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The R0 of the flu is that low due to a vaccine being available. R0 value fluctuates drastically per region with any new virus. If we didn't haven't a vaccine for the flu it would kill far more people than Covid is currently.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Well...there were 100 million people living in America in 1918. Now we have 330 million so, densly populated cities, and fast transportation connecting it all...that makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 75k January - July. That predates vaccines and was the worst flu in US history.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
It also killed like 700,000 in that year.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
We have also had a shitload of advances in medicine since 1918. Ventilators for one. How many people would be dead from covid if we had the same medical care as 1918?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
700k from 1918-1920Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
I thought we were talking R0 values of the current flu vs Covid not the Spanish Flu.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Either way, R0 values are fluid and can change from day to day, region to region, etc.
This lousy thread has pushed my blocked list to capacity
Yep, and a whole heck of a lot of the elderly that died to covid19 would've been dead already in 1918Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
No way to know really but I would say probably about the same because all I've heard from media outlets from day 1 is that nothing is really effective in treating Covid and ventilators are basically useless beyond prolonging suffering. So...they had masks in 1918.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
This is literally what the doctors in Tennessee were arguing last week when they lobbied the governor to enact statewide mandates regarding Covid safety. So if nothing is effective in treating Covid and no one understands it and it's basically a death sentence (as many want us to believe) then modern medicine doesn't matter....right?
Ventilators would have still been ineffective then. Cytokine storm is what killed people and vast majority in their 20s and early 30s. They died like 2 or 3 days after developing symptoms due to Cytokine storm. Folks that died would change color to blue or black from such a quick depletion of oxygen.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
That's the very conservative estimate.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Elderly actually survived it much better due to immune systems not being so responsive to flu's invasion into the body. The vast majority of folks that died were in 20s and 30s.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Read The Great Influenza. That flu is much worse than this one. Survival rate for folks in 20s and 30s was almost nonexistent.
I concur with dawgday; The Great Influenza is an excellent and informative book.
I think it would be less deadly for them because they wouldn't be sitting ducks in a nursing home and the nation was far more rural. Alzheimer's also wasn't as big.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
That estimate is based on excess deaths. There were 150,000 excess deaths from March - June 13th this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
But like you said, there's a huge difference in the age group that is dying.
Getting back to the point of all this, I really don't think that "way more people would die from the flu" if we had no flu vaccine. Excess deaths could be > 300k by the end of this year. Using the worst flu in our history as a benchmark, covid is still outpacing it.
It was well over 600,000 from 1918-1919 and it didn't start really until late Feb. in 1918. From Sept-Dec it wiped out everyone. Then slowed back down.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Covid didn't really start until late Feb in 2020. Hopefully history won't repeat itself this fall. Covid + the flu season could be bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
That flu/Covid combo will lock down hospitals, even if it's not bad. You're effectively doubling everything even if it's an average flu season.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
This exactly. As I stated previously: the flu season taxes hospital capacity every year. It is not uncommon for hospitals to divert critical care and emergency patients to other hospitals due to over-capacity issues during a REGULAR flu season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
This is why I don't understand moving fall sports back further into the flu season. It's dumb. They should actually be starting sooner rather than later.
Nearly everyone who has been hospitalized. Certainly almost everyone who had to have oxygen would be.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Dude that last sentence is total bs. You just made that up. It infected nearly every soldier on the Western Front. It went through military training camps here like wildfire. We still fought the war.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
It did NOT wipe out everyone. Jeez .Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
I don't know of anything that's effective in treating mild cases of Covid (non hospitalized cases), but they clearly have improved the treatment for people requiring hospitalization. Remdesivir appears to be a big reason for that, though I'm sure there are other factors involved. But the fact that death rates have gone down tells me that they've made significant strides in treating hospitalized cases if nothing else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Let me rephrase. Not everyone did become infected although infection rate was really high. And if I recall correctly the mortality rate of people in their 20s and 30s was very high ... estimated to be like 20 to 30 percent if I recall correctly. So yea ... my statement wasn't accurate. However, the mortality rate for any demographic during Covid has not been nowhere near that high. So I would stand by my belief that pandemic was much worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
This sums it up pretty well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Although, I don't know if there is anyone on Earth who could've made the right call on any of this. I'm not sure what anyone would consider "passing" for any set of leaders or govt.
