Our path to a Regional...

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

I could be totally wrong but i think the team catches fire now.

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We'll probably win UK and OM series then lose to Mizzou and not make regional due to that. Most Miss St thing likely to occur.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...f-64-april-30/

Despite everything, Baseball America has us at #4 in the First Four Out. If we can win the series this weekend, we can probably get into the field of 64.

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D1Baseball has us as the 3rd team out:
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/20...f-64-april-30/

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

D1Baseball has us as the 3rd team out:
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/20...f-64-april-30/

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It's actually incredible with as volatile as we have been, we could still make it.

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Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

It's actually incredible with as volatile as we have been, we could still make it.

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That's what happens when you're a blueblood.

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

RPI to 38

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

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Start talking about 14-15 sec wins.....that would be a wonderful end to the season.

A win tomorrow puts us in really good shape. Even if we lose, we still have a plausible path.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

A win tomorrow puts us in really good shape. Even if we lose, we still have a plausible path.

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If we get to 14 SEC wins we should be a lock. Would love to sweep tomorrow. Next weekend will be electric.

4 more SEC wins are we are in

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Suddenly things are looking good for us.

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Yeah. I think a strong finish- 2/3 against UK (check), 2/3 against Ole Miss, and a sweep against Mizzou might be good enough to get us a 2 seed potentially.

Also, the committee looks at what you did your last ten games and we are in that territory now more than likely.

Could end up with a RPI in the low 30's high 20's with a strong finish.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

4 more SEC wins are we are in

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5

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Originally Posted by Coach34

4 more SEC wins are we are in

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It would suck to draw a #4 MSU team in regional.

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Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

5

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I'm afraid this might be the correct answer.

Three wins against Missouri sounds good, but they are winless in conference. Winless. 0-23 with an RPI over 150.

It might take 5 more wins to get us there because our upper 30s RPI is going to take a late season hit with North Alabama and 3 against Missouri.

Everything is different now. We are a game ahead of this pace now. 3 more wins gets us to 13-17, and 4 more gets us to 14-16 and a sure bid to a Regional. And while you can never count on a sweep, especially on the road, Missouri is so bad that we probably will sweep them.

Are we a lock? No, if we get swept next weekend we're probably out, and if we only win 1, I'm not comfortable unless we sweep Missouri. But suddenly I think we're probably going to get in, and just like in 2018, we can even start talking about creeping up to a 2 seed.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

• ❌✅✅ South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
• ✅✅❌ @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
• ❌❌✅ Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
• ❌✅❌ @ Auburn - again maybe 1
• ✅✅✅ Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
• Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
• @ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

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RPI sitting at 31 currently

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

Everything is different now. We are a game ahead of this pace now. 3 more wins gets us to 13-17, and 4 more gets us to 14-16 and a sure bid to a Regional. And while you can never count on a sweep, especially on the road, Missouri is so bad that we probably will sweep them.

Are we a lock? No, if we get swept next weekend we're probably out, and if we only win 1, I'm not comfortable unless we sweep Missouri. But suddenly I think we're probably going to get in, and just like in 2018, we can even start talking about creeping up to a 2 seed.

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It was very hard to imagine this without an in season move. Thankfully Zac made the move and the team has responded. Still work to do but we have a chance. Incredible.

15 sec wins is seriously creeping into possibility. Im not crazy enough to type the next number.

Need 4 of the next 6. Completely doable at this point.

I had written this team off, but they've responded with the coaching change. They're much more relaxed and aren't pressing as much. They've actually been... dare I say... fun? to watch?

Let's win the series vs. the Confederates next week and then sweep Mizzou to get to .500 in league play and then go 17 up somebody else's regional.

I've been saying the talent has always been here. Recruiting has never been our issue. Maximizing the players we recruit has, and I can't say for certain that it's because of how we approach player development or the cultural effect of having a head coach who is essentially completely hands off on everything. Maybe it's a combination of the two, but it just seems to me that our coaching is more in tune with our players now, and our players are more in tune with the situations now. Confidence is such a big aspect of baseball, and this team has played with some confidence and swagger over the past 4 games.