Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Since you don't like the Braves you should be happy with BJ leading off all season longQuote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Since you don't like the Braves you should be happy with BJ leading off all season longQuote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
And you again fail to understand baseball. Playing a guy while he is hot IS maximizing every game. I guess the Braves 9 game win streak means nothing.**Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Let me help you try to understand- even though I know this will be above your head. Baseball is a game of streaks and highs and lows. The stats that are accumulated don't occur in an even distribution. IF they did, the sabermetric way would make sense every single time. But it is played out on the field- and things occur at random. If you play a guy who is hot who is getting his runs in a chunk (ie hot streak) you keep playing them. When he gets cold, then you stop or you move him. It really is that simple.
And you can't sit there and tell me that Upton's 0.3 less runs is why the Braves lost a game by 2. It's a total team effort and beating the hell out of one spot in the order is short sighted on your part at best.
It's no different than when we kept giving the ball to Perkins in the Egg Bowl in 2010 even though Ballard was the better RB. Perkins was hot, so we kept giving him the ball. What you are saying would be like saying that since Ballard is the better RB, we should have kept giving him the ball and ignored Perkins because at some point Perkins was going to stop being hot. Well, you take advantage of players that are hot when they are hot. Otherwise you waste them.
I know you want it to be simple because you don't know or understand a lot about the sport and it's just easier to punch numbers into a computer and go with whatever the printout says- but it's just not that cut and dried. To succeed you have to be able to think abstractly and not just read what's in black or white.
Pioneer has a lot of jealousy issues over me. I would not be surprised if at least half of his posts are aimed at trying to "take me down" for a lack of better words- or as he calls it "my agenda".Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
See the thread where he apparently archived some of my posts from about six months back in a lame attempt to discredit me.
I've been a big proponent of dropping Schafer to bring up Cunningham. Todd profiles as a 4th outfielder.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Another guy to keep an eye on is Kyle Wren, who is a player that is combining getting on base with tremendous speed on the base paths. He had a .365 OBP at high A Lynchburg and was 33 of 42 on stolen bases, and now at Mississippi, he has a .444 OBP with 3 stolen bases in 3 chances.
That would be OK if managers/coaches actually stopped going with a guy who was on a hot streak that has cooled off, but in reality, it doesn't work that way. When we do not pay attention to the numbers, we convince ourselves that the hot streak is what the player will be going forward, and when he gets cold, we continue to play him to see if he can get hot again. It's human nature to do that when you decide that trusting your eyes is more important than trusting the data that is presented to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
And of course, jose peraza at 2b. It'll be interesting next season if jose overtakes lastellaQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
I'd move Peraza to 3B and dump Chris Johnson, but we had to give Chris that extension that made very little sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Not a dislike. Just indifference. Same with the Saints.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
From what I hear Jose projects as a gold glove type player at 2b. Not sure the braves would make this move. I'm happy with lastella's all around game though, so I wouldn't be opposed to peraza at 3bQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Show me, Todd, where a player's HOT streak is a good predictor of his next game's performance . OF COURSE a season is not evenly distributed but the streaks aren't determined by a magical "hot" or "cold". Its the natural randomness that is baseball.
Here is the numbers showing that "hot" and "cold" streaks are not predictive of anything.
http://books.google.com/books?id=ssA...page&q&f=false
You are the one who doesn't REALLY understand the game.. "49 runs over the course of a season is negligible" proved that. You WANT so badly for the game to fit your mold but the reality of the situation is so plain to see and that upsets you.
The thing is, if you look at BJ's numbers that he has put up as a lead off hitter, it's not really a hot streak. It is considered to be a hot streak by some because he has been so bad for 500 some odd at bats over the past year plus. When you look at his career numbers, these last 12 games can actually be looked at as a case where he is regressing towards his mean.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
Think about it this way. His triple slash numbers in the four years prior to coming to Atlanta:
2009 -- .241/.313/.373
2010 -- .237/.322/.424
2011 -- .243/.331/.439
2012 -- .246/.298/.454
During his "hot" streak -- .283/.313/.457
From an OBP and SLG standpoint, this is basically what he was prior to his first year in Atlanta. His average is higher, but his BB% is lower. The higher average coincides with a diminished K rate, but I anticipate both of these will trend toward his mean. His BABIP as a lead off hitter is .361 this year, and that will trend towards .300, which will cause his AVG to drop to his mean.
