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I wouldn't think you could apply that uniformly across all age groups. There are less asymptomatic cases as you go higher in age. Therefore, as you go higher in age, infections are more likely to get tested and reported.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
Prob so. Prob more like x 20 factor for under 25 and x 5 factor for over 55.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
I don't think it's just the stats that show deaths are a lagging indicator. From case reports, we know that people usually spend weeks in the hospital before they die.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
But stats do show this as well. If you look at the states with the worst outbreaks that started increasing mid-June, it's pretty clear:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcrXrWtU...ng&name=medium
If you have type A blood, you might wanna invest in a high quality mask...
https://www.pix11.com/news/national/...ty-of-covid-19
https://i.postimg.cc/zv16wGm1/859-FC...A448367470.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
https://i.postimg.cc/VkNTWhh5/1932-B...-F98-CE512.jpg
If deaths lag 4-weeks, then we gotta figure the absolute peak of cases was around March 18th. The 7-day case avg on March 18th was 1,147, so we were way off on cases. This also makes me believe COVID19 has been here much longer than we thought.
Well, if they finding it in sewage samples from November in Brazil - odds are it was here much earlier than thought.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....26.20140731v1
Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.
Thoughts??
Probably why cases are "exploding" in some places and deaths are still decreasing. Of course the virus could've mutated too ... which would be a good thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
Nostradamus predicted an earthquake to hit CA in 2020 with most of CA going into Pacific. I wish it would hurry up and happen ****** He also predicted one to hit NYC sometime in 2050 or so too I believe ... dammit why so long out ******Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Something really interesting happened last night.
Got Covid-19 tests results back in under an hour....
How the **** did that happen?
Teachers Union asking to defund police but will be screaming and crying for their help during the next school shooting.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Good luck with that.
Someone I know got tested last Tuesday and still hasn't gotten results back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?
I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.
Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.
CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?
It will depend on the degree to which asymptomatic cases can spread the virus. It is certainly better for those 40% who get it and get over it quickly (as long as there are no long term after effects). It makes it much harder to keep the virus away from the vulnerable.
Technically it was over the phone.... but yes from his mouthQuote:
Originally Posted by StateDawg44
I believe, if contagious while asymptomatic, it would be bad news. It also would be interesting to know if these asymptomatic folks carried antibodies that kept them from getting it again. It is impossible to know because testing levels are not there.Quote:
Originally Posted by William Tecumsah Sherman
Does anyone think it would be worth it to spend 10 billion a week on testing? If everyone in every state were tested every month, contact tracing could enter into the covid playbook. We could all go about our lives with much less restrictions. The economy, after a month or two could pretty much get back to 100%. 10 billion seems doable considering the fed has pumped 3 trillion into the economy as of last month.
Can we keep the conspriracy theories out of this discussion?Quote:
Originally Posted by StateDawg44
The higher the percent of asymptomatic cases, the lower the infection fatality rate will turn out to be. To the extent asymptomatic people spread the disease, the harder it will be to contact trace. But we're so far away from being able to contact trace, I would say that's pretty much irrelevant for now, so it's more or less just good news. That would put the best estimate of the IFR at something like .2%, which is very manageable, it just still results in a lot of deaths when you have a population that has never been exposed.Quote:
Originally Posted by William Tecumsah Sherman
If 50% of the population ends up getting it, and the IFR is .2%, then that would be 325k deaths in the US. If it were .1%, then that'd be 162.5k deaths. We're already at 137k deaths, so 162.5k would be pretty optimistic at this point.
Why start nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
All I did was ask a question. Quit being so defensive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
What makes it a conspiracy theory? I heard a similar story as someone else in a totally different state and totally different situation. Same results though.
I have no agenda. Pretty strange coincidence.
https://i.postimg.cc/j5hHW89y/5503-B...4202-A27-E.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by hacker
https://twitter.com/fox35amy/status/...430340610?s=21
Is this for real? I mean wtfQuote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Good info on herd immunity studies. We are much closer than we think. NY seems to have reached it.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...rticle/614035/
Then there is this:Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....09.20148429v1
Did you read the disclaimer?Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
There is a thought out there that FL numbers are being pushed in this direction since they were doing so well early on. I'm just glad this reporter questioned the validity of the reportQuote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
It doesn't really make sense to falsify the numbers of positive test cases to make them higher because that would decrease the death rate.
Shut downs and openings are based on positive % of tests.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg2003
I suspect it's more about laziness than trying to push numbers one way or the other.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg2003
Give 1,000 tests, get back 150 positive results, and just report 150 positive tests and don't take the presumably 7 seconds it would take to report the negative results. Or maybe a clinic isn't even keeping a running tally, so they go back and count the positive results but don't bother counting the tests given. Who knows.
Agreed. Case count matters, but in an ideal world - if you have a high positive case count, you want to see low hospitalization and mortality rates. Mortality is only important to track the potency of the virus, but the hospitalization number is the key. As long as hospitals can treat and release without getting overwhelmed - we're in good shape.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
I said this a month or so ago, whatever numbers your reading - they're manipulated. You can find data to support whatever position you have, as the situation is too political. It's sad because there are a lot of areas and hospitals that are on diversion and the general public believes that is a hoax as well.
No clear answer yet, but many believe the answer to immunity lies in T cells. Not the presence of antibodies alone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg
Either way, I think if we can get to 70k documented cases in MS we will be ok. NY has 430k cases, 20 million people. Little over 2%. Using the cdc x 10 factor, between 20-25%. That's where we need to get to, 70k documented cases (700k cases using the x 10 factor). Late August.
New death highs in Alabama. That darn media trying to panic me again.
https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/alab...mpression=true
Last 3 day avg including today's 40 deaths is 16.7. Here's Alabama's 3-day avg chart...Quote:
Originally Posted by Turfdawg67
https://i.postimg.cc/FzDXm473/5-DFC4...1371-D5868.jpg
So we really aren't seeing anything alarming, yet. Let's see what the next few days bring.
Why the 3 day average and not the 7 day option?Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Is there something special about looking at the data in 3 day segments?
I don't see his posts, but I'm guessing because it's higher. LolzQuote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
One of my best friend is an ICU nurse in Jackson hours cut back this week
I think you should look at both. I actually like 7-day avg the best. In this case though, Alabama had 3 deaths and 7 the previous 2 days, so I think a big day was expected soon. Yesterday's 7-day was tied with March 12th for the highest at 17. Today's is 21. Something to keep an eye on for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Mods don?t get mad it?s just the OG covid thread is 50 miles long
https://twitter.com/fox35amy/status/...430340610?s=21