last week said best estimate of actual case count is somewhere between 6 and 24 times the confirmed test count. But I'm fine with going with the x10 factor. MS is at 56k, x10 puts that at 560k.
The below article cites studies that saw herd immunity for covid setting in at 20%. That is the case in places like NY and NJ that reached 20%. Florida's daily case count has been falling since July 17, and it just yesterday got to 20% using the x10 factor. I suspect its case average will keep falling. Alabama 7 day case count has been falling for 11 days and it is approaching 20% in the next few weeks.
Even at 25%, or 750k, we should be there in less than a month using the x10 factor (meaning 75k confirmed cases). We'll see.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614035/
Interesting read. Thanks for the link.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
But my takeaway is that nobody knows and that the popular notion of "natural herd immunity" seems to be missing the mark. A couple of the people quoted in that article who give numeric "herd immunity" estimates are mathematicians. One of those mathematicians (who studies chaos theory in Scotland) thinks it could be as low as 20%, but even then she admits that her calculations seem optimistic. Another mathematician, this time from Stockholm, thinks 20% is unlikely but that ~40% could be possible. The article next says that an epidemiologist at Harvard says that he thinks the range is anywhere from 20% to 60%, but that the lower end of that is more unlikely than the higher end. And finally, the article quotes a couple of other people -- biologists who study epidemiology and infectious disease modelling -- who cast doubt on the current lip service being played to "natural herd immunity" in popular discourse:
Quote:
What's important to [one scientist], rather, is that people are not misled by the idea of herd immunity. In the context of vaccination, herd-immunity thresholds are relatively fixed and predictable. In the context of an ongoing pandemic, thinking of this threshold as some static concept can be dangerously misleading.
"During the last few months, we've started talking about 'natural herd immunity' and what would be used to block future waves," says Shweta Bansal, an associate professor [of biology] at Georgetown University who studies how social interactions influence infectious diseases. She worries that many people conflate academic projections about reaching herd immunity with a "let it run wild" fatalism. "My view is that trying to take that route would lead to mass death and devastation," she says.
Indeed, letting a new, rapidly spreading virus run unchecked in a population with zero immunity could mean that nearly everyone in a given location gets infected. With vaccination, the herd-immunity threshold is vital to guiding policy and medical practice: If about 90 percent of people are vaccinated against measles, for example, then, accounting for waning antibodies and variable immune responses, it's safe to assume that 60 or 70 percent are protected and the population isn't at risk of an outbreak. But that concept doesn't clearly apply when a highly contagious virus hits a population with zero immunity. Left totally unchecked, Bansal says, the percentage of infected people could go even higher than 70 percent.
By definition, dynamic systems don't deal in static numbers. Any such herd-immunity threshold is context-dependent and constantly shifting. It will change over time and space. It varies depending on the basic reproduction number -- the average number of new infections caused by an infected individual. During the early stage of an outbreak of a new virus (to which no one has immunity), that number will be higher. The number is skewed by super-spreading events, such as when one person in a choir infects 50 others. And the number in a dense city such as New York should be expected to be higher than that in rural Alaska. "Within certain populations that lack heterogeneity, like within a nursing home or school, you may even see the herd-immunity threshold be above 70 percent," Bansal says. If a population average led people in those settings to get complacent, there could be needless death.
"We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20%. It's very striking."Quote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
Hopefully she is right.
I hope she's right, too. Her calculations are the most optimistic ones among those that they interviewed in the article, though. The other mathematician and the epidemiologist thought otherwise. And I'd be interested to know her take on the two other scientists who cast doubt upon the concept of conflating vaccine-based herd immunity theory with projections during a pandemic where most people don't start out as immune.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
But again, yeah, I'm all for kicking this crap sooner than later.
Random aside since the optimistic lady was Scottish: It was National Scotch Day on Monday. I celebrated with some Compass Box. Solid holiday.
Ha! I just realized autocorrect changed rucksack to nutsack on my post. Jeezus...what’s wrong with me.. lmao!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
The videos are on her Facebook page, and she doubled down on it in a Tweet today.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
And this is the person being platformed by POTUS and his minions, and defended here. Tarantino couldn't write a script this good. It's like we're literally living in Idiocracy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg2003
https://i.ibb.co/GCBgFM3/si-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/QHZWrPX/si-2.png
Is it just me or does she resemble Esther Rolle from Good Times? Speaking of Incubus, are they still touring?Quote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
It's rather simple. Quit requiring mandatory testing for everything.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
I guess if we quit testing it will just disappear, like magic?