My concern is whether a new mean has been set. I think his ability to hit the fastball has declined, and as a result, he's not as patient as he typically has been. His BB% has been cut in half, and that is a concern.
Here's the thing though. Even at his mean, he's not good enough to be a lead off hitter, and it is likely that he would have regressed towards this mean regardless of where he was hitting in the line up.
Another thing is people are equating "hitting streak" to "hot streak". Hitting streaks are fun but pretty blah in terms of actual meaning.
Upton's last 14 days have been at a .309 wOBA clip. Not "hot" at all. La Stella has been at a .345 clip over the same time period.
Like KB said, BJ has been so awful that this short period of slightly below average (league wOBA is .312) is seen as something to celebrate.
Once again, more evidence that he is actually regressing towards his mean. His wOBA in the years I mentioned above are .306, .328, .333, and .323. This is a situation where he is still not good, but he is less bad than what he has been previously in Atlanta. The problem with this is that Fredi will not move him from this spot if he continues this, and this will ultimately cost the Braves runs over the rest of the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
So, what's Upton going to do tomorrow? You tell me right now based on whatever you want to use. You have 24 hours from the time I post this. You can say 0-4 and you might be right. You might not. And I want specifics- how many K's, hits, and walks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg
We don't have the benefit of a crystal ball that tells us what someone is going to do tomorrow. There is nothing out there that can definitively tell us what a player is or isn't going to do. We can look at stats and have an educated guess- but it's only that. It's a guess.
All a manager has to go on is how that player is doing currently. They can see if a player is seeing and hitting the ball well. They can use stats as an adjunct to see if they hit a pitcher well or not. I don't know what I'm going to do tomorrow in my daily life. I guarantee you that if the manager did have something that would tell them that from day to day and that a player would go 0-4 they would definitely do it. All you really have is something that only tells us what to expect over the course of 162 games which is totally different from day to day. You see forest, but you aren't looking at the trees.
No one on here is saying that a guy going on a hot streak is "predictive" of a guy staying hot and it continuing throughout the entire year at all, or even tomorrow for that matter. What we're saying is you keep playing that guy as long as he is hot because no one- including you, Bill James, Tom Tango, Harold Reynolds, etc. knows when that is going to end. So, it makes the most sense to all of us with a brain to keep playing that guy while he is being productive.
All you did is basically wait around after 9 WINS to say "see I'm right". And I guarantee you that the Braves fans are happy about that.
If you want me to buy what you are selling- show me something that tells me what these guys are going to do tomorrow. Because you don't have it because it's not out there.
And really? A guy wrote a chapter in a book about how hot streaks will end at some point? LOL.
What's Chapter 3? You are more likely to get a hit if you use a bat?
I laughedQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
The point of the chapter is that a hot streak is defined as a streak where a player produces numbers that are out of the ordinary and higher than what his career has been, whereas a cold streak is when a player produces numbers that are much lower than what his career norm is. The whole point of making decisions based upon streaks is that they are not sustainable, and you should be making your decisions based on what the player is the majority of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Do you really think that managers in MLB with analytics depts. don't look at stats and data?Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
I'd say that a majority of managers in MLB intentionally do not pay attention to the data.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Remember the scene in Moneyball where Billy Beane goes to Art Howe and tells him that he should be playing Scott Hatteburg because of his superior OBP rather than Carlos Pena, who was a low contact, low OBP, high power guy back then? Art Howe's response was that he didn't care about hatteberg's OBP, and that Pena was the starting 1st baseman. IMO, that is the typical response from MLB managers when looking at the data. I think there are actually very few MLB managers that really pay attention to the data. Most manage on gut feeling, and the league's worst IMO is Kirk Gibson with Don Mattingly not far behind him.