If you believed the gov't had your interest before any of this, or still believe any reports about the pandemic numbers that are coming out to be accurate, that is just being naive. Whether there is an agenda or not behind a particular report doesn't change anything. It pollutes stuff but ultimately there isn't one ultimate source that has it all right and is at the center of it all. People's expectations with response and reaction to this are off the charts how unattainable that really was. And that's their own fault.
It's going to run its course. Vaccine or not. 100% of people will never take that vaccine. Masks won't be worn forever (but may slow the spread). It will become a part of life. Just like the flu has. We adapt, and learn how to handle it and work against it. It's being a human.
Your literal interpretation is correct. But I wasn't speaking in literal terms.Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
If Trump was totalitarian, he would have moved into Minneapolis, Chicago, ATL, NY, and Seattle CHAZ (or CHOP) with Federal troops. Instead, he sat back and watched them sadly burn and self-destruct with no law enforcement and deaths abound. The Govs and Mayors didn't want his help just because of who he is and the party he represents.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg2003
Bingo. And Trump has not oppressed the people in any way. He's made life better for them in numerous ways most significantly by shutting down drug trade from below the border (reason for the Wall), shutting down sex trafficking and pedos, and bringing jobs back to America ... jobs Obama/Biden said "would never return".Quote:
Originally Posted by MaroonFlounder
On the flip side, he has used laws THEY CREATED (to be used against the people) to go after some high-level, extremely corrupt folks. These are laws that were created before Trump and were not supposed to be used against the elite or the creators of the corrupt law, but to be used against the people.
Folks seem to forget about The Homeland Security Act, Wikileaks, Snowden & NSA, etc. Talk about Totalitarianism. And also the wake of dead bodies associated with those leaders (especially Clinton).
Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Canada, ****in' China, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Singapore, Poland, Switzerland, Ireland, Japan, Austria, South Korea, Czech Republic, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Croatia, Greece, Thailand, Uruguay, Paraguay, Slovakia, Iceland, Australia, Cambodia, Lithuania, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Vietnam seem to have figured it outQuote:
Originally Posted by StateDawg44
FederalismQuote:
Originally Posted by MaroonFlounder
Bingo! Rep Given, well I tried to but I have to spread it around more first!.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Or maybe they just hit their spike ahead of us.....time will tell.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
As a group I'm not sure what Europe would be doing so much different than us beyond the argument that they are outside all the time now and don't use as much large scale indoor AC.
Are you arguing that the way to figure it out is to let it burn through your population? Because it looks like you've got the 1st (Belgium), third (Spain), 4th (Italy), and 6th (France) worst performing countries on your list of countries that have figured it out as far as deaths per capita goes.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I don't think we're going to have a good idea of who has done well until we get through this winter. I suspect USA will move up on that list (currently we're 7th) through the summer and then look a lot better after the winter. But even then, we'll need a lot more time to really figure out how we did because the results will be skewed by population makeup just like they are with things like life expectancy.
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Thought on TX?
The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting ?probable? cases for people never actually tested, as ?confirmed? positive cases.- TDHS
They're probably not having political rallies during it, nor have their leaders dismissed the virus by saying multiple times that it will "magically" go away... but it may actually be indoor air conditioningQuote:
Originally Posted by Irondawg
It hit those countries hard then they got it under control. It didn't burn through their population. Spain's seroprevalence is ~5% across the country, up to 15% in Madrid.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Sounds like ny and nj and penn. I imagine fla and Tex and cal will follow suit.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
https://i.imgur.com/pFYxwb5.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Maybe we'll figure it out by the end of the year, but I'd rather be headed into the fall in one of those 4 countries' positions.
Speaking of Spain, they have their largest case day since May 22nd. They've been creeping up, and then a pretty big jump today.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I think some of the issue comparing european countries to the US is the size difference. The virus seems to be just getting prevalent in parts of the US. Hell, isn't Texas bigger than most the European countries we're comparing to?