Locally (Madison County, Alabama) has seen a sharp, 65% or so, decrease in Covid cases after three weeks of mandatory masking. Masks work.
Yeah, that would do the trick.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
Yeah, this one is beyond belief. I can perhaps see him supporting her at first (but should vet everybody) but not defend her after her qualifications came out.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
Ohio has just banned use of hydroxychloroquine for corona.
We have a toddler who is a fool for a president. We're a laughingstock in the world and banned from entry into Canada and Europe. It takes extreme cognitive dissonance to continue to support this fiasco.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
Exactly. And that's the case for anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
Absolutely. LolQuote:
Originally Posted by SteelCurtain74
Not to mention, we have the highest test positive % in the country right now. In other words, we're missing more cases than any other state.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond
But I noticed something today while on a road trip with my daughter. Almost everybody I saw in Washington County was wearing masks. As soon as I crossed the river into Arkansas, nobody was wearing them. Arkansas even has a statewide mandate.
Dawg2003, I concur.
Not sure what the testing requirements are every where in the state, but I know the Choctaw Indians had a radio ad saying you have to referred to get tested. Is it still a requirement for most that you show symptoms to be tested?Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Not in Madison. Anybody who wants a test can get one. Had a coworker get tested today and got results back tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
CDC Director Says There are More Suicides and Overdoses than COVID Deaths
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/micael...eaths-n2573278
7 day case average falls again after today. Good progress.
He seems to be talking about the current suicide and overdose rate among high-school-age kids compared to the COVID mortality rate among that same age group, right? The article's not super clear, but that's what I gather. It opens with the statement that the CDC director contends that "suicides and drug overdoses have surpassed the death rate for COVID-19 among high school students," which seems simple enough. But then later on, after noting that there aren't current stats available for this stuff, it gives anecdotal evidence from a few random cities. But then it also notes that combined suicides and overdoses for all age groups for the entire country in 2018 or 2019 totaled roughly 120,000, which is obviously less than five months worth of COVID fatalities.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
So yeah, not sure what's what with that piece. General point about the need to address psychological issues resulting from quarantining, distancing, and the like seems fair enough, though.
This was a direct quote though, and I think it's one of the reasons the CDC wants kids in school...Quote:
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
"But there has been another cost that we?ve seen, particularly in high schools," Redfield said. "We?re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We?re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID. So this is why I keep coming back for the overall social being of individuals, is let?s all work together and find out how we can find common ground to get these schools open in a way that people are comfortable and their safe."
If we're worried about kids' mental health, I don't think sending kids back to in-person school in this climate is going to help. They're gonna be constantly worried about getting sick or bringing it home to their family. They're gonna see teachers get sick and possibly die. They're gonna see classmates get sick and possibly die. They'll constantly wonder when it's going to happen to them.
It's like Redfield's teetering on the edge of understanding that, but not quite there. Or maybe he does understand but since he's Trump's boy he's just gonna keep filling the airwaves with bullshit for who knows what reason.
'Science should not stand in the way' of schools reopening, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany says.
Infuriating.
That's your thinking not what they are thinking. Children are not getting sick from this. They may get it but are not getting sick, and especially not dying from it. They are not worrying about transferring it unless you scare them with your agenda.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
They are getting sick, they are being hospitalized, and they are dying. The probability is very low, but it's happening. It's been happening without them being in school. Now imagine a bunch of kids in a classroom all day. That's only going to make it worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sienfield
https://www.greenvilleonline.com/sto...ay/5535813002/
https://www.nwahomepage.com/knwa/fir...complications/
https://local12.com/news/nation-worl...-into-hospital
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronav...i34-story.html
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/lo...243591547.html
Do you have a child? Do you look forward to sending him or her into a situation that even has a remote possibility of ending up with your kid hospitalized or dead? I sure don't.
So you don't send your kids to school during flu season? Let them ride in cars? Let them swim? All have the same remote possibility, even higher actually.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
So, of the 1500 or so cases yesterday, over 500 of them were prison inmates and LTC patients.
That's a good point, but to me, those things are different. I grew up with those risks. It's normalized. They're also well-researched and we know a lot about them. We have flu vaccines, tamiflu, seatbelts, airbags, safety jackets, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Covid is additional risk that we don't know a lot about and we definitely don't have a vaccine or tamiflu equivalent yet.
Am I still going to send my daughter to school? Yes. Do I think it's dumb to have in-person classes this semester? Also, yes.
I've not seen a single district that didn't offer a virtual option.
Talk about misinformation...Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Reported this morning that Herman Cain passed away from COVID.